Thread: Why I believe Republicans are in trouble this year.

Friends,

I have been studying the polling data, talking to consultants, and divining the entrails of a goat to do my best to figure out what is happening here.

It is true that Republican candidates across the nation and in NC are in real trouble. There is about a 5% to 10% lag in their support levels from what one would usually expect. That's a big problem considering that so many races are decided by less than a 10% margin.

There are many factors weighing against Republicans with swing voters or soft voters.

Factor 1:

George Bush has a low approval rating of only around 33%. There is a historic tendency for the party of the President to lose ground in midterm elections, but his very low approval ratings are compounding this trend. Voters are not happy. This is not a happy election. There is more of a sense of dread and dismay out there than excitement or energy in either direction. As the most visible person to vent these angers on, Bush is a problem for Republicans. He stuck his head in the VA Governor's race last year when his numbers were this low and he sank the GOP campaign in that state. His numbers have taken big dives each time he has come out talking about illegal immigration and his Guest Worker Amnesty Program.

The damn fool came out promoting his unpopular plan just two weeks ago leaving many of us wondering if he is secretly trying to give the Congress to the Democrats.

No campaign consultant in their right mind would have advised him to come out promoting that dead horse again considering the previous approval drops and increased waves of illegal aliens entering each time he talks about Guest Worker and Comprehensive Immigration Reform.

Bush's last minute actions are like throwing bricks to drowning grass roots Republicans in the house.

Item 2: There are lots of very bad things confronting voters that we did not have to deal with under Clinton. The war is going poorly and gas prices are miraculously changing once again just prior to the election. Hmmmm, when the economy was good and Al Gore was going to run on the good economy, up came the gas prices to slow things down. They dropped fast when Clinton mentioned a possible investigation. Then they went down again before the 04 elections and now again before 06. A lot of common folks out there are wondering that if the Democrats when, do we get to keep our low gas prices?

Item 3: Yes, there are reports that terrorists have endorsed Democrats again. Didn't they come out and endorse Kerry in 2004? It should be obvious to anyone with an IQ over 80 that if the terrorists wanted Democrats to win, they should have endorsed Republicans. Clearly, by supporting Democrats they are trying to provoke a reaction towards the Republicans. Why are terrorists and the people we are supposedly fighting trying to help Republicans? I'm sure the Bush administration is very upset that terrorists have endorsed the Democrats.

Item 4: IMMIGRATION

The Republicans in DC made a huge mistake throwing the issue on THE WALL.

By passing a bill supporting 700 miles of fencing, they threw this issue off of the issues that 80+% of the public want. Over 80% of the public wants employer enforcement, benefits cut off, and local police helping enforce immigration laws.

Support for a fence or wall is only around 56%!

By making their focus the WALL, Republicans have shot themselves in the foot by jumping for a lower ranked issue and avoiding the biggest problem which is EMPLOYERS. Democrats are eating Republicans alive in many districts pointing out that the Republicans want walls and not fines on employers.

This combined with the obvious fact that people like Bush and McCain are some of the real reasons we have an illegal immigration problem is creating a downward pressure on Republican support.

For those voters out there that do not know the good guys from the bad, do you really want increase support for Bush right now by voting for his Party?

Item 5: Evangelicals

Many of the Christian Conservatives are in an uproar about Bush and his spending and immigration policies. After two gay scandals in three weeks, the Evangelical voters are recoiling. If they do not show up on election day, then there goes a big piece of the support for immigration enforcement candidates.

It is very interesting to me that these releases of hidden information about the gay habits of Republicans is having the intended effect of suppressing the Christian Conservative vote.

I'm sure the globalists and the US Chamber of Commerce boys are grinning through their wicked teeth. Several media outlets are already starting to gloat and they are blaming the tough stance of candidates on immigration as the reason for their supposed downfall in a few days.

Hang in there folks, they announce they are going to hang Saddam on Sunday. Perhaps that calculated and arranged verdict will change the numbers.

W

You expressed the situation perfectly William. I've never seen a president split his party apart like Bush has. And McCain and others helped.
Yes, we'll hang in there, no matter what happens with the elections.
Thank you!

My suspicion is that the loyalty of Conservative voters is being grossly underestimated. Conservatives tend to be very vocal in their discontent, yet will bite the bullet and vote Conservative over Left when facing the tough choices in the election booth. However unhappy with their own party the Conservatives are, they wil not allow their discontent to manifest itself in the form of a Liberal majority.

I agree with Crockett. Although, I don't think it is loyalty so much as just common sense knowledge of how the world really works for conservatives. I can hardly think conservatives will look at the races and declare "everything I know is wrong" therefore I'll vote Democratic or stay home believing that will help.
I think the MSM campaign to show Dems on top of races might backfire. I think conservatives might be enjoying watching the Pol's squirm right up to Tuesday night though.

We shall see elections are the time to vote and walk the walk if you are a conservative. I have spoken with many people who have done nothing for our cause to secure our borders and enforce our laws as they feel their vote should cover it all. We shall see.....

The idiots may vote again for idiots in the house, don't be surprised,people are buying th Bush agenda, with out knowing they are hurting themselves and the rest of Us.

Originally Posted by redwhiteandbluelatino

The idiots may vote again for idiots in the house, don't be surprised,people are buying th Bush agenda, with out knowing they are hurting themselves and the rest of Us.

What "idiots in the house" are you talking about? The Republicans in the House have been strong allies in the fight against illegal immigrants. Just look at their voting records and compare them against the records of the damned Dems.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

My suspicion is that the loyalty of Conservative voters is being grossly underestimated. Conservatives tend to be very vocal in their discontent, yet will bite the bullet and vote Conservative over Left when facing the tough choices in the election booth. However unhappy with their own party the Conservatives are, they wil not allow their discontent to manifest itself in the form of a Liberal majority.

I totally agree and this is what I hear on the street. They are mad as hell, but they sure don't want Pelosi!

Americans in general are split. Friends and families are at odds with each other over what is happening. I have never seen people so divided as they are. It's scary and sad.

Originally Posted by bearpaw

Americans in general are split. Friends and families are at odds with each other over what is happening. I have never seen people so divided as they are. It's scary and sad.

Well, we are largely the victims of artificial commonality. The promise of a government of, by and for the People was destroyed when the nation's founding principles were betrayed by Lincoln. Prior to the Civil War, areas adhered to their own specific morals and ethics within a construct of a greater common ethic for the nation. The federal government, however, did not have the power to impose that group ethic on the divergent groups that made up the different regions of the nation. Today, we are crammed into a one size fits all ethic that does not sit well, one way or another, with the majority of Americans. While we fight over these moral and ethical questions, supranational forces use those divisions to hijack the agenda and steal our country.

If we are not allowed to get back to local rule and to get the federal government out of all those things its sticky fingers are not supposed to be poking into, we are going to lose this country.