Thread: TKS UPDATE.....

10 pm update
11/07 10:11 PM
Wondering if the exit polls were way off, are the calls still using their concept of "key precincts"? Or are they looking for data incoming from far and wide?

Anyway. It looks like a long night, lots of close races. That last surge in the Republicans direction gave them a fighting chance in a lot of races they had been trailing, but a fighting chance is not the same as victory. We're going to have to wait up late and see; it's possible that the GOP ends up coming just short.

FL-13, KY-4, VA-2 - the GOP is getting some important holds; the "Blue Tidal Wave" is not likely to occur. But the Democrats may be getting on the other end of that 10 to 20 range I was looking at. Maybe more, we will see.

But some bad news - Nancy Johnson looks like she's going down in CT. Other CT races look real close.

But now I'm hearing from sources different vibe on Foley's seat, now it's looking better for the GOP.

UPDATE: Some bad breaks - Sodrel gone. Curt Weldon gone, which was widely predicted.

Of the four big states with multiple competitive House races - OH, PA, NY, IN, and CT, they all look like a bad night for Republicans.

OH-18 goes blue, Sherwood gone in PA 10 (expected. Key lesson: Don't choke your mistress). That House margin is closing fast.


"VA Senate is all but in the bag."
11/07 09:29 PM
At least one well-connected Republican — not Obi Wan — seems very confident about Allen finishing on top in Virginia. I see it as very very close.

They don't buy the CNN and ABC call on Cardin. The early numbers have Steele up, and they have a lot of absentees that won't get counted for a while. That's based entirely on exit polls, which are wrong.

Northup looks like a loss, and that might be a sign of a bad night.

I'm told that Michael Barone — the guy who was the first to say the exit polls were bad in 2004 —just said the exit polls gave the Democrats 6 to 8 points this year. Puts a lot of those Senate races into the neck-and-neck category.

The CNN call on Rhode Island is based on exit polls. Ignore the call, watch the actual numbers coming in tonight.

That's not to say Whitehouse won't win; just that it's likely to be close and they ought not rely on exit polls.

UPDATE: Florida 13, Kathrine Harris' old seat, has been called for Buchanan, the Republican, by Fox. That's one I had on my "good chance the GOP loses" pile, so the GOP is breathing a little easier.

There's some worry that Foley/Negron-Mahoney is going to be really, really close, and might end up falling just short.

11 pm Update
11/07 11:09 PM
Ned Lamont conceded. Prepare gloating.

Clay Shaw loses in Florida - a sign of a bad, bad night for the GOP.

Shuler wins in North Carolina, another Dem pickup. If they don't have 15 yet, they must be close. And the Democrats have at least temporarily retaken the lead in those Georgia House race - although it's very, very narrow.

Graf, my Jim-what-are-you-smoking longshot pick in Arizona 8th District, didn't really move the needle - down 56 to 41 with 44 percent in.

In CT, Simmons is hanging in, but the GOP certainly can't count on any lucky breaks tonight. Shays is up, but it's very very early.

Georgia 12 a barnburner - 30 seat margin with Republican Burns ahead, 46,446 to 46,416 over Democrat Barrow, 75 percent of precincts reporting.

UPDATE: Some of these candidates, like Joe Negron, are going to have a decent shot at retaking the seat in 2008 when they're not running in some crazy circumstances. Even with the baggage of "punch Foley for me," he's still within 2,200 votes with 93 percent of the vote in. Some of those exit polls may not have been that far off. With 98 percent of the vote in, Whitehouse is leading Chafee, 53 percent to 47 percent.

Virginia's going to an automatic recount, just like in last year's Attorney General's race. It won't be a Florida. Tennessee isn't called yet?