Thread: Election lessons will shape 2010 campaign

Election lessons will shape 2010 campaign
Economy-focused independents shun Obama, incumbents
2 commentsby Liz Sidoti - Nov. 5, 2009 12:00 AM

WASHINGTON - What we learned from the off-year elections: The president's influence is limited, independents rule, incumbents beware, issues trump ideology and, once more, "It's the economy, stupid."

Also: Republicans can win - even if they lack a leader and their base is cracked. And this certainly isn't the Democratic-friendly political environment of 2006 and 2008 when the party captured control of Congress and the White House.

The first election day of Barack Obama's presidency was a big night for Republicans, who recaptured governorships in the swing state of Virginia and the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey.
Democrats won two races for vacant congressional seats, including one in upstate New York that had been long held by Republicans and that exposed a GOP divide.

So, what did we learn about politics, people and their priorities from the handful of races on Tuesday? And how will those lessons shape the maneuvering of Republicans and Democrats ahead of 2010 midterms, when Obama's prestige will be put to the test across the country?

The results don't seem to bode well for Obama and his party heading into a high-stakes year as they look to advance an expensive domestic agenda while protecting the Democrats' grip on House, Senate and gubernatorial seats nationwide. They'll try to win over people in a country clouded by a job-killing recession, divided over war and, as Tuesday's results showed, fed up with the powers that be - no matter the political party.

Among the lessons learned:


• Obama's political power is limited.

The broad coalition - minorities, young people, first-time voters, Republican crossovers and independents - that fueled Obama's victory was a 2008 phenomenon; it can't be counted on if the man himself is not on the ballot.

Even though Obama personally implored his supporters to turn out in droves, voters rejected incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Democratic candidate R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.

That could be a problem for Democratic lawmakers in swing states and conservative-to-moderate districts next fall because Obama won't be on the ballot to drive up turnout. Candidates carried into office on the Obama wave will be vulnerable in 2010, with no lifeguard to help. And that could influence how those lawmakers vote in Congress in the meantime, perhaps threatening the president's priorities.

With Obama unable to guarantee their political survival, what's the incentive for them to back his legislative agenda?


• Independents are kingmakers.

Voters who don't claim a political party again proved their value by propelling Republicans to victory in Virginia and New Jersey one year after carrying Obama to the White House.

Independents are, well, truly independent - and, thus, are extraordinarily fickle.

Last year, hope and change tilted them toward Democrats. This year, anger and frustration tilted them to Republicans. They broke 2-1 for GOP victors Chris Christie in New Jersey and Bob McDonnell in Virginia.

Issues, from jobs to taxes to government spending, drive this center of the electorate, so candidates who talk about what independents care most about will win the middle and, thus, elections.

Democrats must figure out a way to bring independents back into their fold, or risk huge losses next fall.

Still, Republicans must be mindful of the volatile nature of public attitudes, for independents who have moved toward the GOP since last fall could just as easily move back to the Democrats by next November.


• Incumbents beware.

This means you, Mr. President, as well as Democrats who control Congress and even Republicans in certain seats. If you're in office, voters are coming after you.

In the midst of recession, people vented their frustrations by ousting Democrats from power in New Jersey and Virginia. And Democrat Bill Owens won a House seat held for decades by Republicans in a special election in upstate New York.

Also, in New York City, independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won a third term against a little-known, poorly funded Democratic challenger. Voters generally approved of Bloomberg's job performance but resented his aggressive effort to get the city's term-limits law lifted and his spending as much as $100 million of his own money to stay in power.


• Issues trump ideology; the economy trumps all.

Voters have spoken: Issues like God, guns and gays take a back seat in a recession.

In Virginia, McDonnell proved that a socially conservative Republican can win in a Democratic-trending state if the focus is on pocketbook issues. Deeds went after McDonnell over conservative positions on so-called values issues but the Republican didn't take the bait.

In New Jersey, Christie, a moderate Republican, found success by sticking to core local issues, taxes and jobs.

Both winners de-emphasized social issues in favor of solutions for problems people were facing in their own backyards, jobs, transportation and taxes among them.


• 2006 and 2008 are gone; Republicans can win.

The warm and fuzzy feelings voters had for Democrats in back-to-back national elections are history.

George W. Bush as a political punching bag doesn't work anymore; Democrats tried to use him against Christie and failed.

And now Democrats are the incumbents facing an electorate rich with anti-incumbent sentiment.


http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... s1105.html

Any incumbent who has lied to and used and abused the American people had better know we're coming after them...no matter the political party they pretend to represent.