Estimated 230,000 people have left Juárez due to violence

By Diana Washington Valdez / El Paso Times
Posted: 09/19/2010 02:59:15 PM MDT


MEXICO IN FOCUS
Analysis on news out of Mexico

About 230,000 people have left Juárez, many of them because of the violence and insecurity, according to a study by the Autonomous University of Juarez (UACJ). About 54 percent of those went to the United States and 45 percent to El Paso.

The drug violence in Mexico is likely to continue past Felipe Calderon's term and through the next president's administration, said Samuel Logan, regional analyst for Latin America at iJET Intelligent Risk Systems in Washington.

Edgardo Buscaglia, a prominent global organized crime expert, says you can't put a deadline on the drug violence. In Colombia, the battled lasted 20 years before improvements were noted. And, unless the government adopts a different strategy, Buscaglia said Mexico will continue its path toward becoming a failed stated.

In a telephone interview, Buscaglia, who was in Berlin, alleged that a third of Mexico's politicians are compromised by organized crime, and that Calderon does not have the political support he needs to carry out a full frontal war against the cartels.

Diana Washington Valdez may be reached at dvaldez@elpasotimes.com; 546-6140.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_16112029