Thread: After Crackdown, Number of Illegal Immigrants Declines

After Crackdown, Number of Illegal Immigrants Declines

By N.C. Aizenman
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 30, 2008; 2:30 PM

The flow of illegal immigrants into the country appears to have declined over the last year, at least partly due to the chilling effect of stepped-up enforcement, according to a report released today by a Washington think tank that advocates stricter limits on immigration.

The study by the Center for Immigration Studies based its findings on Census data indicating that the number of less-educated, working-aged Hispanic immigrants--defined as 18- to 40-year-olds with a high school diploma or less--has dropped by more than 10 percent, or about 830,000 people since last August.

Previous research suggests that a large share of less-educated foreigners are in the country illegally, and that they make up the bulk of the illegal immigrant population. Furthermore, while earlier declines in the number of these Hispanic immigrants have been linked to a rise in their unemployment rate, the current drop-off began last year almost immediately after the Congress abandoned legislation to legalize undocumented immigrants and six months before there was any significant rise in their unemployment rate.

During the same period, the number of foreigners who were more educated or non-Hispanic--and therefore far less likely to be illegal immigrants--continued to rise or hold steady.

"The evidence is consistent with the idea that at least initially more robust enforcement caused the number of illegal immigrants to decline significantly," said Steven A. Camarota, one of the study's authors. "Some people seem to think illegals are so permanently anchored in the United States that there is no possibility of them leaving. . . . This suggests they're not correct. Some significant share might respond to changing incentives and leave."

Several demographers who specialize in estimating the illegal immigrant population expressed concern about the limits of the study's methodology, but said they found the possibility that the illegal immigrant population is decreasing plausible .

Determining the actual amount of that decline, however, is a far more controversial matter.

The Census does not ask foreigners their immigration status. Instead, both government and independent researchers use a variety of techniques to estimate the number of immigrants in the country illegally-- for instance subtracting the number of visas, permanent residency permits and naturalizations granted each year from the total number of foreigners counted by the Census. The difference between the number of foreigners that can be accounted for through such records and the total number tallied by the Census is considered to be the size of the illegal immigrant population.

Camarota and co-author Karen Jensenius took a different approach: first calculating the previous ratio between the number of less-educated Hispanic immigrants counted by the Census and the total illegal immigrant population estimated by government researchers, then applying that ratio to the new, lower number of less-educated, working-aged Hispanic immigrants in order to come up with a new estimate for the total illegal immigrant population. According to their calculations, from August 2007 to May of this year, the illegal immigrant population declined by about 11 percent, from a high of 12.49 million to about 11.17 million.

One drawback of Camarota's and Jensenius's method, said Jeffery S. Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center, a widely regarded expert on estimating the illegal immigrant population, is that "it tracks something that correlates with the number of illegal immigrants rather than the actual number of illegal immigrants, and it assumes the correlation remains the same."

"If the ratio [between the number of less-educated Hispanic adults and the total number of illegal immigrants] has changed, then the trend could be very different," Passel said.

Even more contentious is the question of what, if anything, the study's findings indicate about the impact that recent national and local immigration policies may have had on the size of the illegal immigrant population. Since December, the unemployment rate of less-educated working-age Hispanics has risen from 4.93 percent to 7.06 percent, making it that much more difficult to determine whether the continued decline in their population during this period was the result of anything beyond basic economics.

But Camarota and Jensenius suggest that the six-month decline that occurred after the failure of the legalization legislation and before the rise of these workers' unemployment rate is one of several examples of a link between immigration policy and immigrant choices. They note, for instance, that starting in May 2007, when Congress's consideration of the legalization plan began receiving widespread media attention, the number of less-educated, working-aged Hispanics began to rise.

"I call it the amnesty hump," said Camarota. Though he noted that the population increase during this period may not have been statistically significant, "it seems that what was happening was that fewer illegal immigrants left than might otherwise have done so because they were hoping to qualify for legalization."

Also up for interpretation is the degree to which the drop in the number of less-educated Hispanic adults (and, by inference, illegal immigrants) was the result of fewer foreigners entering the country or more of them leaving. The U.S. Border Patrol, for example, has reported a 20 percent decline in apprehensions along the southern border over the 2007 fiscal year--a possible indication that fewer illegal immigrants are attempting to enter. Camarota and Jensenius note that Census data does not answer the question. But they suggest that if less-educated Hispanic adults were not leaving in greater numbers than before, their total population would merely grow more slowly, not decline steeply.

Among those who are leaving, the vast majority are likely doing so on their own power. Despite a surge in worksite raids and other enforcement measures, as well as decisions by various states and local governments to train their police to identify illegal immigrants, only 285,000 immigrants were removed from within the United States in 2007--and many of those were formerly legal immigrants who lost their status after committing a crime.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... id=topnews

Illegal Immigrant Population Dropping

Last update: 2:30 p.m. EDT July 30, 2008
WASHINGTON, July 30, 2008 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ --

New Report Estimates 1.3 Million Decline Since Last Summer

A new analysis of monthly Census Bureau data shows a significant decline in the number of less-educated Hispanic immigrants. The report is the first to show systematic evidence that the illegal population is decreasing. There is good evidence that recent immigration enforcement efforts are a key factor causing the decline.

The report, entitled "Homeward Bound: Recent Immigration Enforcement and the Decline in the Illegal Alien Population," is available at the Center for Immigration Studies web site http://www.cis.org/trends_and_enforcement.

Among the findings:

-- Our best estimate is that the illegal immigrant population has declined by 11 percent through May of this year after hitting a peak in August 2007.
-- The implied decline in the illegal population is 1.3 million since last summer, from 12.5 in August 2007 to 11.2 million in May 2008.
-- The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least 7 times larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving the country on their own.
-- One indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for the decline is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be effected; the legal immigrant population continues to grow.
-- Another indication enforcement is causing the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in their unemployment rate.
-- The importance of enforcement is also suggested by the fact that the current decline is already significantly larger than the decline during the last recession.
-- While the decline began before unemployment rose, the evidence indicates that unemployment has increased among illegal immigrants, so the economic slowdown is likely to be at least partly responsible for the decline in the number of illegal immigrants.
-- There is good evidence that the illegal population rose last summer while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost immediately.

Discussion: These findings are consistent with anecdotal evidence. They are also consistent with data showing a fall off in remittances sent home by immigrants. And they are in line with a drop in border apprehensions. While the evidence indicates that stepped-up immigration enforcement has played an important role in causing the decline, the economic downturn is also likely to be encouraging illegal immigrants to return home. The decline in the illegal population, whatever the cause, seems to directly challenge the argument that illegal aliens are so firmly attached to their lives in this country that it is not possible to induce many of them to return home. If the current trend were sustained, it could cut the illegal population in half within five years.

There is no way to know whether the current trend will continue. Future enforcement efforts as well as the state of the economy will likely determine if the number of illegal immigrants continues to drop. Both presidential candidates have recently stated their strong commitment to legalizing those in the country illegally. Pronouncements of this kind may have consequences. When Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants last summer, there is evidence that the illegal population grew. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to decline rapidly. It may be that the repeated promises of legalization by both candidates in recent weeks will encourage more illegal immigrants to enter the country or encourage those already in the country, who might otherwise leave, to stay in the hopes of being awarded legal status.
Methodology: This study uses monthly data from the Current Population Survey collected by the Census Bureau. The Department of Homeland Security, the former INS and other outside research organizations have used Census Bureau data to estimate the illegal immigrant population. We examine trends in the number of foreign-born less-educated young Hispanics. Prior research indicates that 80 percent of these individuals are in the country illegally. We estimate the range for the decline in the illegal immigrant population is 9 to 14 percent, with 11 percent as the most likely value.

Contact: Steven Camarota
(202) 466-8185 aEURc sac@cis.org
The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institute which examines the impact of immigration on the United States.
SOURCE Center for Immigration Studies
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/i ... &dist=hppr

Study: Number of illegal immigrants in U.S., California likely fell sharply
By Mike Swift
Mercury News
Article Launched: 07/30/2008 11:41:51 AM PDT

The number of illegal immigrants in the United States and California has stopped growing and probably dropped substantially in the past year, according to estimates released today by a Washington, D.C. think-tank that favors tighter curbs on immigration.

South Bay immigrant groups said, however, that while they can't discount the national report, they don't see any local evidence of an exodus of illegal immigrants from the Bay Area.

In a study released in Washington with several members of Congress, the Center for Immigration Studies said today that a weaker economy, coupled with tighter immigration enforcement and the failure of immigration reforms in Congress last summer, has prompted many immigrants to return home to Mexico and other countries.

"Illegals are responding to changing conditions in the United States and are going home in significant numbers," said Steven A. Camarota, director of research for the Center and co-author of the report, which was based on U.S. Census Bureau data.

Camarota estimated that the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. - and in California - has dropped by about 11 percent since the summer of 2007. He said he has no idea whether those trends will continue.

Local immigrant services groups say what may actually be happening is that more people are going underground, failing to answer government surveys from the Censusu Bureau to avoid tighter immigration sweeps.

"It doesn't ring true to me," said Olivia Soza-Mendiola, chief executive officer of the Mexican American Community Services Agency, Inc. in San Jose.

"When you look at what's going on with immigration and the war against the undocumented, I think what we're finding is there are more people that are more obscure. They are starting to hide again like they did in the past, and they going to be harder to account for."
http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_10044691

[quote]
One drawback of Camarota's and Jensenius's method, said Jeffery S. Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center, a widely regarded expert on estimating the illegal immigrant population, is that "it tracks something that correlates with the number of illegal immigrants rather than the actual number of illegal immigrants, and it assumes the correlation remains the same."

What?!!!

Originally Posted by vortex

One drawback of Camarota's and Jensenius's method, said Jeffery S. Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center, a widely regarded expert on estimating the illegal immigrant population, is that "it tracks something that correlates with the number of illegal immigrants rather than the actual number of illegal immigrants, and it assumes the correlation remains the same."

What?!!!

Yeah...WHHHHHHAAAAAAAT???

Thanks Zeezil. Still am a newbie to this site, but how the pudding does this "expert" at the Pew Hispanic Center know the "actual" number of illegals? Even the feds, sworn to protect our borders, uphold our laws and local governments redistricting due to population growth or loss don't have a clue.

I don't believe it for a minute; the illegal immigration population may have declined in a few areas, but most are just relocating to other areas. Overall, there are still far more illegals coming into our country than are being deported by I.C.E. A high percentage of illegals are still able to cross the border into our country without getting caught.

----------------------------I.C.E. DEPORTATIONS-----------------------
---2002-----2003------2004------2005-------2006------2007------2008(ends 9/30)
116,154--145,935--162,014--151,579--185,431--276,912-- 235,751


-------------SOUTHWEST BORDER PATROL APPREHENSIONS----------
----2003--------2004---------2005--------2006-------2007------2008
--905,065--1,139,282--1,189,108--1,071,972--858,638--578,774 (as of 07/07)

Originally Posted by zeezil

Study: Number of illegal immigrants in U.S., California likely fell sharply

South Bay immigrant groups said, however, that while they can't discount the national report, they don't see any local evidence of an exodus of illegal immigrants from the Bay Area.

There are not any signs of an exodus; in fact illegal immigrants from Arizona and Oklahoma have been showing up here; the local illegals are complaining about increased competition for a decreasing amount of available work.

They are likely not leaving. They are simply relocating to those states that have less stringent laws and with more favorable attitudes towards illegal invaders. Just because they sent fewer remittances home, does not mean they left this country. It just means they sent fewer remittances home!

As long as they these people can work with impunity, they will remain. As long as their offspring get US citizenship conferred upon them, opening a treasure trove of goodies, they will stay. As long as the southern border is remains open, they will continue to come and return when they are deported.

Originally Posted by zeezil

Originally Posted by vortex

One drawback of Camarota's and Jensenius's method, said Jeffery S. Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center, a widely regarded expert on estimating the illegal immigrant population, is that "it tracks something that correlates with the number of illegal immigrants rather than the actual number of illegal immigrants, and it assumes the correlation remains the same."

What?!!!

Yeah...WHHHHHHAAAAAAAT???

It sounds like Camorata is saying that there is actually more illegals here than we think there are.......or, is he saying that because the population is so fluid, it's impossible to ever tell for certain?