Thread: Avian Flu: Bush's Call To Be On the Offensive Too Late ?

www.10news.com

Doctor: Bird Flu Could Result In Worldwide Pandemic
San Diego Lab Works On Vaccine

POSTED: 5:45 pm PDT September 26, 2005
UPDATED: 6:07 pm PDT September 26, 2005

SAN DIEGO -- Two more children in Indonesia have died from what health authorities believe is the avian flu.

The effort continues to find a vaccine to fight the virus.

Hospital beds in Indonesia are filling up, and the death toll continues to climb as cases of the so-called bird flu are on the rise.

For now, the virus has spread by direct contact with infected animals, specifically domestic birds like chickens, but the worry is that it could mutate.

"The problem would be if the virus acquired (a) certain change so that it could spread very efficiently from one individual to another individual," Dr. Roger Bitar, with Kaiser Hospital said.

Bitar said this could result in a worldwide pandemic.

In laboratories like the one belonging to Vical Incorporated in Sorrento Mesa, it's a race against time to develop a vaccine.

Vical received a $3 million grant to develop a vaccine that will attack on two fronts, 10News reported.

"The conventional vaccine works only for the antibodies, which are (the) bullets. Our vaccine goes after antibodies and D-cells -- the soldiers. So you have the soldiers and the bullets, which could actually go after the pathogen," Vijay Samant, with Vical Incorporated, said.

Vical is working in conjunction with St. Judes Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., which is gearing up to test against two strains of the avian flu.

But what would happen if the strain out of Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand spread and mutated into something completely different?

"If we pick the wrong pathogen to develop a vaccine and a new strain comes out, then vaccine development is futile," Samant said.

And if the strain is that different, work in the lab would have to start over, 10news reported.

Should a bird flu pandemic hit, billions of doses of vaccines would be needed, but drug companies are reluctant to invest since the vaccine may not work if it's for the wrong strain.

Fatal Jakarta H5N1Case
Misdiagnosed As Dengue
By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD
Recombinomics.com
9-27-5

Note - The first two paragraphs is a software translation.

Not old at intervals of, Karwati again cut off one chicken and only was eaten by his family. Further was reported Karwati on Monday September 19 experienced the fever. Because never recovered, Karwati was brought to RS Medika Cikarang that was located around 1 km from his house.

"He entered RS Medika on Tuesday morning." Initially Karwati was diagnosed suffered typhus. Afterwards vomited blood and the nosebleed, afterwards were diagnosed by dengue fever. However when tell about chronological before Karwati was sick, the RS side at once reconciled RSPI Sulianti Saroso, he said.
_____

The above machine translation indicates that the latest confirmed H5N1 fatality was initially misdiagnosed as having dengue fever. She was transferred to Sulianti Saraos because she had eaten a bird that had died suddenly. Thus, had that history not been revealed, or if the bird appeared healthy because of an asymptomatic H5N1 infection, it is likely that the H5N1 would have been recorded as another dengue fever death in Indonesia. Thus far this year Indonesia has recorded 538 fatalities from dengue fever.

The entire area is reporting unusually high number of cases of dengue fever. The Philippines has recorded 259 dengue fever deaths.

Last year the index case of human-to-human transmission in Thailand was diagnosed as dengue fever because she vomited blood and had a nose bleed. She fatally infected her mother, who was H5N1 positive. Her aunt was also H5N1 positive.

The confusion of pandemic influenza with dengue fever was also seen in the 1918 flu pandemic. Many patients had internal bleeding and bleeding under this skin. This led to mis-diagnosis of dengue fever, typhoid, and cholera.

The spread of H5N1 in Indonesia suggests monitoring efforts in the region are far from adequate. Indonesia now has 10 acknowledged H5N1 cases. Six have died and one has been discharged. Two are in South Sulaweto, indicating H5N1 in humans has spread far and wide.

The number of H5N1 cases in Indonesia and the area in general is unknown because of the lack of H5N1 testing combined with false negatives. Indeed, only one of the three family members in Tangerang is an official H5N1 cases, although all three clearly died from H5N1 infections.

An increased screening of patients is long overdue, and the latest fatality should make it clear that the number of H5N1 case misdiagnosed as dengue fever may be very large.


© 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.

Confirmed H5N1 Bird
Flu Deaths In Jakarta
Increase To Six
By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD
Recombinomics.com
9-27-5

Note - The first paragraph is a software translation.

From 10 positive cases of birds flu, six people including dying namely Iwan Siswara, his two daughters Sabrina and Thalita, Rini Ignoble, Riska and Karwati. Whereas four positive patients birds flu that still was living namely Paradise, Gayatri pearls and two patients from South Sulawesi. The "complete name that from South Sulawesi, I forgot," said Kandun.
_____

The machine translation above includes two recent H5N1 bird flu deaths in the Jakarta area. The most recent is Karwati a mother of two who has been described in media repots as being 27 or 30. One report indicates she has a connection with the Ragunan Zoo, but most reports link her exposure to 15 birds that died near her home, including one or more that was eaten. Another was given to neighbors and they are undergoing testing. Her death is the first strongly linked to birds who had suddenly died.

The other case, Riska, died last week and was just confirmed to be H5N1 positive. She also had contact with dead birds, but also had a pet bird, which again focuses attention on pet birds. The first three H5N1 reported fatalities were in a family from Tangerang. The birdcage across the street from their residence was H5N1 positive.

The above report also indicates H5N1 patients have been identified in South Sulawesi. These data indicate that the H5N1 in humans in Indonesia is widespread, In addition to the 10 confirmed cases, there are 32 cases being investigated.

There is considerable concern over false negatives or misdiagnosis. Rini Ignoble's (Rini Dina's) nephew, Paradise initially was H5N1 positive by PCR, but is now being discharged and is H5N1 negative, He will be the first discharged positive patient. Thus, collections from patients after the H5N1 has been cleared from serum will fail to detect the infection. Similarly, misdiagnosis is common. Karwati was initially diagnosed as having typhus, which was changed to Dengue Fever when she vomited blood and was bleeding from her nose. This presentation sounds similar to the index case in Thailand, who subsequently infected her mother and aunt.

The above negatives and mis-diagnosis of Dengue Fever raise serious questions about the monitoring of H5N1 in Indonesia and throughout the region.

Webmaster: webmaster@recombinomics.com
© 2005 Recombinomics. All rights reserved.


for more stories and news see:

http://www.rense.com/Datapages/h5data.htm

China sets flu pandemic contingency plan

www.chinaview.cn 2005-09-28 21:43:27

BEIJING, Sept. 28 (Xinhuanet) -- China's Ministry of Health (MOH) on Wednesday launched a contingency plan for enhancing national readiness against a possible outbreak of pandemic influenza.

The contingency plan outlines the structure of national prevention steering and enforcement systems, logistics, emergency reaction and supervision.

MOH urged all localities to draft their own contingency plans in accordance with local conditions and make good preparations for a possible flu pandemic.

Four levels of alert -- red, orange, yellow and blue -- will indicate the seriousness of a pandemic outbreak.

The most serious level, "red", will be announced in case of the consistent and rapid spread of new sub-type flu virus, or if the World Health Organization (WHO) announces the outbreak of a flu pandemic.

Health authorities above the county level must mobilize all medical resources and set up temporary clinics in case a red alertis announced, and the MOH must release daily reports on the surveillance and control of the pandemic to keep the public well informed, according to the plan.

The MOH is held accountable for organizing and coordinating epidemic contingency work and, if needed, raising suggestions for establishing a national public health contingency headquarters to the State Council, says the plan.

Meanwhile, health authorities above the county level should ensure the collection, registry and delivery of flu virus samples for testing, and the National Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) should establish a national system to manage the surveillance information of influenza and avian influenza.

China has a weak basis for public health and medical services. The disease surveillance network needs improvement and the production capacity of vaccines and drugs is inadequate, said the information office of the MOH.

A flu pandemic could arouse turbulent public pandemonium if the country is poorly prepared, it noted.

Influenza, an acute respiratory disease caused by influenza virus, can spread quickly among people with high mortality rate.

Four pandemic flu outbreaks took place in the world in the 20th century, namely from 1918 to 1919 in Spain, 1957 to 1958 in Asia, 1968 to 1969 in Hong Kong and 1977 in Russia. Each caused huge economic losses and killed millions of people.

In the Spanish pandemic, the flu killed 21 million people and infected 600 million others. The toll exceeded deaths in World WarI.

WHO has warned against a possible breakout of another pandemic flu in the world. It has promulgated a planning guide book for countries to prevent pandemic flu. Countries including the United States and Canada have already worked out plans.

China is a historical breakout place of pandemic influenza. The viruses of the last three global influenza pandemics were first found in China. About half of the flu vaccine virus released by the WHO after 1988 have been collected by China. Enditem

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005- ... 559051.htm

you scareme
you really do
this virus is spreading like crazy
it is better if we can do something fast
president bush is really concerned that if not checked it can turn in a pandemic
i read an interesting article about the flu at http://www.drugdelivery.ca/bird-flu.aspx

Nothing will be done. Inbound flights will continue un-abated. Perhaps they will look out for the worst cases, but everybody else will come in un-screened. Remember that last outbreak? SARS was it?

I never heard about any travel restrictions.


Toronto had its share of cases, too.

No doubt the flights will continue, even if the epidemic "over there" becomes catastophic.


Never fear, the new FEMA chief has advised us, in the case of flu epidemic, to put a plastic bag over your head, and seal it with lots of DUCT tape, that way you wont catch the virus.



pa

So people can buy Tamiflu through this site? How much does it cost and what's the delivery time?

W

I hope everyone had a chance to read the New York Times article I posted about 9 posts up about the ineffectiveness of flu treatments. What works today will probably not work in the future since the viruses quickly mutate and become resistant to the drugs and vaccines. While the article said Tamiflu was currently effective against the bird flu it expected the drug to quickly lose its effectiveness with heavy usage. If there is a major influenza pandemic there is little that can be done to stop it.

Brian,

If there is another flu pandemic like the Spanish Flu 90 years ago and millions are falling then you will see a lot of crazy recommendations flying. People will try about anything.


Do you remember when there was a run on vinegar in SE Asia two years ago when SARS broke out? People thought that boiling vinegar in the home would help prevent the spread.

My plan for a possible pandemic is to hunker down for about 3-4 months if I can and work from home trying to make it till the vaccine is developed.

It is hard to imagine what something as powerful or worse than the Spanish flue would bring in the year 2005.

It is hoped that with our advances in medical knowledge and treatements that the mortality rate could be lowered substantially.

Lucky for me, I can work my primary job by setting up a phone forward and tying into the mainframe computers at work via remote. That with a mail forward in action is about all I need.

Everyone I know likes to be prepared. Preparing for an ice storm or a hurricane is something we are all used to. This is different yet there are similiarities.

I recommend that anyone that wants to be prepared for a possible pandemic do the following.

1. INFORMATION: Try to spot it coming if possible. Tie into information sources that are independent of the Federal Govt to have a heads up if it starts. Remember the anthrax BS? Does everyone remember when they were lieing thru their teeth about the first anthrax incidents?

2. PROVISIONS: Everyone should always have a stocked pantry full of dry goods, bottled water, a range of medicines, and extras (candles, matches, grill propane, sanitizer, pet supplies, first aid kit, etc...) Best thing to do is set up a rotation system so you always have at least a two month supply of necessities for you and your family that is replaced as you use some of them. Use the oldest first, then buy new goods and place them in rotation.

3. EXTRA PROVISIONS: I remember when the stocks for face masks went through the roof back in 2003 during the SARS scare. If you want to have extra materials that would come in handy during a severe influenza pandemic them stock up on the following.

Surgical masks, surgical hair covers, GermX, Lysol, Rubbing Alcohol, rubber gloves, goggles, etc..

You may look like a dork, but during a pandemic these are things you would want to have if you had to venture outside.

4. HAVE A GUN: See New Orleans / Katrina In a pandemic the police, if they are even still on the job will not be very concerned about your "petty" problems with the neighbors that failed to prepare and panic.

5. PLANNING: Think through you routines and the routines and work schedules for your family. Insist other family members consider what choices they would make if a severe global flu pandemic broke out. It would not be good to wait till the man is on the screen saying "It's here" What decisions would you make about travel, location, work, distant family etc....? These considerations and decisions are going to go better if they are thought out and discussed BEFORE a crisis hits. Of course things can change based on current information, but a good pre-plan is your best option.

6. LEARN ABOUT THE FLU: We learned from the SARS outbreak and Katrina that going to the hospital or a place the government recommends may not be your best option. There are a host of secondary treatements that people should know about the Flu. Most victims die from dehydration so learning how to keep a fever in check, keep a victim hyrdrated, keep a victim isolated etc... are things people should look into. Try to invision a situation where your spouse has the Super Flu and you are the sole treatement giver. You may only have a short period of time before you are infected as well. A strong knowledge base and plan of treatement is up to you. Got Tamiflu stocked? Give it a try. Got antibiotics to help prevent secondary infections, Give it a try. Got vitamins and herbs to boost the immune system? Give it a try.

7. THE IMMUNE SYSTEM: If you are a smoker, quit. If you are smoker when the pandemic comes. Quit (but stay away from your gun for a few days ) I'm personally a big believer in Vitamin C, Multivitamins, and Echinacea. I know that Echinacea has faced a lot of "studies" that claim it does not good, but the North American indians used it religiously to fight INFLUENZA. I know people that really believe in it and I'm one of them. Whenever I feel a cold or cough coming on I hit the vitamins and "E" while drinking lots of fluids and water. Ive had good responses this way.

8. WASH THOSE HANDS / DON't TOUCH YOUR FACE: One of the final things I will mention is these basic techniques which many claim were one of the most important ways the SARS outbreak was brought under control. Regular hand washing and avoiding touching your face cuts off one of the top ways illness is auto infected. The bug gets on the hands, then moves to the face, then into your system. SARS taught us that people can break the chain. Also, no spitting.

I think it is important that people stay calm and very level headed about a potential flu pandemic, but at the same time some very simple planning and preparations are good common sense.

When the World Health Organization and the CDC are all saying we are close to the BIG ONE. Well, that's a good sign it's time to prepare and make some inexpenisve and simple preparations.

Just like any natural disaster, there are those that are prepared and part of the solution and then there are those that will be caught unprepared that will be an added part of the problem once it happens.

Which one are you?

W

www.ajc.com

CDC locks up flu data
Critics call policy too restrictive

By REBECCA CARR
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/03/05
Washington â€â€