Thread: What's This About Phoenix, AZ?

A friend of mine from Phoenix wants to know about the following:


http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/citie ... worse.html

end of 3rd paragraph from bottom.

Phoenix will get 19,000 new residents this year? What migration project is this, does anybody know?

Cities Where Things are Getting Worse

By Morgan Brennan, Forbes.com
Jar 29, 2011

It’s no secret the U.S. economy has for the past several years been slogging along at a slovenly pace. Hopeful signs of recovery are peeking through in some areas of the country, but many more continue to struggle under the weight of collapsed housing markets and high unemployment. But even California, home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood and once the darling of the housing industry, is no longer feeling golden.

Six California cities claim spots on our list of Cities Where The Economy May Get Worse. Riverside took the number one spot, thanks to a high unemployment rate (13.9%) coupled with weak job growth, a hefty number of mortgage loans 90 days or more delinquent (8.21% of all loans) and a projected migration pattern that finds 4,000 residents expected to leave the area this year.

In Pictures: 15 Cities Where It's Getting Worse
Other Golden State metros on the list: Stockton at No. 2, Los Angeles at No. 4, Bakersfield at No. 5, San Francisco at No. 6 and Sacramento at No. 7. All of these cities have double-digit unemployment rates and paltry job growth projections. All except LA have housing markets in which prices continue to decline or remain stagnant.

"Struggling housing markets, state government cutbacks, combined with economies that lack industrial diversity and are heavily dependent on low-wage industries, such as agriculture, will hold back job growth." So says Celia Chen, a senior director at Moody's Economy.com, about many smaller California metros.

Behind The Numbers
We started with the 85 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the U.S. government's Office of Management and Budget. These areas include both the cities they are named for and the geographic areas surrounding them, with populations of 500,000 or more. For this list we held up the MSAs to five evenly weighted economic measures.

First we asked Moody's Economy.com to provide 2011 projections for job growth, as well as net in-migration, or the estimated number of people moving into (or out of) each city. Moody's Economy.com uses a combination of data from Moody's Analytics, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau to come up with projections. Of the 15 cities where economies may get worse, only three (Bakersfield, No. 5; Sacramento, No. 7; and Jacksonville, No. 8) are projected to welcome new residents in 2011; the others will lose residents to other metros.

Job growth too was minimal in the cities that made our list, with projections of less than 1% in all but one city. That less-than-1% statistic is relative to the local unemployment rate, which we also factored into our methodology, using the most current unemployment rate available for each MSA, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a city like Stockton, Calif., where unemployment is about 18%, a job growth outlook of 0.54% promises a somewhat dismal future for job opportunities. On the other hand, Poughkeepsie, N.Y. (which ranked No. 15), boasts a 7.6% unemployment rate (well below the 9% national average) and a 0.43% job growth outlook. Employment offers a bit of good news for Poughkeepsie, but the Hudson River hub made our list for other reasons: a substantial population exodus compared with city size, a housing market that has yet to hit bottom and a significant number of mortgage loans delinquent by 90 days or more.

Lastly we used two housing-centric data points in our methodology. Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based real estate research firm, provided us with their 12-month home price outlooks for these metros. LPS Applied Analytics, a Jacksonville, Fla.-based mortgage research company that releases a monthly foreclosure report, supplied the percentage of mortgage loans currently delinquent by 90 days or more. Some of these delinquent loans will be modified or settled in short-sales, but many others will roll over into foreclosures and ultimately become bank-owned properties. It's a process that wrecks homeowners' credit and pushes the prices of local real estate down further. All of the cities on our list claim housing markets with a larger than average number of delinquent home loans on the books. Riverside and Stockton demonstrated some of the highest delinquency rates among the 85 MSAs we assessed.

The good news, at least housing-wise, is that most of the country appears to have hit market bottom, or come close to it. The double-digit plunging home prices and staggering foreclosure rates of the past several years seem to be subsiding--in the case of these cities, at least slowing. Riverside, for example, will see minimal gains in its home prices this year, after a 45% price drop over the past few years from its 2006 peak, according to Local Market Monitor. Even cities like Jacksonville, which ranked high on our list in terms of projected home price declines, will only see a 4% drop over the next 12 months.

It's also worth noting that several of the big foreclosure cities remain absent from this list: namely Phoenix, Las Vegas and all of the Florida metros except Jacksonville, which ranked eighth on our list. Here's why: While Florida home prices continue to decline in most metros, and foreclosure and delinquency rates remain high, job growth shows signs of improving, and people are beginning to move back to the Sunshine State, especially to Miami and Orlando. Indeed Phoenix skirted our list thanks in part to a bullish migration projection as well, with 19,000 additional people expected to call the Southwest metropolis home this year.

"Net migration patterns will improve this year in Phoenix, Orlando, Miami and Las Vegas due to the low cost of housing and slight gains in job growth," explains Chen. "Job growth is expected to turn positive this year in all of these areas, for the first time since 2007."

Las Vegas remains the top city for delinquent loans (and Nevada the top state for foreclosures) but it skirted a spot on this list, thanks to a strong migration projection as well (13,000 people are expected to move to Sin City this year). That said, Local Market Monitor expects home prices to drop another 4% over the next 12 months, and unemployment vs. job growth leaves much to be desired. Although it didn't make our list, Vegas merits watching as a city where the economy could get worse.

Here's the Top 5 Cities Where Things are Getting Worse:

5. Bakersfield, Ca.
MSA: Bakersfield-Delano, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 16.2%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 6.85% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 3% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 311 residents incoming
2011 Job growth projection: 0.21% increase

4. Los Angeles, Ca.
MSA: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 11.7%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.53% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% increase
2011 net migration projection: 7,880 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.88% increase

3. Detroit, Mich.
MSA: Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Mich.
Unemployment rate: 13.3%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 5.42% of loans
12 month home price forecast: 2% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 1,340 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.53% increase

2. Stockton, Ca.
MSA: Stockton, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 18%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 7.78% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% decrease
2011 net migration projection: 620 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.54% increase

1. Riverside-San Bernardino, Ca.
Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA): Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
Unemployment rate: 13.9%
Mortgages 90-plus days delinquent: 8.21% of loans
12-month home price forecast: 1% increase
2011 net migration projection: 4,110 residents leaving
2011 Job growth projection: 0.69% increase

http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/citie ... worse.html

im guessing that means immigration, both legal and illegal ?

Arizona's accelerated growth rate slowed with the mid-decade housing crisis, but the state still grew faster than any other except Nevada.

Census: Ariz.'s Hispanic population up 46 percent
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-231020.html

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

Arizona's accelerated growth rate slowed with the mid-decade housing crisis, but the state still grew faster than any other except Nevada.

Census: Ariz.'s Hispanic population up 46 percent
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-231020.html

I thought the pro-illegal blather was that Hispanics were leaving Arizona in droves because of sb1070 and considered to be "unfriendly" towards them.

Originally Posted by Oldglory

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

Arizona's accelerated growth rate slowed with the mid-decade housing crisis, but the state still grew faster than any other except Nevada.

Census: Ariz.'s Hispanic population up 46 percent
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-231020.html

I thought the pro-illegal blather was that Hispanics were leaving Arizona in droves because of sb1070 and considered to be "unfriendly" towards them.

I think illegal alien Hispanics are leaving AZ.
But, not all Hispanics are illegal aliens.

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

Originally Posted by Oldglory

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

Arizona's accelerated growth rate slowed with the mid-decade housing crisis, but the state still grew faster than any other except Nevada.

Census: Ariz.'s Hispanic population up 46 percent
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-231020.html

I thought the pro-illegal blather was that Hispanics were leaving Arizona in droves because of sb1070 and considered to be "unfriendly" towards them.

I think illegal alien Hispanics are leaving AZ.
But, not all Hispanics are illegal aliens.

True but the scuttlebutt is that legal and citizen Hispanics are leaving AZ because they are afraid of racial profiling. What are they afraid of? They have documents that prove they are here legally. I think it is more of a protest intended to hurt AZ for implementing laws that will catch their illegal brethern here. It is a tribal mentality.

Yup, you read right Sacred. People just keep pouring in here for some odd reason, both Mexicans and out-of-staters but mostly Mexicans.

I left Michigan a year and a half ago because I graduated from Medical Assistant school and was having trouble finding work. I applied to hundreds of Medical Assistant jobs in the Detroit Metro area and recieved only two interviews which I thought was pretty bad. I ended up being talked into moving here to Mesa, AZ by my mother who told me there were more jobs here than in Michigan. Turns out that what she told me couldn't be any further from the truth, but of course I should have known being that my mother lives in la-la land with rose colored glasses most of the time.

When I got to the Phoenix area I applied to twice as many jobs for twice as long as I did in Michigan. However, I never even got so much as a phone call in response to my resumes here which I found to be strange.

Coincidently in EVERY single doctor's office I walk into out here, EVERY single employee in the office will speak both Spanish and English. The employees are mostly anchors and bi-lingual Mexicans, but you will also see the occasional American who caved in and learned Spanish.

As a result I went back to school to get my bachelors degree in Clinical Laboratory Science and I have been accepted into a university back home. We are moving back in May and I am counting every day that goes by. This place is like the twilight zone to me and I can't understand why the citizens of AZ have continued to cater to the very same people who are demolishing their home. The citizens of AZ have let this crap go on way too long and now it is so far gone that thay will probably never get their state back.

That is the problem, the Arizonians let this go on for many years until it lead up to this point. The problem of IAs taking over AZ and taking all the jobs didn't just start happening after the recession out here in AZ. No, I remember when I was an 18 year old kid and I came out here for a while back in 1995 when the economy was supposed to be good. I applied to all the fast food joints around here like most 18 year old kids would. At that time if I applied to a McDonalds in the Metro Detroit area I would be hired by the next day. You know what happened here? In every fast food joint I would walk into, my application would be accepted by a Mexican manager and every single employee in there would be Mexican. And did I ever hear from them? Heck no I didn't! I ended up having to move back home and get my old job back!

Originally Posted by Oldglory

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

Arizona's accelerated growth rate slowed with the mid-decade housing crisis, but the state still grew faster than any other except Nevada.

Census: Ariz.'s Hispanic population up 46 percent
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-231020.html

I thought the pro-illegal blather was that Hispanics were leaving Arizona in droves because of sb1070 and considered to be "unfriendly" towards them.

Well I'm here in person and I can tell you that I have yet to see that because everywhere I go they are still babbling in Spanish.

Originally Posted by thedramaofmylife

Originally Posted by Oldglory

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

Arizona's accelerated growth rate slowed with the mid-decade housing crisis, but the state still grew faster than any other except Nevada.

Census: Ariz.'s Hispanic population up 46 percent
http://www.alipac.us/ftopict-231020.html

I thought the pro-illegal blather was that Hispanics were leaving Arizona in droves because of sb1070 and considered to be "unfriendly" towards them.

Well I'm here in person and I can tell you that I have yet to see that because everywhere I go they are still babbling in Spanish.

It may have just been scare tactics on their part. Remember the boycotts? "If I don't get my way I wiil hurt the economy of AZ by leaving and/or boycotting it". They screamed and threatened to high heavens over sb1070 and yet as you said they are still there and babbling all over the place in Spanish.