Thread: Billions in trade with Florida at risk, Mexico official says

So we keep our produce in the US...and Mexico can keep theirs in Mexico.

We have Wisconsin cheese. We have bison. We have fish.

We can trade with other countries who do NOT dump their drugs and people and problems on us and extort us for money.

Mexico is NOT our friend.

The idea of a border-adjusted tax just ran into trouble in the Senate



Canada says would respond if U.S. imposed new border tariffs

Report: Texas is the biggest loser in Mexico trade war

By David Hendricks, San Antonio Express-News
Updated 7:02 am, Wednesday, February 8, 2017

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Photo: Bob Owen /San Antonio Express-News


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Trump's trade war


A recent study by WalletHub shows which states would be most impacted by Trump's 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods.


Click through to see which states would be the most and least affected by a Mexico-U.S trade war.



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Trucks line up at the U.S. Customs and Border Protection checkpoint at the World Trade Bridge in Laredo. Click ahead to see which states would be the most and least affected by a Mexico-U.S trade war.


Texas would be the biggest loser if the U.S. waged a trade war with Mexico over President Donald Trump’s proposal to build a border wall and impose a 20 percent tariff on goods coming across the Rio Grande, according to a new report by WalletHub.

“If and when the president’s plan comes to fruition, experts predict it will trigger a trade war between our two nations. But the impact of the economic fallout will be different for every state,” the WalletHub report states.

Texas is the No. 1 trading partner in the U.S. with Mexico, making the state particularly vulnerable if the U.S. withdraws from the North American Free Trade Agreement, the report said. Arizona, Michigan, New Mexico and Kentucky round out the top five U.S. states, respectively, hit hardest by a trade war, according to WalletHub.

“The U.S. economy would suffer from withdrawing from NAFTA and would see an immediate impact on the prices for certain products,” added WalletHub.com analyst Jill Gonzalez in an email.

RELATED: In Mexico's NAFTA capital, 'absolute uncertainty' reigns

Roughly 37.7 percent of all exports from Texas go to Mexico, the biggest percentage among all 50 states. That represents 5.8 percent of the state’s gross domestic product, also more than any other state.
Texas gets more imports from Mexico than any other country, roughly 33.2 percent of all of its imported goods.

A trade war wouldn’t be likely to tip either country into an economic recession. “The likelihood of a recession is quite slim for both countries since they have other trading agreements with other countries, and the U.S. economy is quite stable,” Gonzalez said.

“However, a trade war with Mexico could impact U.S. agreements with other countries, as it could create global mistrust.”

Free Trade Alliance San Antonio CEO and President José Martinez said the findings were logical.

RELATED: Backlash against Trump's wall reaches Texas border city

Martinez questioned the report’s premise since Trump hasn’t rolled out specific details on a tariff or on how he wants to renegotiate NAFTA.

“I don’t think the United States will go into a trade war. We need to wait until the United States or Mexico takes a position,” Martinez said.

Since NAFTA went into effect in 1994, at least two disputes — over sugar tariffs and the blocked authorization of Mexican trucks to make U.S. deliveries — raised the possibility of a trade war, he said.

“Eventually, those settled down,” Martinez said.

RELATED: #AdiosProductosGringos threaten U.S. product boycott over Trump's border wall

One question that deserves attention is the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, Martinez said. That’s the difference between the amount of goods exported to Mexico and the amount imported to the U.S. It was about $63.2 billion in 2016, billion according the Office of the U.S. International Trade Representative.

But the Mexico deficit is small when compared with the U.S. trade deficit with China, which was nearly $347 billion in 2016.

“I think this brouhaha with Mexico will be dwarfed when the argument shifts to China,” Martinez said.

Texas’ outsized export and import volumes with Mexico was predicted before NAFTA started.

RELATED: Border congressman condemns Trump's 'trade war' on Mexico

In a 1993 book titled “Continental Shift: Free Trade & the New North America,” author William Orme Jr. devoted a chapter to the “Tex-Mex Axis.”

Source: WalletHub


“NAFTA owes its political life to the Lone Star State. And for good reason,” Orme wrote. “The impact of Mexican trade on the American economy divides the United States neatly in two: Texas, and everywhere else. Mexico now accounts for about a third of total sales by Texas companies outside U.S. borders.”

Gonzalez said other options, besides a high tariff, exist to encourage the U.S. to produce goods domestically instead of outside the country.

“The best way to keep or establish production facilities in the U.S. is through an attractive tax environment supplemented with an easy-to-navigate policy system,” Gonzalez said.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business...o-10915683.php

Mexico may retaliate if U.S. imposes tariffs

Texas agricultural experts say President Trump's threatened tariff on Mexican goods could lead to retaliation that would hurt Texas farmers and ranchers — as well as consumers

BY MARIANA ALFARO FEB. 8, 201712:01 AM


Texas agricultural producers say if the White House slaps a tariff on Mexican products,the state's farmers and ranchers — as well as Texas consumers — could suffer from a Mexican retaliation against U.S. exports.

Two weeks ago, President Donald Trump said the border wall he promised to build between Mexico and the United States could be paid for by placing a 20 percent tax on all Mexican imports. Hours later, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer clarified that this proposal was just one of many approaches currently under review by the administration.

Mexico's economy minister, Idelfonso Guajardo, said in an interview with Mexican television that his country would need to be prepared to "immediately neutralize" the impact of any U.S. border tax.

“And it is very clear how – take a fiscal action that clearly neutralizes it,” he said.

The idea of a tariff on Mexican imports or a radical change to the North American Free Trade Agreement — another Trump promise — worries many Texas agriculture industry leaders, who say it is in the state’s best interest to continue fostering a positive trade relationship with Mexico rather than imposing tariffs on their imports.

^{Mexico is the state’s largest trade partner, overshadowing its two closest competitors, China and Canada, by billions of dollars.}
According to U.S. Census data, in 2015 Mexico imported more than $92 billion worth of goods from Texas, while Texas imported more $84 billion worth of goods from Mexico.

Luis Ribera, an associate professor at Texas A&M University’s Center for North American Studies, said any large-scale tariff on Mexican goods would hurt American consumers more than anyone else by making everything from avocados to tomatoes more expensive for Americans — or compelling Mexico to buy Texas-produced staples like wheat, beef and corn from other countries.

“We're going to lose that market or (if we don’t) lose it, we're going to get tariffs on the products that we send to Mexico,” Ribera said. “So it's going to make our products less competitive when we compete with the rest of the world.”

Steelee Fischbacher, director of policy and marketing at the Texas Wheat Producers Board and Association, said a potential Mexican tax worries the Texas wheat industry because Mexico is the largest importer of hard red winter wheat, the top class of wheat produced in the state. In 2011, the U.S. exported 2.4 million metric tons of hard wheat to Mexico, according to a Texas A&Mstudy.

"Being our number one customer, it's a very critical market for us, especially in a time where we have low wheat prices," she said, adding that Mexico has plenty of other potential trading partners for wheat such as Argentina, Canada and Australia.

Robert McKnight Jr., vice president of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, said any threat to the current “integrated” cattle and beef trade system between Mexico, the U.S. and Canada could also be detrimental for the Texas beef industry. Well over half of Texas’ cattle imports, he said, come from Mexico and Canada.

McKnight said international trade adds close to $300 to the value of each head of Texas cattle. “To threaten any part of that $300 for the producers would be very tough, if not devastating for us," he said.

In a recent meeting with Mexican and Canadian cattle raisers, McKnight said representatives from all three countries agreed that it doesn’t hurt to sit down and review the NAFTA agreement, but the countries should “take the scalpel instead of the hatchet” if they’re going to change.
At the consumer level, Bret Erickson, president of the Texas International Produce Association, said a tariff or trade war with Mexico would limit the variety of produce available for Texans, since Mexico is the largest supplier of fruits and vegetables to the state. Though the argument has been made that pricier Mexican goods could be offset by an increase in the production and sales of Texas-made produce, Erickson said that isn't likely.

"If the administration did institute a tariff across the board on all commodities, onions is something that I think would see a bump in production in Texas but I don't think that necessarily translates to reduced costs to the U.S. consumer," he said. "I think it just presents an opportunity for Texas producers increase their acreage and be competitive.”

Read more:

• Trump suggests large tax on Mexican imports to pay for border wall.
• Trump expanded his executive action beyond a border wall to include detention space for undocumented immigrants.

Disclosure: Texas A&M University and the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors is available here.

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/02...s-are-imposed/

Originally Posted by Beezer

So we keep our produce in the US...and Mexico can keep theirs in Mexico.

We have Wisconsin cheese. We have bison. We have fish. . .

California ranks as the top food production state for a number of crops