Thread: Avian Flu: Bush's Call To Be On the Offensive Too Late ?

from rense.com

Romania And Turkey
Report New Bird
Flu Outbreaks
From Patricia Doyle, PhD
dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com
By Radu Marinas from 10-8
10-9-5


BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romania and Turkey reported new cases of avian flu on Saturday and began culling hundreds of birds to prevent the globally feared disease from spreading.

If the Romanian cases turn out to be the deadly H5N1 virus, they would be the first evidence the strain has spread to Europe from Asia, where it has killed 65 people and millions of birds since 2003. Russia and Kazakhstan have already had outbreaks.

Experts fear the H5N1 virus could mutate into one which spreads easily among humans, creating a pandemic that might kill millions. The so-called Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 killed between 20 and 40 million people worldwide.

Ion Agafitei, Romania's chief veterinarian, told reporters three birds had tested positive in the Danube delta village of Smardan after the first cases emerged in another village on Friday.

Further tests, some in Britain, were planned to discover whether the strain is H5N1.

CNN Turk television quoted Turkish Farm Minister Mehdi Eker as saying bird flu had been discovered in Turkey for the first time.

The television station said turkeys had died of the disease on a farm in Balikesir province near the Aegean Sea in western Turkey. All animals on the farm had been slaughtered.

"Yesterday, unfortunately, we experienced a case of bird flu. But everything is under control, every precautionary measure has been taken to prevent it spreading," CNN Turk quoted Eker as saying. The minister gave no details.

The farm is located near a natural park known for its rich birdlife. CNN Turk quoted the provincial deputy governor, Halil Yavuz Kaya, as saying the turkeys could have contracted the disease from migratory birds.

VILLAGERS ANGRY

In Romania, quarantines were imposed on the two affected villages and five others which had suspicious bird deaths in recent days. No livestock may be taken from the delta to market.

In Ceamurlia de Jos, a few km (miles) from the Black Sea, men with white masks poisoned dozens of birds with carbon dioxide before burning them.

"Nobody dares to eat poultry here after what happened," Mihai Carciumaru, the mayor of the village, told Reuters.

"I attended a wedding today and I asked doctors to check whether the guests had poultry on their menu. But it's not the case, they've all decided to eat pork."

Romanian television showed peasants from the village saying large numbers of poultry had died in recent days.

"Mysteriously my birds die one after another. I've lost 45 geese and authorities will kill the rest leaving me with nothing," an angry villager told private station Antena 3.

The Danube delta contains Europe's largest wetlands and is a major migratory area for wild birds coming from Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Germany. The birds mainly move to warmer areas in North Africa including the Nile delta for winter.

Romanian authorities banned hunting across the delta, which is home to 14,000 people, and sent medical teams to test for possible human cases.

Bulgaria, which is seen as a potential next destination for the bird flu outbreak, said it had not yet registered any cases. Veterinary officials said they would travel to the Danube river border region to monitor the implementation of safety rules.

The New York Times said a draft of the U.S. government's final plan for dealing with a flu pandemic showed the country was woefully unprepared.

The document says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks" and that more than 1.9 million people could die.

(Additional reporting by Martin Dokoupil and Marius Zaharia)


Patricia A. Doyle, PhD
Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message board at:

http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?
Cat=&Board=emergingdiseases

Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
Go with God and in Good Health

Dead Wild
Geese In Romania -
Quarantines Expanded
By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD
Recombinomics.com
10-9-5


"He said that quarantines have been declared in Ceamurlia de Jos, Maliuc, Malcoci, Agighiol, Babina, Chilia, Smârdan and Jurilovca, where bird flu cases might appear.

"In the Ceamurlia de Jos case, we have currently identified the bird flu antibodies, and we will isolate the virus and will send the sample to a laboratory in Great Britain to confirm the bird flu'''', Agafitei said.

According to ANSVSA representatives, the number of dead birds, including those killed by the sanitary veterinary authorities, reached 468 (hens, ducks, geese, turkey hens and swans).

They had also collected samples from two dead wild geese in Ialomita County.

The main symptoms of the birds suspected are heavy breathing, diarrhea, changes in the head and neck areas, etc."

The finding of dead wild geese in the adjacent county of Ialomita provides additional evidence that the deaths of the domestic birds are due to H5N1 wild bird flu. Ialomita County is southwest of Tulcea Country and is just northeast of Bucharest.

Wild geese are usually not killed by H5N1, but the H5N1 found in bar headed geese at Qinhai Lake in China had the unusual property of killing wild birds. The dead wild geese in Romania may signal similar infections. The appearance of H5N1 in Romania would provide additional evidence that H5N1 does not burn itself out in wild bird populations, but is readily transmitted and transported.

H5N1 in the wild birds would also suggest that H5N1 is widely distributed in Europe, although only government officials in Romania and Turkey have described bird die offs that were likely due to H5N1 wild bird flu from Siberia.

The announcements by these two countries, and verification of H5N1 by Great Briton will likely lead to a number of additional reports of H5N1 in Europe and the Middle East. The expansion of H5N1 in these areas is expected to be rapid, and each reported country will mark a first reported incident of H5N1.

The dramatic expansion of geographical reach will significantly increase the likelihood of a significant H5N1 pandemic.


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© 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.

H5 Confirmed In Turkey
By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD
Recombinomics.com
10-9-5


"Anatolia, quoting officials, said the birds in Turkey died of the H5 type of bird flu - but it was not immediately clear whether it is the exact strain that health officials are particularly worried about."

Finding H5 in turkeys in Turkey near a migratory bird path leaves little doubt that H5N1 wild bird flu has arrived in Romania and Turkey. The unresolved issue relates to the number of additional European countries that have H5N1 and have failed to report cases.

H5N1 is a reportable disease, the expectations of an arrival in Europe are well known. The initial Romanian cases were on September 26, but there have been several additional reports that have not been officially announced. It seems likely that many of the rumors of H5N1 in Iran, Germany, and Hungary are true, and many other countries in Europe also have H5N1 wild bird flu.

The meeting in Washington was held in part because of a lack of transparency in countries in Asia, and it seems that the same lack of transparency exists in Europe.

It seems likely that the number of announcements in the upcoming days will be large, but the lack of reports to date extends the scandalous H5N1 surveillance from Asia to Europe.

Webmaster: webmaster@recombinomics.com
© 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.

Suspected Human H5N1
Bird Flu Cases
In Hungary?
By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD
Recombinomics.com
10-9-5


"A poultry breeder in Hungary is also suspect of avian influenza."

The media report citing three human cases in Ceamula de Jos, also cites another human case in Hungary. Additional H5N1 wild bird flu infections in Europe would not be unexpected. There have already been reports of poultry deaths in Romania and Turkey, so infections in Hungary would not e a surprise.

However, these are the first reported human cases linked to H5N1 wild bird flu.

More information on these initial reports would be useful.

Webmaster: webmaster@recombinomics.com
© 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.

Three Suspect H5N1
Bird Flu Cases In Romania?
By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD
Recombinomics.com
10-9-5


"Minister Flutur confirmed yesterday evening that 3 people infected with avian influenza virus were discovered in Romanian locality Ceamurlia de Jos. Officials took the first measure: the entire Romania Delta is in quarantine. All the poultry in households in Romanian Delta localities will be killed and owners will be paid damages. Already killed poultry in refrigerators will be incinerated. One ambulance was sent to the Delta and all the inhabitants will be vaccinated against the 'bird flu'.".

The above report describes three human H5N1 wild bird flu cases. If confirmed, these would be the first H5N1 human cases reported outside of southeast Asia and would be the first cases directly tied to H5N1 wild bird flu. There have been third party reports of human cases in China, but not have been confirmed by third parties.

There is also a possibility that the above cases are just a poor translation of the 3 dead ducks in Ceamurlia de Jos.

Although H5N1 in Russia has been closely related to the H5N1 bird flu at Qinghai Lake, there have been no reported confirmed human cases in Russia, Kazakhstan, or Mongolia, although the pneumonia in a poultry worker in Kazakhstan was never fully explained.

If the human cases are H5N1 positive, the the migratory wild birds will cause considerable concern. It is likely that the wild bird strains are sensitive to the amantadines, so amantadine (Symmetrel) and rimantadine (Flumadine) may be in high demand in Europe if the neuraminidase inhibitors, Tamiflu and Relenza, are in short supply,

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© 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.

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Migratory Birds
Over Great Distances
Dr. Patricia Doyle, PhD
10-8-5

Hello, Jeff - Notice in this first link how the flyways bring birds from China, etc,
right into the Phillipines.

http://www.oneocean.org/ambassadors/migratory_
birds/obst/migratory_birds_in_search_of_a_refuge.html

Now, if you look at:

http://www.flu.org.cn/news/2005928759.htm

you can see that some birds use the East Asian Flyway to go to Alaska, while others use it to head down into Australia. The Phillippines is another destination. And there are now suspected cases of H5N1 in the Phillipines.

In Europe, we now have Romania and Turkey with suspected H5 cases. The Euroasian/African flyways can and probably will take the virus into the Mddle East and Africa.

Patricia Doyle

Patricia A. Doyle, PhD
Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message board at:

http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?
Cat=&Board=emergingdiseases

Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
Go with God and in Good Health

do you want more?

www.rense.com

2000 Turkeys Die In
Turkey From Bird
Flu - TV Report
From Patricia Doyle, PhD
dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com
10-8-5

Hello, Jeff - As you know I have been following the various migratory bird flyways and predicting where the flu will hit next. When it reached Russia, I suspected that it would next hit the Balkins. There are various flyways, including the flyway from Russia which takes the birds and the flu into Turkey and further into the Middle East.

The flyway that took birds into the Balkins will eventually take them into north Africa and then further into equitorial Africa, eventually, bringing bird flu into South Africa and every stop along the way.

There is also the Australasian flyway which takes birds from east Asia into Australia.

For more information on flyways and migratory bird tracking:

Wetlands International, Audubon Society and various governmental migratory sites.

http://www.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/migr ... pter2.html

http://www.abc.net.au/wing/community/le ... lyinfo.htm

http://www.cms.int/species/aewa/aew_bkrd.htm

www.earthwatch.org/expeditions/lovei/lovei_04.pdf

Predicting where the bird flu will go is relatively easy. Simply follow the migratory bird flyways originating at the areas of infection and following Spring and Fall migrations.

http://www.flu.org.cn/news/2005928759.htm

Please note that the Australian/East Asian migratory flyway does take birds into Alaska. Once in Alaska birds using Pacific flyway can overlap and exchange of pathogens, such as H5N1 can occur.

Patricia Doyle

A ProMED-mail post
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
ISIDorg

2000 Turkeys Dead From Avian Flu In Turkey -TV Report

(Reuters) -- About 2000 turkeys have died from avian flu in western Turkey, CNN Turk reported on Saturday, Oct 8 2005, in the 1st known case among domestic birds in this country since the recent outbreak of the disease in Asia.

"Yesterday, unfortunately, we experienced a case of bird flu. But everything is under control, every precautionary measure has been taken to prevent it spreading," the television channel quoted Farm Minister Mehdi Eker as saying.

ProMED-mail

(More, and official, details will be appreciated, particularly results of laboratory tests, to confirm -- or, hopefully, exclude the involvement of H5N1. A low-pathogenic H9N2 avian influenza A virus is known to be present during recent years in various Middle-Eastern countries, moderately affecting chickens and turkeys. - Mod. AS).

Patricia A. Doyle, PhD
Please visit my "Emerging Diseases" message board at:

http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?
Cat=&Board=emergingdiseases

Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa
Go with God and in Good Health

I just heard on The Schnitt Show which is broadcast on WIOD from Miami that in Asia everyone getting on and off airplanes is having their temperature taken.

They went on to talk about the danger of smuggling of people from China etc. (I didn't hear all of that part). But I did hear them talking about the temperatures being taken at airports.

Well, that's good. At least they're staying on top of things.

Perhaps El Presidente of Amerika should order temperatures to be taken at the borders. He would probably let the border patrol do that much.

They are doing a good job of saying that they just want to see what people are thinking about this or if they even know about it. But they said that it's important that people not panic, because it may not even happen. I hope people don't panic because if they do, then they may not tell us everything. That's what I don't want. It's better that we know what is going on.

By the way, it just came to mind, that this weekend I was walking into a store with our youngest child. When we got in she said, "Mommy, did you see that?" I said, "What?" She said there was a dead bird laying on top of the trash can by the door to the store. Now that I think about it, I wonder if terrorists could put infected dead birds around areas ?? I should have been more alert and at least informed the manager about it.
Darn. Now I could kick myself for being so stupid and not realizing that I should have payed more attention to what she said.

BUCHAREST (AFP) - Romania began to administer anti-flu vaccines to thousands of people amid fears that the avian flu detected the day before may be the deadly strain that has killed over 60 in southeast Asia.

Health authorities said that based on preliminary tests they feared that three ducks in the southeastern Tulcea region had been infected with the H5N1 strain transmissible to humans.
The head of Romania's National Animal Health Institute, Stefan Nicolae, told AFP Saturday that migratory birds from Russia had carried the H5N1 virus into the country.

But final confirmation of Europe's first contamination by the deadly version of the virus was being awaited from a lab in Britain.

"These first three cases of avian flu will however be analysed by a European Union-approved British laboratory. We expect the results in the coming weeks," Nicolae said.

The H5N1 avian flu virus has mainly been found in 10 southeast Asian countries and has so far infected 112 people, of whom around 60 have died, according to the World Health Organization.

The deadly strain has been carried by migratory birds as far north and west as Siberian regions of Russia, but has yet to cause any cases in humans there.

Health Minister Eugen Nicolaescu said that no human cases had been detected so far in Romania.

Local authorities said Saturday they had enforced quarantine measures across the southeastern Tulcea region and that the village of Ceamurlia de Jos, where the three infected ducks had been found, had been sealed off.

The ducks are thought to have been infected by migrating birds bringing the virus from Russia.

The area contains a large nature reserve, and is a key stopping point for migratory birds.

Some 500 chickens suspected of having contacted the virus were destroyed Saturday, and authorities asked local farmers to report any birds showing signs of the disease, promising compensation for any losses.

More than 700 residents of the delta were given general anti-flu vaccines on Saturday and some 3,000 people will have received the jabs by Sunday, he said.

"Romania does not have a specific vaccine for avian flu. However this anti-flu vaccine is important as it helps to enhance immunity," health ministry spokeswoman Oana Grigore told AFP.

"The risk of a disaster is remote if the population is vaccinated against influenza," Nicolaescu told news media.

A free of charge nationwide flu vaccination campaign began a week ago and some 500,000 doses have been stockpiled, according to the ministry.

"In all we need nearly 1.5 million doses. So we will be making an international appeal for donations in the next few days," Nicolaescu said, adding that Romania also planned to stock up on anti-viral drug Tamiflu.

The minister said he would ask the WHO for logistical support and a "sharing of expertise" on the disease.

"We want to know what the exact symptoms of the disease are and what the best treatment is," Nicolaescu said.

Bucharest also announced Saturday that border controls between Romania and its eastern neighbour Moldova had been stepped up, with all meat products in luggage being confiscated.

Romania has already suspended poultry imports from 15 countries.


http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u ... 1008221450

Makes you feel all good inside. I am personally boosting my immune system using vitamins, at least until CODEX takes affect.

More Bird Flu in the news today from www.rense.com

Romania Whooper Swan Deaths Raise H5N1 Concerns

H5N1 Wild Bird Deaths Reported In Bulgaria

Five H5N1 Researchers Under Observation In Turkey

Suspect H5N1 Case Hospitalized In Turkey

H5N1 Bird Flu Reaches The Phillipines

H5N1 Bird Flu Testing Of Ducks Ongoing In Alaska

http://www.usatoday.com

Posted 10/11/2005 10:34 PM

Avian flu fears spur Tamiflu demand
By Julie Schmit, USA TODAY
While governments boost public stockpiles of Tamiflu to protect against a possible avian flu pandemic, consumer demand is spiking, too.
Tamiflu, the No. 1 antiviral, and Relenza, a much smaller rival, decrease the severity of regular flu. They also may be effective against the avian flu virus in Southeast Asia, which has no proven vaccine.

Market researcher Verispan, which collects prescription data from U.S. pharmacies, says U.S. prescriptions for Tamiflu hit 34,388 for the week ending Oct. 7, up 713% from the same period last year.

No. 1 online pharmacist Drugstore.com, says it has sold more Tamiflu in the past five weeks than in the last six months of last year. Demand "is off the charts," says spokesman Greg French.

Verispan says Relenza prescriptions spiked, too, up to 483 for the week ending Oct. 7, compared with 91 for the same period last year.

Roche, which makes Tamiflu, says it has enough for this flu season. Drugstore chains CVS and Rite Aid say they have supplies and haven't seen big spikes in demand.

Some doctors say more consumers are asking for Tamiflu, largely because of avian flu fears. Avian flu has infected 117 people in Asia, killing 60.

"We certainly are getting more requests," says Gregory Poland, director of the vaccine research group at Mayo Clinic. He and other doctors recommend against widespread Tamiflu prescriptions, because there is no avian flu in the USA and stockpiling by consumers will reduce Tamiflu supplies for those who may really need the drug, especially if the regular flu season is severe. Public health officials also fear that overuse could lead to flu viruses becoming resistant to the drug. Roche says resistance is very infrequent and that there's been only one documented case in Asia of avian flu resistance to Tamiflu.

The U.S. has stockpiled enough anti-virals to treat 1% of the population and recently announced plans to get enough to treat 20 million people. The U.K., France, Finland, Norway, Switzerland and New Zealand are ordering enough to cover 20% to 40% of their populations, says Roche spokesman Terence Hurley.

Roche, which doubled manufacturing capacity in 2004, will double it again this year, launch some manufacturing in the USA and add more capacity next year, he adds.

GlaxoSmithKline says it's making more Relenza, which is inhaled. The U.S. is buying 84,300 Relenza treatments. Like Tamiflu, which is taken orally, it costs about $60 for a five-day supply.

Through the first half of 2005, Tamiflu sales hit $450 million, Roche says, compared with $255 million for all of last year. Relenza sales last year were $5.5 million.

Deadly Asian bird flu reaches fringes of Europe

Oct 13, 8:45 AM (ET)

By Jeremy Smith

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A strain of bird flu that can be deadly for humans has spread from Asia to the fringes of Europe, the European Commission said on Thursday, warning countries to prepare for a potential pandemic.

EU Health and Consumer Protection chief Markos Kyprianou said a strain of bird flu found in Turkey had been identified as the same H5N1 virus that killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003 and forced the slaughter of millions of birds.

The European Union's executive was also assuming that bird flu found in Romania was the same virulent strain, he said, though further tests are needed to confirm this.

"The virus found in Turkey is avian flu H5N1 high pathogenic virus," he told a news conference. "It's true that scientists caution us and warn us that there will be a pandemic."

Experts fear H5N1 could mutate into a virus which spreads easily among humans, possibly killing millions of people.

The European Commission has banned imports of live birds and poultry meat from both Turkey, where it was discovered at a farm near the Aegean and Marmara seas, and Romania.

Romania said it had detected bird flu in the Danube delta, a major migratory area for wild birds coming from Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Germany. The birds mainly move to warmer areas in North Africa including the Nile delta for winter.

Romania's chief veterinarian Ion Agafitei told Reuters scientists detected the avian influenza virus in samples taken from three ducks which died last week.

The samples will be sent to a British laboratory, where it could take up to two days to establish the type of virus, British scientist Ruth Manvell said.

THOUSANDS OF BIRDS CULLED

Thousands of birds have been culled in Turkey and Romania to prevent the spread of the disease.

In Turkey, Yuce Canoler of the Poultry and Breeding Stock Producers, told Reuters there was no need for additional measures on top of steps already being taken by Turkey. "We've already tried to take measures by considering the worse case scenarios."

Farm Ministry official Beytullah Okay told CNN Turk there were no plans to widen the current 3-km (2-mile) quarantine zone around the one farm affected to date.

"All the meat from birds killed in the zone by veterinary teams is healthy. Well-cooked, it can be eaten," he said.

Bird flu began sweeping through Thai poultry flocks in late 2003, all but wiping out markets for what was then the world's fourth largest poultry exporter.

Avian flu is currently transmitted to humans only if they eat or live in close contact with infected birds. But scientists say the H5N1 strain is mutating toward a form that could pass between humans.

Kyprianou said the European Commission was considering establishing a 1 billion euro "solidarity fund" to help pay for anti-virals in the event of a pandemic.

He said the Commission had been in talks with pharmaceutical companies about boosting the capacity to produce such drugs.

EU experts on avian influenza and migratory birds will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Friday.

The Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health said on Thursday that 3,673 wild waterfowl had died in Iran, but the cause was unclear.

"No pathological agent has been identified yet," it said on its Web site, citing a report from Iran's chief veterinary officer. "No post-mortem lesions are seen in the dead birds; weakness and death are the only evidence."

In Iran, the veterinary authority said no signs of bird flu had been discovered. "We don't know the reason," spokesman Behrouz Yasemi said. "We have quarantined the area."

Bulgaria has tested around 30 birds discovered dead around the country for avian flu but found no cases of the disease, officials said on Thursday.

Greek health authorities were checking a Portuguese-flagged cargo ship near the port of Piraeus after finding suspect dead and living migratory birds on board.

http://reuters.myway.com/article/200510 ... LU-DC.html

More news:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-10-07-voa17.cfm

Taiwan to Monitor Travelers in Effort to Control Bird Flu
By Steve Herman
Taipei
07 October 2005

Taiwan is instituting measures to try to prevent a human outbreak of avian influenza on the island. The authorities there now insist that everyone entering Taiwan from parts of Southeast Asia monitor his body temperature for signs of flu.



Starting Monday, anyone arriving here from Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia or Vietnam will be presented with a form to record his or her body temperature twice a day for 10 days.

Since late 2003, the four Southeast countries have reported more than 60 human deaths attributed to the H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Michel Lu, said Friday the government hopes increased vigilance by travelers will reduce the possibility of a human outbreak of the disease on Taiwan.


Michael Ching-long Lu
"Once you come back, (for) 10 days, follow up temperature checkup," he explained. "You should make your checkup after your visit from those Southeast Asian countries because of avian flu. We would like to prevent a so-called outbound invasion."

Taiwan's Health Department says any arriving passenger who does not inform authorities of a fever, and transmits influenza to others will be breaking the law, and will face a fine of up to $470.

Most, or all, of the human victims have caught bird flu by handling infected poultry. But health experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that is easily passed between humans, setting the stage for a possible pandemic that could kill millions of people worldwide.

While taking unilateral steps against the disease, Taiwanese officials complain that China is endangering the island's 23 million citizens, by preventing Taiwanese health officials from participating in the World Health Organization and other organizations concerned with the possible pandemic.

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province, and contends that it is part of "one China." Taiwan's government says Beijing will only allow private medical experts from Taiwan to participate in the WHO, and only as representatives of "Taipei, China."

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu calls that, and China's assertion that it can take care of the health of the population here, an insult to Taiwan's dignity.

"They reiterate that they can take care of our health here. Certainly it is a joke - joke of the century," he said.

The 2003 outbreak of SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, respected no borders or political philosophies, and spread around the world, including Taiwan. Since then, the United States has supported Taiwan's bid to join the WHO, despite Beijing's opposition.