Thread: WORLD BRACES FOR WAR: Canada send Jetfighters to Poland to Bolster NATO Forces

Putin Pulls A Fast One: NATO Says No Russian Troop Withdrawal


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2014 10:58 -0400

• Ukraine
  

Earlier today, before the high-beta, higher-trash selloff resumed, the main catalyst that pushed the market higher was the following headline:

• PUTIN: RUSSIA PULLED BACK TROOPS FROM UKRAINIAN BORDER

Turns out all Putin was doing was merely trying to give his buddies yet another higher price level from which to sell. To wit:

• NATO HAS NO INDICATION OF WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN MILITARY FORCES FROM UKRAINE BORDER-NATO MILITARY OFFICIAL
• UKRAINE SAYS RUSSIAN MILITARY DRILLS CONTINUING ON BORDER
• UKRAINE BORDER SVC CAN'T SAY WHETHER RUSSIA ARMY IS WITHDRAWING

It is almost as if Putin was merely pulling the electronic legs of the high freaks with premeditated intent...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...oop-withdrawal

The Next Big Catalyst: East Ukraine May Be Officially Indepedent In Seven Days

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2014 09:13 -0400

• Ukraine

Update: moments after we posted this, Putin did his best to bring attention to just this matter:

• PUTIN CALLS TO POSTPONE MAY 11 REFERENDUM TO EASE UKRAINE TALKS

And naturally, since there will be no delay as Kiev does not even bother to discuss the referendum while Donetsk will push on but certainly aware of Putin's distance-providing "reservation", Putin will "sadly" have to accept the referendum results.
* * *
The Geneva de-escalation lasted one day. The latest "Putin de-escalates the OSCE" gambit which served its purpose to send spoos higher by 6 points, lasted minutes. To wit:

• PASHYNSKYI SAYS UKRAINE'S ANTI-TERRORIST OP WILL CONTINUE
• PASHYNSKYI SAYS FOREIGN EXPERTS INVITED TO ODESSA TO PROBE FIRE

And the most "de-escalatory" statement of all:

• PASHYNSKYI: ALL SLOVYANSK MILITANTS WILL BE KILLED OR DETAINED

So much for that particular distraction.
However, focusing on what is actually important and market-moving (or will be with a 4-6 week delay in this rigged, non-discounting, broken market) and what most are ignoring for now, is that as previously reported on several occasions, East Ukraine is about to become the next Crimea, following an indepedence referendum that is set to take place in the self-proclaimed Donetsk people's republic on Sunday May 11.

And as Itar-Tass reported moments ago, the results will be in as soon as aweek from today or May 14 which means Russian troops will be officially in what will then be former east Ukraine by the end of next week.

Most polling stations in east Ukraine’s Donetsk Region are already fully equipped for a local referendum that is expected to determine the regional status on May 11, co-chairman of the government of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin told TAR-TASS on Wednesday.

“Ballot papers are being delivered to polling stations, most of which are already equipped properly,” he said, noting that referendum results are planned to be made public within three days.

Pushilin noted that a sociological survey conducted earlier indicated that a referendum turnout may reach no less than 60%, but it will most likely be higher due to latest tragic events in the country.

“Many calls are coming even from Kiev and western Ukraine,” he said. “Now even those who did not believe that we are right begin to understand all the depth of a catastrophe in Ukraine and begin to realize where this may lead to,” Pushilin added.

Pushilin also did not rule out that provocations were possible in the region on the referendum day on May 11. “All can be expected from the Kiev junta,” he added.

What happens then?
Look no further than the Crimea case study:

1. Donetsk declares independence
2. Kiev, the west and NATO condemn the results, sternly refuse to accept the outcome, and issue more sanctions against Russian politicians and oligarchs
3. Newly "independent" Donetsk requests military support from friendly Russia to defend its population, and the Russian tanks roll across the border

And as other regions in east and south Ukraine follow in the Donetsk' footsteps, assuring Russia a land connection to Crimea and cutting off Kiev from the Donbas industrial zones and the Slavyansk shale gas, Putin wins again.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ent-seven-days

Chinese Vessel Rams Vietnamese Ships Under Air Support; Water Cannon Used

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2014 08:58 -0400

• China
• Reuters
• Saudi Arabia
• Ukraine

With all eyes firmly focused on WWIII in Ukraine (oh, and don't forget Al Qaeda's pivot to attacking Saudi Arabia), China - as we noted here - decided now was the appropriate time to send an oil rig into Vietnamese (admittedly uncertain) territorial waters. The Vietnamese are not happy and is blasting China this morning after a Chinese vessel intentionally rammed two of its ships. As Reuters reports, the foreign ministry in Hanoi said the collisions took place on Sunday and caused considerable damage to the Vietnamese ships with six people sustaining minor injuries. Vietnam's foreign minister noted, "Chinese ships, with air support, sought to intimidate Vietnamese vessels. Water cannon was used," adding that "Vietnam won't fire unless China fires first." China has not yet responded to the Vietnamese allegations of ramming, but did have this to say, "The United States has no right to complain about China's activities within the scope of its own sovereignty."

As we noted here, China sent an oil rig into disputed Vietnamese waters...

An oil industry official in China said the deployment of the rig owned by China's CNOOC oil company to waters near Vietnam appeared to be a political decision rather than a commercial one.

"This reflected the will of the central government and is also related to the U.S. strategy on Asia," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

"It is not commercially driven. It is also not like CNOOC has set a big exploration blueprint for the region."

But as Reuters reports, tensions are rising...

Vietnam said on Wednesday a Chinese vessel intentionally rammed two of its ships in a part of the disputed South China Sea where Beijing has deployed a giant oil rig, sending tensions spiraling in the region.
...

"On May 4, Chinese ships intentionally rammed two Vietnamese Sea Guard vessels," said Tran Duy Hai, a foreign ministry official and deputy head of Vietnam's national border committee.

"Chinese ships, with air support, sought to intimidate Vietnamese vessels. Water cannon was used," he told a news conference in Hanoi. Six other ships were also hit, other officials said, but not as badly.

Dozens of navy and coastguard vessels from both countries are in the area where China has deployed the giant rig, Vietnamese officials have said.

"No shots have been fired yet," said a Vietnamese navy official, who could not be identified because he was not authorized to speak to media. "Vietnam won't fire unless China fires first."

The US will have to decide if this is a red line being crossed after Obama's recent visit... but China is already putting him straight...

China has not yet responded to the Vietnamese allegations of ramming, but Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said earlier on Wednesday that the deployment of the rig had nothing to do with the United States, or Vietnam.

"The United States has no right to complain about China's activities within the scope of its own sovereignty," she said.

Vietnam concludes for now... we assume knowing the US has its back?

"We are a peace-loving nation that has experienced many wars," he said. "If this situation goes too far, we will use all measures in line with international law to protect our territory. We have limitations, but we will stand up to any Chinese aggression."

So Russia vs US in Ukraine, check! Al Qaeda vs Saudi Arabia, check! China vs Vietnam, check! Must be time for all time highs in stocks!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...er-cannon-used

Britain Deploys Destroyer To "Shadow" Russian Aircraft Carrier


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014

In case US destroyers operating in the Black Sea was not sufficiently clear of the western approach to containing Russia, the latest naval news will hardly boost the de-escalation theme. Reuters reports that earlier today Britain had deployed a destroyer to track a Russian aircraft carrier sailing close to its coastal waters, "the latest in a series of such incidents and a reminder of underlying tensions between London and Moscow."

The reason the Russian navy is suddenly a concern to Britain is because the Admiral Kuznetsov, which is capable of carrying up to 26 fixed-wing fighters and 24 helicopters, had completed a deployment as part of Moscow's naval force in the Mediterranean "and was on its way back to its base of Severomorsk in north-west Russia." As part of this return, the carrier is to pass in proximity to the British isles, so just in case it gets any ideas, the UK is preparing a welcome party.

A spokesman from Britain's Ministry of Defense said HMS Dragon had been "activated" on Wednesday in response to the approach of a Russian task force including the Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only aircraft carrier.

"It was activated yesterday to meet the Admiral Kuznetsov task force," the spokesman told Reuters.

This is not the first time Britain has deployed warships to keep Russia at bad:

HMS Dragon, a modern air-Defense destroyer, was deployed in similar circumstances just last month to shadow another Russian warship, the Vice-Admiral Kulakov, as it sailed past Britain.



Britain last month also scrambled Typhoon fighter jets to see off Russian military planes flying close to its airspace off the coast of Scotland.

And in other news, the VIX is sliding on the prospect that central planning is once again firmly in control, which alongside the now traditional post-open USDJPY ramp, has sent the S&P500 well on its way to new all time highs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...rcraft-carrier

Stunning Clip Of How Russia Is "Not" Preparing For Nuclear War

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014 14:35 -0400



Despite all the words - and equity market rallies (confirming that it must be true) - it would appear Mr. Putin and his men have been quietly "not" preparing for all-out war (which makes us wonder, aside from the ICBMs, just what it would look like if they were actually preparing for war). Below is a clip of today's "simulated massive nuclear attack" drills conducted in Russia. It is in short, stunning.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...-preparing-war

Guest Post: The IMF Goes To War In Ukraine

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014 17:29 -0400

Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at OpEd News,

The IMF has approved a $17 billion loan to Ukraine. The first $3.2 billion tranche has arrived on Wednesday.
It's essential to identify the conditions attached to this Mafia-style "loan." Nothing remotely similar to reviving the Ukrainian economy is in play. The scheme is inextricably linked to the IMF's notorious, one-size-fits-all "structural adjustment" policy, known to hundreds of millions from Latin America and Southeast Asia to Southern Europe.
The regime changers in Kiev have duly complied, launching the inevitable austerity package -- from tax hikes and frozen pensions to a stiff, over 50 percent rise on the price of natural gas heating Ukrainian homes. The "Ukrainian people" won't be able to pay their utility bills this coming winter.
Predictably, the massive loan is not for the benefit of "the Ukrainian people." Kiev is essentially bankrupt. Creditors range from Western banks to Gazprom -- which is owed no less than $2.7 billion. The "loan" will pay back these creditors; not to mention that $5 billion of the total is earmarked for payments of -- what else -- previous IMF loans. It goes without saying that a lot of the funds will be duly pocketed -- Afghanistan-style -- by the current bunch of oligarchs aligned with the "Yats" government in Kiev.
The IMF has already warned that Ukraine is in recession and may need an extension of the $17 billion loan. IMF newspeak qualifies it as "a significant recalibration of the program." This will happen, according to the IMF, if Kiev loses control of Eastern and Southern Ukraine -- something already in progress.
Eastern Ukraine is the country's industrial heartland -- with the highest GDP per capita and home of key factories and mines, mostly in the Donetsk region, which happens to be largely mobilized against the neo-fascist/neo-nazi-aligned regime changers in Kiev. If the current conflagration persists, this means both industrial exports and tax revenues will go down.
So here's the IMF prescription for the oligarch bunch -- some of them actively financing Right Sector militias: As long as you're facing a popular rebellion in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, relax; you will get additional IMF cash further on down the road. Talk about a crash course in disaster capitalism.
We want you to invade Meanwhile, the Obama administration's juvenile delinquent school of diplomacy remains on track: the plan is to entice Moscow to "invade." Benefits would be immense. Washington would destroy once and for all the emerging strategic partnership between the EU, especially Germany, and Russia, part of a more organic interaction between Europe and Asia; keep Europe perennially under America's thumb; and boost Robocop NATO after its Afghan humiliation.

Well, they are not juvenile delinquents for nothing. Yet this brilliant plan forgets a key component: enough competent troops willing to apply Kiev's designs. The regime changers dissolved the Berkut federal riot police. Big mistake -- because they are pros; they are unemployed; and now, holding a monster grudge, amply supporting Ukrainians in favor of federalization.
What the Ministry of Truth script imposed on all Western corporate media insists on labeling "pro-Russian separatists" are in fact Ukrainian federalists. They don't want to split. They don't want to join the Russian Federation. What they want is a federalized Ukraine with strong, autonomous provinces.
Meanwhile, in Pipelineistan...
Washington is actively praying that the confrontation between the EU and Russia on the gas front spirals out of control. Natural gas will amount to 25 percent of the EU's needs up to 2050. Since 2011 Russia is the number one supplier, ahead of Norway and Algeria.
The bureaucrat-infested European Commission (EC) is now concentrating its attacks on Gazprom on the South Stream pipeline -- whose construction starts in June. The EC insists that the agreements already struck between Russia and seven EU countries infringe the laws of the EU (how come they didn't find that out earlier?). The EC would like South Stream to become a "European," not a Gazprom project.
Well, that depends on a lot of serious diplomacy and the internal politics of various EU member states. For instance, Estonia and Lithuania depend 100 percent on Gazprom. Some countries, such as Italy, import over 80 percent of their energy; others, such as the UK, only 40 percent.
It's like the EC suddenly woke up from its usual torpor and decided that South Stream is a political football. Günther Oettinger, the EU's energy commissioner, has been blaring the horn of EU competition laws called "the third energy package" -- which would essentially require Gazprom to open South Stream to other suppliers. Moscow filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Rigorous application of recently unearthed EU law is one thing. Facts on the ground are another. South Stream may cost up to 16 billion euros -- but it will be built, even if financed by Russia's state budget.
Moreover Gazprom, in 2014 alone, has already signed extra deals with German, Italian, Austrian and Swiss partners. Italy's ENI and France's EDF are partners from the start. Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria are deeply involved in South Stream. No wonder none of them are in favor of more sanctions on Russia.
As for any substantial move by the EU to find new supply sources, that's a process that should take years -- and should involve the best possible alternative source, Iran, assuming a nuclear deal with the P5+1 is struck this year. Another possible source, Kazakhstan, exports less than it could, and that will remain the case because of infrastructure problems.
So we're back to the Ukrainian tragedy. Moscow won't "invade." What for? The IMF's structural adjustment will devastate Ukraine more than a war; most Ukrainians may even end up begging Russia for help. Berlin won't antagonize Moscow. So Washington's rhetoric of "isolating" Russia is just revealed for what it is: juvenile delinquency.
What's left for the Empire of Chaos is to pray for chaos to keep spreading across Ukraine, thus sapping Moscow's energy. And all this because the Washington establishment is absolutely terrified of an emerging power in Eurasia. Not one, but two -- Russia and China. Worse: strategically aligned. Worse still: bent on integrating Asia and Europe. So feel free to picture a bunch of Washington angry old men hissing like juvenile delinquents: "I don't like you. I don't want to talk to you. I want you to die."


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...es-war-ukraine

"New Russia" - Is This What East Ukraine Will Soon Look Like?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014 13:44 -0400

As "The Russian Spring" spreads across various sub-regions of current non-Russian sovereign nations, Russian historian Sergey Lebedev warns that Transdniestria is “the first liberated part of Novorossiya,” Putin’s term for what he sees as a new state spreading across Ukraine into Moldova and perhaps beyond... here is what that region will look like... welcome to Novorossiya, or as one would translate it... New Russia.



As InterpreterMag believes,

Lebedev’s article highlights two directions of Putin’s policies, both of which should be of concern not only in the region but in Europe and the West more generally.

On the one hand, to the extent that Transdniestria is a model for some putative Novorossiya, it presents a very ugly picture.

Transdniestria under its breakaway government has been one of the most repressive places in the former Soviet space and has a thoroughly criminalized government that has been prepared to sell off the enormous arms cache there left over from USSR times to all and sundry, including terrorist groups.

And on the other, it underscores that Putin’s plans are far broader than Ukraine and involve a thrust into the Balkans. Were Transdniestria to be taken from Moldova and annexed to Russia, that would almost certainly lead to the collapse of the Moldovan state, the unification of part of it with Romania, the federalization of that country, and the extension of a Moscow-sponsored arc of instability into the Balkans.

...

Sanctions are not enough to “change Putin’s calculus,” as even American officials are beginning to acknowledge. And given the dangers that allowing him to move even further west into Moldova and beyond would inevitably entail, the time to contain and then reverse what he is doing is now.

Meanwhile Victoria Nuland, giving testimony in the house... was not backing down...

• NULAND CITES UKRAINE'S `PERNICIOUS CANCER OF CORRUPTION'
• NULAND SAYS NATO `DOUBLING DOWN' ON LAND, SEA, AIR PRESENCE
• NULAND SAYS RUSSIA SANCTIONS SHOULD AIM AT `FORWARD' INVESTMENT
• NULAND SAYS PUTIN WILL SEE SECTORAL SANCTIONS AS DETERRENT
• NULAND SAYS RUSSIANS BUYING FEWER LUXURY GOODS IN EU

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...will-soon-look

Russia Launches Two ICBMs, Rebuffs "Simulated Massive Nuclear Strike" As Part Of Military Drill

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014 12:33 -0400

Remember when Putin "de-escalated" and promised the Russian forces were being pulled back from the Ukraine border? That didn't last long. Fast forward 24 hours, when we learn that the very same Putin oversaw a military exercise involving Russia's nuclear forces.

• AEROSPACE DEFENSE FORCES SUCCESSFULLY REBUFFED SIMULATED MASSIVE NUCLEAR MISSILE STRIKE DURING DRILLS - RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY
• NORTHERN, PACIFIC OCEAN FLEET'S STRATEGIC SUBMARINES LAUNCH TWO BALLISTIC MISSILES AS PART OF ROUTINE TRAINING - DEFENSE MINISTRY
• RUSSIA LAUNCHES TOPOL ICBM, HITS KAMCHATKA TARGET
• RUSSIAN STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE, DEFENSIVE FORCES IN HIGH READINESS - PUTIN
• RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTER STATES PERMANENT READINESS OF NUCLEAR TRIAD - IFX
• RUSSIAN FORCES PRACTICE ROCKET FIRE - IFX
• TU-95MS BOMBER HITS GROUND TARGETS DURING EXERCISE IN WMD - IFX

And from AP:

While Putin said the exercise had been planned back in November, it comes as relations between Russia and the West have plunged to their lowest point since the Cold War over Ukraine.

Putin, speaking from the Defense Ministry's headquarters where he oversaw the exercise along with leaders of several ex-Soviet nations which are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, said that the maneuvers involved the military across the entire Russian territory, including the nation's nuclear forces.

Russian news wires said that the exercises simulated dealing a massive retaliatory nuclear strike in response to an enemy attack. The description of the exercise is unusually blunt, reflecting tensions with the West running high over Ukraine.

As part of the maneuvers, a Topol intercontinental ballistic missile launched from the Plesetsk launch pad in northwestern Russia successfully hit a designated target on the Kura testing range on the far eastern Kamchatka peninsula, the military said.

Two nuclear submarines of the Northern and Pacific Fleets, the Tula and the Podolsk, also fired intercontinental ballistic missiles.

So, what distraction will those who are selling into idiot hands to push stocks higher use today?


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...t-military-dri

Russia Says "Forced To Respond" But Warns Sanctions "Not Our Method"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014 10:54 -0400

Despite JPY and bonds not playing along, US equities (courtesy of the squeeze of the "most shorted") had rallied mightily this morning. Then, all of a sudden - reality hit with some rather ominous-sounding threats from Russia:

• *RUSSIA SAYS WILL RESPOND TO BROADER U.S., CANADA SANCTIONS
• *RUSSIA SAYS FORCED TO RESPOND TO 'UNFRIENDLY ACTIONS'
• *RUSSIA SAYS SANCTIONS 'NOT OUR METHOD'

So if 'sanctions' are not their method? Then what is? It seems that uncertainty was enough to spook bonds (yields plunged) and JPY (strength) and take the shine modestly off of VIX/Stocks.





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...not-our-method

Here Comes Crimea 2.0: Following Referendum, East Ukraine Votes To Become Part Of Russia

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2014 09:04 -0400

Yesterday we correctly predicted that while the world is distracted by this and that, the next real short-term catalyst is the east Ukraine referendum vote on Sunday, whose results would be available as soon as May 11, indicating that, almost with 100% certainty, the Ukraine region would vote to become independent.



This was promptly followed by a skillful diplomatic gambit by Putin who, knowing full well Donetsk would just say no, suggested the referendum be postponed thus giving himself cover when the western press attacked him for using Crimean tactics for the second time in two months. This was confirmed this morning when the Donetsk "separatists" indeed politely thanked Putin for his concern, but decided to proceed with this weekend's referendum anyway.
The irony is that as we also explained yesterday, the Crimea scenario is fully in play once more. Confirming precisely that was news from News of Donbass which reported moments ago that in the aftermath of the new certain May 11 referendum, a week later east Ukraine will formalize the Russia annexation process and on May 18 there will be a "second round of the referendum where you will be asked to support accession to the Donestk region of Russia."
From News of Donbas:

Gathered on the square of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, administration representatives announced a "referendum" in two rounds. As the correspondent of URA-Inform.Donbass, the first round of the referendum will be held on May 11.

In the first round resident of Donetsk will be offered to vote for recognition of the Donetsk republic and then on May 18 will be held the second round of the referendum ", where you will be asked to support accession to the Donetsk region of Russia.

The decision on such a scheme of "referendum" was made today at a meeting of deputies DNR today in Donetsk.

We note that the pro-Russian activists gathered in the square outside the administrative building reactied negatively to the assessment statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to delay the "referendum".

In summary: in one master stroke, Putin "distanced" himself from the Donetsk administration so he is not seen as pulling their strings, and more importantly, in 10 days, said Donetsk republic will formally join Russia.
And that is how you successfully conduct foreign policy. There is a second way: using hash tags.




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...me-part-russia