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    Senior Member European Knight's Avatar
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    Germany’s Worst Case Scenario: 6.4 Million Migrants

    by CHRIS TOMLINSON 18 Mar 2016

    A think tank in Germany has played out five scenarios for the migrant crisis, with the best case being 1.8 million migrants entering the country this year and the worst case 6.4 million.

    German think tank SAT from Freiburg has simulated what the flow of migrants headed to Europe might look like in several scenarios and none of them is a total halt to migration. Even if the European Union (EU) summit with Turkey succeeds they say the problem cannot be solved so easily.

    SAT calculated five scenarios for German paper Die Welt of how they expect to see the migrant crisis develop in 2016. The best case scenario would see Germany take in 1.8 million migrants by the end of the current year and at worst they could see upwards of 6.4 million new arrivals. The CEO of SAT, Thomas Arzt, told the German paper: “There is no switch that lets one merely turn off the flow of refugees.”

    The think tank believes that the governments negotiating with Turkey do not understand the scale and depth of the problem. The current negotiations, they claim, only look at a narrow part of the overall picture. The closure of migrant routes only causes new ones to form, in much the same way that water flows when it meets an obstacle. Other external factors may also cause migration from other parts of the world.

    Scenario one is where the EU is able to make a deal with Turkey at the summit. The simulation sees that in this case there would still be 2.1 million migrants heading for Germany via new routes like the Caucus countries and Poland. The agreement also hasn’t solved the primary factor for Syrian migrants: the Syrian civil war. The estimate seems high but Arzt said that you always have to plan for the worst case in anything.

    Scenario two is more optimistic and factors in the end of the current Syrian civil war. The results of 1.8 million people are slightly smaller but Arzt says that because it is likely the Balkan route would re-open if the Syrian war ended, migrants from Iraq and Afghanistan would still come.

    The third scenario sees a closed Balkan route and many migrants merely changing course and going through Italy via Albania. The Albanian army is already preparing for this and have asked neighbouring countries to help them prepare for what they see as an inevitable advance of migrants through their borders.

    Scenario four is more speculative but looks at what might happen if new conflicts arise in Africa. Nigeria especially could tilt toward civil war with the growing presence of Boko Haram and the terror threat they pose. Other African countries are in open conflict or on the verge of it like Chad, Sudan or the Congo. European Union border agency Frontex believes that this area is where many future migrants will come from. In total this scenario lists 3.7 million migrants.

    The final situation envisioned by the think tank is the worst case. It imagines all of the African conflicts, continued migration from the Middle east and central Asia, and the total opening of borders that agitator groups like “No Borders” are calling for. This would see a gigantic 6.4 million migrants in Germany by the end of 2016, far more than the Federal Republic could ever cope with and likely a recipe for civil unrest.

    Germany's Worst Case Scenario: 6.4 Million Migrants



  2. #2
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    In anything in life, "Be careful what you wish for". They were looking for an opportunity to be nice and replace some of the aging workforce. Geez....what went wrong? With a commitment to a million plus refugees, Germany is upside down with respect to handling the situation and completely redefining their social landscape. Now they are upping the numbers and suggesting that you can't turn off the switch. Once again, very scary!

    Conflicts in other countries should be handled one way going forward, "Establishing safe zones until peace and safety is restored".

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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    These stupid countries worried about "aging work forces" don't understand for some untold reason that they won't need as many workers in the future because of technology and robotics. All they're doing with migration is importing problems and aren't helping themselves at all. How could they be so smart on one hand and so stupid on the other? Maybe Merkel never worked in a factory or a business? Sort of like a lot of our leaders? So they don't know what they don't know?
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
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    They are not worried @ aging work force - but they have the people believing it though. EU is involved with the spread of islam. US has all these illegals here with the story @ needing the work force while Americans are out of work. They want to flood the populace with ignoramus mentalities so they can be manipulated. And the big businesses, they want more buyers, consumers. This is not @ helping refugees or illegals.
    Last edited by artist; 03-21-2016 at 09:31 AM.

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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    I believe you nailed it on its head, artist! It's always been hard for me to believe that these "leaders" in our country and Europe didn't know they were wrong about their claims about "aging work forces", because the numbers readily available to them show the clear-cut proportionality between technology and needing fewer workers not more. I mean I've known that from my work since the 70's so they should certainly be aware of it 40 years later.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
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    Globalists want open green spaces filled with people; they may be on the dole now (taxpayers paying for them) but they will produce more people and all will need food, clothing, soaps, etc etc - consumers. Some will eventually work, but for now the native people will pay for all their needs.

    When a quaint German hamlet of 100 people receive 500 muslim "refugees" that rape & steal, the natives are devastated but down the line they will have more consumers feeding businesses, eventually collecting taxes from those people too.

    Same in USA, take away our green areas & fill them up with housing for illegals that are overproducing like crazy and eventually the gov't will have a larger tax base & businesses more consumers. Greed & cheap labor.

    Ms magazine founded by Gloria Steinem was promoted to encourage the revolution at the time of women working FOR THE TAXES COLLECTED. The gov't acquired a whole new tax base.

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