Kellyanne's Take
What Might Have Been
11/05 11:27 AM


The situation in Iraq is on the ballot in every federal race Tuesday, with all candidates rightly being asked to explain past positions and specify future plans. The economy lingers, too, with Democrats talking minimum wage and making their base nostalgic for the Clinton years of “no deficits and middle class prosperity.” The President himself is pushing a job growth, tax-cutting message on GOP-friendly soil throughout the weekend.

Occasionally, a political ad or casual conversation might turn quickly to health care, education or even marriage if it is on that state’s ballot, but only for a sound bite. Abortion has been mentioned less by the Left during this cycle than in any other in recent memory, even by people usually obsessed with it, see, e.g., Nancy Pelosi. In Iraq, the Left has found an even more divisive issue that leads to early departures at dinner parties and arguments in the office cafeteria.

And the anti-gun crowd has mostly silenced its muskets in favor of Democratic candidates who make nice noises about the Second Amendment and beg the NRA for endorsements. This includes, not coincidentally, those Democrats most competitive in their U.S. Senate contests heading into Tuesday: Webb (VA), Ford (TN), McCaskill (MO), Tester (MT), and Casey (PA).

And then there is immigration. The hottest issue six short months ago (remember the May 1st walk-outs and protests in major cities?) and still a dominant one on talk radio and around kitchen tables in many areas, is all but ignored by both political parties. This is a mistake, especially for Republicans who should have more frequently embraced and more boldly articulated immigration reform on the campaign trail. In a recent CBS/New York Times Poll, after Iraq, IMMIGRATION WAS THE SECOND MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE THAT AMERCIANS WOULD MOST LIKE TO SEE CONGRESS CONCENTRATE ON NEXT YEAR. And Americans are clear how hat should be done.

Last month my firm conducted 15 surveys for the Center for Immigration Studies (full results) , across the country and in four states and 10 congressional districts locked in tight battles. A plurality of voters everywhere reported that immigration would be one of the top five issues influencing their votes for Congress. The national poll also found that the immigration proposal passed by the U.S. House – which has at its center tighter border security and stricter enforcement of current immigration laws to encourage illegal immigrants to go home over time – was by far the preferred policy of Americans. This held when the basics of the House plan were tested alone and when they were stacked up against other proposals.

Two-thirds (67%) of likely voters supported the House’s plan – more than 2.5 times the number who opposed it (26%) in a straight up or down test. These are dramatically higher marks than those afforded to the Senate’s plan which was rejected 61%-34%. Furthermore, when the House, Senate, Pence, and mass-deportation proposals were tested in a “head-to-head” contest, the House plan emerged the clear victor with a 44% plurality favoring it (over just 16% for the Senate plan).

Furthermore, Americans heralded this “attrition through enforcement” plan over both earned legalization and mass-deportation in a separate test (44% vs. 31% and 20%, respectively).

These data suggest a lost opportunity for nervous candidates whose consultants sitting in Washington counseled them to play its safe with shopworn ideas conceived in silos and tested in focus groups. As the finger-pointing begins, everything from low presidential approval ratings to high gas prices to the easiest scapegoats (DeLay, Foley, Ney) will be blamed by people who pocketed millions while their clients lost.

Immigration will eventually be thrown into the cauldron of GOP post-election self-loathing. It belongs there, but only because, ignoring the will of the people, most candidates decided to forget it or forego it, punting the matter into the next Congress. This has provided an additional reason for voters — including conservatives — to be frustrated with Washington and suspicious that, amidst all the polls, polite head-nodding and personal requests for input, no one is listening.
http://conways.nationalreview.com/