Thread: Say It Ain't So, Tingles! MSNBC's Matthews Says Dems Could Lose 10 Senate Seats In Th

Harry Reid’s Attack On The Constitution Backfires

September 11, 2014 by Chip Wood

FILE

No sooner had nastily partisan Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid declared the Senate back in session after its five-week summer recess than he launched a one-two punch that he was sure would score points for Democrats in the upcoming elections. Reid is desperate to preserve the Democratic majority in the Senate — and his plush and powerful position as majority leader.
First, he took to the Senate floor to launch another one of his frothing-at-the-mouth diatribes against those notorious Koch brothers, whom he claims are using their vast wealth to purchase elections for the far right. He never mentions, of course, that conservative Republicans are routinely outspent by wealthy liberal Democrats. He knows that the mainstream media is delighted to help hide the truth and play along with this charade.
But Reid’s angry and dishonest rhetoric was just Part 1 of his cynical campaign. Part 2 was for the Democrats to introduce a new constitutional amendment that would allegedly “correct” the problem, by overriding the freedom-of-speech guarantees in the 1st Amendment.
Just how bad is this Democratic proposal? National Review described it as “an attack on basic human rights, the Constitution, and democracy itself.” It said the measure “would invest Congress with blanket authority to censor newspapers and television reports, ban books and films, and imprison people for expressing their opinions. So long as two criteria are met — the spending of money and intending to influence an election — the 1st Amendment would no longer apply.”
Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was equally alarmed. He described the bill as “bar none the most radical proposal that has been considered by the United States Senate in the time I have served.”
But the fact is, the bill had absolutely no chance of passage — and Reid knew it. In fact, he was counting on the Republicans’ not even allowing it to be debated on the floor of the Senate. This would give the Democrats some powerful sound bites for campaign attack ads. “See? The Republicans block all of our efforts to prevent those evil billionaires from buying elections.”
But the Republicans derailed Reid’s scheme by actually agreeing to consider the measure. Here’s how Politico described what happened:

Several Senate Republicans joined Democrats on Monday to advance a constitutional amendment that would give Congress and the states greater power to regulate campaign finance.
But the bipartisanship ends there.
Many of the Republicans only voted for the bill to foul up Democrats’ pre-election messaging schedule, freezing precious Senate floor time for a measure that ultimately has no chance of securing the two-thirds support necessary in both the House and the Senate to amend the Constitution.

Thanks to that Republican support, the vote to advance the bill — and, thus, require floor debate — passed by 79-18. Reid was furious that his scheme had collapsed. He said it was all part of a nefarious Republican plot to “stall” other action in Senate.
Sorry, Harry. Now you won’t be able to introduce some of your other go-nowhere grandstand plays this week, such as gender pay equity and raising the minimum wage.
That’s the kind of games the Democrats who control the Senate have been playing this week. It’s no surprise that Reid is terribly worried, as he sees the Democratic majority in the Senate — and his position as majority leader — slipping away.
You can bet that he’ll dream up several other slimy stunts over the next couple of months. Desperate people do desperate things. And Reid is getting desperate.
Until next time, keep some powder dry.
–Chip Wood
Note: The biggest story of the day was, of course, President Obama’s televised address last night. Because of PLD deadlines, I had to turn in this column yesterday morning. I’ll have a lot to say about Obama’s warmongering in subsequent columns.


http://personalliberty.com/harry-rei...ion-backfires/

Republicans Consider Using Reconciliation Legislation If They Take The Senate

September 11, 2014 by McClatchy-Tribune

THINKSTOCK

WASHINGTON (MCT) — Republicans are beginning to focus on what they could accomplish through budget reconciliation next year if the GOP takes control of the Senate.
They could use the filibuster-proof reconciliation process to pass budget-related measures — including an overhaul of entitlement programs, changes to the tax code and even raising the debt limit — assuming Republicans in the two chambers could put aside their differences and agree on a fiscal 2016 budget resolution. Much of the early discussion also centers on repealing parts of the Affordable Care Act and advancing the GOP’s energy agenda.
Some Republicans savor the thought of confronting President Barack Obama with legislation that he would be forced to sign or veto.
“It’s a whole different context when you put a real tax reform bill on his desk that doesn’t raise taxes and does the right kind of things in our tax code, and he’s got to take a stand,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). “You put those good pieces of legislation on the president’s desk and you make him deal with it.”
House GOP leaders have started to solicit ideas for what could be included in a reconciliation bill. Several people outside Congress said Republicans are circulating documents that discuss the possible uses of reconciliation, and other budget issues.
“The things I have heard people talk about are they could do some tax changes, which I think they’d like to do,” said Jim Dyer, a principal at the Podesta Group and former staff director of the House Appropriations Committee. “They are talking about energy issues. I would expect one of the things that the Republicans can do some good with, I think, is to try to develop the seeds of a national energy policy, perhaps relaxing oil and energy exports.”
Dyer added that reconciliation could be used to “take a good hard look at the EPA, at its regulations, to try to strike a more effective balance between regulating, between the economy and perhaps assuaging the concerns of those who are worried about the environment.”
Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, said Republicans are even talking about using reconciliation to make changes in the civil justice system, or “tort reform,” which they believe would reduce the frequency or cost of lawsuits and make healthcare less expensive.
Norquist expects the GOP to advance sweeping budget-related legislation dealing with Medicare and Medicaid, similar to proposals envisioned in past budget resolutions written by outgoing House Budget Chairman Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.).
Obama is likely to veto such legislation, but Norquist said the GOP can then appeal to voters. “You go to the American public and say, ‘In the next election when we have a president who can reform it, we can eliminate this much debt and unfunded liability.'”
Reconciliation legislation can be passed in the Senate with a simple majority, rather than a much harder to achieve three-fifths vote.
But the procedure is governed by strict limitations. In the Senate, for example, provisions can be struck from reconciliation legislation by a point of order if they don’t have any budgetary impact or just an incidental budget impact. Budget law also generally prohibits the use of reconciliation bills to make changes in Social Security.
It will also be a significant challenge for Republicans to forge compromises, because of what would likely be a very small Senate majority if they retake the leadership, and to agree on a budget resolution, given the gulf between conservative House lawmakers and some more moderate GOP senators.
Many House and Senate Republicans favor using reconciliation, and some expect it to be employed next year. The last time the procedure was used was in 2010, when Democrats controlled both chambers and passed a reconciliation bill as part of the healthcare law.
“The only thing that matters in those budget packages is reconciliation instructions,” said Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Ga.), a member of the House Budget Committee and the recently elected chairman of the Republican Study Committee. “Everybody in this building knows if we’re going to save Social Security and Medicare for future generations, if we’re going to take the worry out of those programs, if we’re going to deal with Social Security disability insurance, it’s going to be done through reconciliation instructions.”
Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a member of the Senate Budget Committee, would like to see reconciliation instructions to overhaul the tax code, make changes in entitlement programs and raise the debt limit, which is currently suspended until March 15. “We are going to have to deal with the debt limit again,” Portman said. “Most people think that has to be dealt with again next year. So I just want to be sure that we have a plan to get some reforms in place.”
The GOP could package a debt-limit increase with other provisions to cut mandatory spending programs and change tax policy, potentially presenting Obama with a difficult decision. Congress alternatively could pass separate reconciliation bills for taxes, spending and the debt limit.
Jordan favors using reconciliation. “You could use it to get after spending, some of the forms on the mandatory side which is where the growth is, and changes obviously, looking at things you can do with health care, Obamacare and the tax code,” he said.
Reconciliation instructions “suddenly make whatever’s in the budget look more appealing than it would be without those legislative tools that you don’t have without the budget,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.).
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) also supports reconciliation. “I don’t see how you could do the financial things and really address the entitlement crisis that we have without doing that,” he said.
–Paul M. Krawzak
CQ Roll Call
___
(c)2014 CQ Roll Call
Visit CQ Roll Call at www.rollcall.com.
Distributed by MCT Information Services.


http://personalliberty.com/republica...n-take-senate/

Conservative Daily

You go, Nancy...




Nancy Pelosi Goes Full Beast Mode on Apocalyptic Fear-Mongering on What Happens if GOP Wins Senate
Well, that's a "refreshingly honest" take...
ijreview.com

Nancy Pelosi Goes Full Beast Mode on Apocalyptic Fear-Mongering on What Happens if GOP Wins Senate

12,289 Shares By Kyle Becker 15 hours ago



You go, Nancy…

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/09/1775...p-wins-senate/

Conservative Daily

Huge shakeup over the past week...




Last Week's Political Polls Show the Fight for 2014 Between GOP and Dems Just Got Way Clearer
Are we about to see a GOP-majority Congress?
ijreview.com


Last Week’s Political Polls Show the Fight for 2014 Between GOP and Dems Just Got Way Clearer

2,381 Shares By Caroline Schaeffer 5 hours ago

If this composite RealClearPolitics poll is any indication, support for the Republican Party is gaining momentum, and it could be at the perfect time for the GOP. Candidates are nearing the home stretch, with only 50 days to go before the 2014 midterm elections.:



After trailing Democrats for most of the summer, the Republicans have taken a 3.9 point lead on the generic ballot, according to a composite of polls from 6 outlets, all of which have the GOP ahead of the Democrats.
So what has cause this resurgence of hope for the Grand Old Party?
Hot Air points to the seemingly endless issues the Obama administration has had on the foreign policy front. The effects of Obamacare are still causing some vulnerable Democrats strife. And home-front issues like the VA scandal have left many with a bad taste in their mouth.
Democrats are likely to pull out all the stops in the next 50 days to jump back ahead of Republicans. But come Election Day, the American people will decide whether it’s too little, too late.

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/09/1779...perfect-storm/

http://www.alipac.us/f9/democrat-par...8/#post1436970

http://www.alipac.us/f9/redstate-cle...resign-311543/

Drudge Report

DEMS FACE SHUTOUT IN OHIO



Fumbled Bid for Governor Imperils Ohio Democrats
Democrats had hoped a rousing fight in 2014 would energize the party’s grass roots and carry into the next presidential contest. Instead, they are facing a shutout in statewide races.
www.nytimes.com|By TRIP GABRIEL

Fumbled Bid for Governor Imperils Ohio Democrats

By TRIP GABRIEL SEPT. 28, 2014

Article at the page link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/29/us...rats.html?_r=0

Republican Governors Association

Asa Hutchinson is a principled candidate with years of experience in business and public service, and there's no doubt his commitment to growing Arkansas’ economy, creating jobs, and making the state competitive again – things that really matter to Arkansans – will drive him to victory this November.



Arkansas Is Likely the Next State to Turn Red
Arkansas' outgoing Democratic governor is one of the most popular governors in the country, but his successor may be a Republican he's already beat.
governing.com

Arkansas Is Likely the Next State to Turn Red

Arkansas' outgoing Democratic governor is one of the most popular governors in the country, but his successor may be a Republican he's already beat.

by Alan Greenblatt | September 25, 2014

Most recent polls show the Republican candidate for Arkansas governor, Asa Hutchinson, with a small but steady lead of about five percentage points. AP/Danny Johnston
Mike Beebe, the Democratic governor of Arkansas, is one of the most popular state-level politicians in the country. Yet his successor is probably going to be a Republican.
The reason has less to do with state politics than the national scene. There aren't many places where President Obama is less popular than Arkansas.
A poll released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling showed that twice as many Arkansans disapprove of the job the president is doing, compared with those who do approve. His ratings among independents are especially horrible, with 80 percent disapproving and just 13 percent offering approval.

RELATED

• 2014 Governors Races: Where Republicans Are Likely to Win
• Arkansas' Game-Changing Medicaid Expansion Plan

And PPP is a Democratic firm.
Those sorts of numbers are creating a drag on the entire Democratic ticket and threaten to make this year the year that Arkansas, like so many Southern states before it, goes solidly red. "I don't think it's going to be a blowout at all, yet it's going to feel like a fairly big shift," said Jay Barth, a political scientist at Hendrix College in Conway, Ark. "A lot of the plates that have been moving really start to get locked in this time."
This has been happening throughout Obama's presidency. Two years ago, Republicans captured the legislature for the first time in 158 years. This November, they're confident they can solidify control by winning the governorship.
Most recent polls show their candidate, Asa Hutchinson, with a small but steady lead of about five percentage points. "We feel really good about where we are right now," said J.R. Davis, communications director for the Hutchinson campaign.
Democrats know they're making a last stand -- that losses this year could see them shut out of power for a generation. They've recruited good candidates, including former U.S. Rep. Mike Ross, the gubernatorial nominee. They've have raised a lot of money and are running what may prove to be the most ambitious turnout operation in the state's history.
But their hopes may depend to a large extent on Beebe, who isn't on the ballot. Beebe, who is term-limited, carried every county in the state four years ago and remains the most popular governor in the country, according to the PPP poll. "Congressman Ross needs to stick as close to Beebe as he can," said Steve Harrelson, a Democratic former state senator. "That's the only way he can be victorious in November."
Ross has been campaigning with Beebe and pledges to govern in the same style. Ross promises to continue the state's unique "private option" approach to Medicaid expansion and favors the minimum wage increase that's on the November ballot, which Democrats hope will help turn out their voters.
Hutchinson, a former member of Congress and Homeland Security official in the George W. Bush administration, has been more cagey, keeping quiet about health care and adopting different positionson the minimum wage increase. Hutchinson had initially opposed it, saying it was an issue better addressed by the legislature, but recently he said he would vote for the measure on the ballot.
Although he has touted an income tax cut, he says that Ross's tax overhaul plan would cost the state more than it can afford. Ross said during a debate last week that he "never thought I would see the day that a Republican candidate, Cong. Hutchinson here, would criticize me for wanting to cut people's taxes too much."
Despite the stakes, the governor's race has been overshadowed by the U.S. Senate race, which is one of this year's most expensive campaigns. "It's been very difficult for this race, even a pretty consequential governor's race, to break through the cacophony of the Senate race," Barth said.
Even as the state shifts toward the GOP, Hutchinson may benefit by seeming mild comparison with Rep. Tom Cotton, the Republican Senate nominee, whom Democrats have tried to paint as too extreme, said Hal Bass, a political scientist at Oachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia. In the governor's race, Ross has tried to make Hutchinson out as a Washington insider and lobbyist, while Hutchinson has not hesitated to link Ross not only to Obama but to Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the U.S. House. The Republican Governors Association has run a radio ad featuring a tune called "The Mike Ross-Obama-Pelosi Blues."
Brad Howard, spokesman for the Ross campaign, says such attacks don't help Hutchinson's case. "Mike Ross will win this election because Arkansans want steady, reliable leadership to fight for middle-class families in the fiscally responsible style of Gov. Mike Beebe," he said.
Beebe may lend Ross a lot of luster, and the Democratic ticket in the state may be running well, but the playing field may be tilted against them at this point, Bass suggests. "The Democrats are kind of playing musical chairs," he said. "When the music stops, not all of them are going to have chairs."
Democrats are hoping that isn't true. They want not only to hold onto the governorship and the Senate seat, but possibly win two seats they need to take back control of the state House.
Hutchinson may have lost to Beebe eight years ago -- one of his three previous statewide losses -- but at this point, he's a slight favorite.
"He'll be the first to tell you that his views haven't changed, but the state has changed," said Davis, his campaign spokesman. "It's a more Republican state, it's more conservative."

Alan Greenblatt | Staff Writer

---

agreenblatt@governing.com

http://www.governing.com/topics/elec...-race-red.html

Election Models: 2014 Could be Good Year For Senate Republicans

Daniel Doherty | Sep 30, 2014




Without glazing over the fact that Republicans could surprise no one and blow this historic opportunity, three separate election models indicate that the GOP’s chances of demoting Harry Reid and reclaiming majority control of the U.S. Senate have improved markedly over the past few days. The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza reports:

The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post's Election Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67 percent while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65 percent chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55 percent and FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55 percent.All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Republicans pick up all five of those seats. They may not, but let’s say they do. They would therefore need to pick up just one more to effectively end the Obama presidency from a legislative standpoint. After all, any meaningful legislation he'd hope to sign into law would need to pass both chambers of Congress -- and how likely is that to happen if Republicans are in control?
That being said, outside of Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Louisiana, there are several states where Republicans are gaining steam. Republican hopeful Joni Ernst in Iowa has widened the gap in her race significantly while Sens. Mark Begich (D-AK) and Mark Udall (D-CO) are faltering. (Udall’s gaffes and Begich’s scurrilous attack ads have damaged them both). And while Republican hopefuls in North Carolina and New Hampshire are currently behind, those races are tightening too.
Nonetheless, given these three election models have changed so drastically over a 7-day window, perhaps we shouldn't read too much into them. But with campaign season in full swing and Election Day mere weeks away, at least the experts broadly agree the trends are moving in the right direction.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/danield...campaign=nl_pm