http://www.gazette.com/display.php?id=1311943

November 09, 2005

Education, pay will drop in state, study says


By BRIAN NEWSOME THE GAZETTE

The education level and overall earnings of Colorado workers could decline significantly in the next 15 years, according to a national report released today.

The report predicts such a decline nationwide, but Colorado ranks among the top 10 states that would undergo the most drastic changes. The drop in education and income would come mostly from a rapidly growing Hispanic population, which is also one of the least-educated and lowest-paid ethnic groups.

“It’s coming, and it’s very dramatic changes we’re talking about,� said Mikyung Ryu, a senior policy analyst for the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, the California-based nonpartisan think tank that produced the report.

The report is based on a recent study by another think tank, the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, which analyzed demographic information from the 2000 Census to make its predictions.

The center on public policy and higher education produced the report to show the need for changes, specifically in closing the achievement gap, Ryu said.

“The U.S. work force (generally ages 25 to 64) is in the midst of a sweeping demographic transformation,� the report says. It attributes the changes chiefly to a growing number of ethnic minorities among young Americans and the increase in white workers nearing retirement.

Colorado’s per capita income could drop $662, or 3 percent, by 2020 after an adjustment for inflation. The state’s per capita income increased 49 percent in the two decades before 2000.

The percentage of workingage residents in Colorado who are white is predicted to drop from 79 percent in 2000 to 70 percent by 2020. By contrast, the percentage of working-age residents who are minorities could increase to 30 percent from 21 percent. That growth is almost completely within the Hispanic population, the report says.

Thirty-nine percent of the state’s working-age Hispanics do not have high school diplomas or GEDs, compared with 6 percent of whites. Conversely, only 16 percent of workingage Hispanics have college degrees, compared with 48 percent of whites.

Based on those numbers and an assumption that the gap will not improve, Colorado’s work force will have fewer high school diplomas and college degrees and make less money, the report says. The drop in income would lower the state’s tax base.

Issues such as illegal immigration, the high price of college tuition, or access to financial aid are not addressed in the report.

“I don’t think people realize how much of a risk we all face if we don’t take the education of that segment of our population seriously,� said President Joseph Garcia of Pikes Peak Community College.

At PPCC, college officials are visiting high schools, where they are preaching a message to Hispanic students that college is an investment that leads to higher earnings, and that financial aid is available, Garcia said. He said there’s a mind-set in the Hispanic community that the sooner you start working, the better. The school is trying to change that.

PPCC and the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs join each year to hold a Hispanic youth conference that offers workshops for high school students about getting into and paying for college.

Statewide, Hispanic males are the least likely group of students to finish high school and go on to college, said Jason Hopfer, spokesman for the Colorado Commission on Higher Education. The state has started several initiatives to help change that, he said.

The state voucher system, in which a state stipend goes directly to the student to pay for the institution’s tuition, was designed partly so minority students can see that the state is helping them get an education, Hopfer said. Colorado also created a $50 million scholarship program for low-income students, he said.

Other states most affected by the potential decline in education and income include Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island and Texas.

Garcia said he hopes that the efforts to close the achievement gap in Colorado are the key to keeping the report’s predictions from coming true.

“The predictions made in the study are not a foregone conclusion. There are things we can do to change the outcome.�