Thread: GOP Stares Down an Immigration Divide?

November 20, 2008
Breaking News

GOP stares down immigration divide

By Reid Wilson, Arizona Capitol Times correspondent

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, South Carolina - To hear Republican pollster Whit Ayers tell it, the future of the GOP is in serious jeopardy if it can't woo more Hispanic voters to its side by moderating its position on immigration.

As the prominent numbers wizard presented his case to a gathering of Republican National Committee members, Arizona GOP chair Randy Pullen shook his head. "He's got it wrong," Pullen said.

The debate over the Republican approach to immigration reform has become increasingly crucial to the party's electoral success. And it's not one that will be decided pleasantly, or soon, as demonstrated during the election season by the divergent opinions between Washington-based consultants and local activists across the country.

Hispanics are the fastest-growing minority group in America, and Republican strategists worry the group could slip out of their party's grasp. Consultants and activists both blame hard-core rhetoric, especially that which surrounded contentious debates over immigration legislation in the summer of 2005. But while everyone agrees that the few who use demagogic language are poisoning the well, the two sides disagree on just what moderation means.

One thing is for sure: The party sports a damaged brand among Hispanic voters. In 2004, President Bush carried 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, losing the group to John Kerry by nine points. This year, exit polls showed Barack Obama beating John McCain among Hispanic voters by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent, a shockingly poor result for the Arizona senator whose name is frequently associated with a moderate approach to immigration reform. In Arizona, McCain lost Hispanic voters by a 56 percent-to-41 percent margin.

"The Hispanic vote is probably the most important swing-voter group in the American electorate over the next decade," Ayers said in an interview. While the white proportion of the electorate shrinks with the growth of African Americans and Hispanics, the GOP is losing badly among both minority groups, bringing up worries the party is destined to be pigeon-holed as the "white" party.

With what Ayers calls mega-states - California, Texas, New York and Florida, which combine for 147 electoral votes - sporting a lower proportion of white voters than the nation at large, the GOP faces a problem on a presidential level.

"Looking at the long-term demographic trends, it is difficult to see how Republicans remain competitive in the Electoral College unless they start to do significantly better among minorities," Ayers said.

"Virtually everybody believes that America should control its borders. That's true of Hispanics and non-Hispanics. The difference is what happens to the Hispanics that are currently residing in America and the tone that is used to discuss their fate," Ayers added. "It is very difficult to imagine Republicans performing competitively among Hispanic voters if prominent Republicans are demonizing Hispanics and threatening to throw 12 million of them out of the country."

Pullen agreed that the rhetoric needs to be modified. "I think there is a problem if there is a segment of people out there demagoguing on the issue, on both sides," he said. "A lot of them aren't even Republicans."

But Pullen disagrees with the contention that Hispanic voters can be won over if the GOP modifies its stance on immigration reform. "What do we gain from that (moderation)?" Pullen said. "When we pass conservative ballot issues in Arizona that Latinos vote for, the ones that are here legally understand that the people the illegal ones impact the most is" Hispanics in the U.S. legally. "I'm just so tired about hearing all these people pontificate about, ‘Oh, the Republican Party has got to change its position on immigration.' I don't think we need to change at all.

"What we need to do is to develop a core of conservative Latino leadership," he continued. "Those elected officials will attract the volunteers and the supporters that we need in the Republican Party. If we don't help Latinos get elected to office, they're never going to seriously believe we want them involved."

But the state Republican Party and its activists have long been at odds with the party's own elected leaders. Arizona GOP grassroots, along with Pullen and the other party officials they elected, sharply criticized McCain, Kyl and Flake for their roles in pushing for legislation that would have allowed illegal immigrants to earn citizenship without being deported.

The three were tagged "pro-amnesty" by critics. And Kyl, who ranks among the most conservative members of the Senate, was derided as being a liberal because of his support for McCain's bill.

U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake said: "We have to recognize that we need a comprehensive solution that deals with border security and that also deals with those who are here illegally now and deals with (them) in a rational way. You can continue to win a legislative district or even a congressional district just playing to one segment of the base given the way the lines are drawn (in Arizona).

But if you want to win statewide, "Republicans must appeal to a broader swath of voters," Flake said. "We're relegating ourselves to a minority-party statewide.

"Nobody's backing away from the border security that we need, but you just cannot continue to be all-immigration all the time," Flake said. He criticized the state GOP for deciding to "go after Jon Kyl and John McCain for trying to reach a comprehensive solution."

While anti-immigration ballot initiatives have passed statewide, "you see what the activists did in 2006," said one Republican congressional aide. "As far as candidates go, they lost all the way around."

At the gathering in Myrtle Beach, a meeting during which top Republicans blew off steam with frank post-mortems of the 2008 elections, Pullen was far from the only party chairman or committee member to express dissatisfaction with any moderation of the party's stances. It's a debate being repeated in states around the country, and it's likely to play at least some role in January's election of a new Republican National Committee chairman.

The impact the issue has on the Republican Party as a whole is playing out in Arizona as well, as legislative districts meet to elect their delegates to the state convention. While no strong challenger to Pullen has emerged, many have tested the water, according to the GOP aide.

The aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to intra-party sensitivity on the topic, wondered whether immigration, and its attending distance between the state party and the elected officials, would bring out a more centrist candidate.

The question, he said, is one of counting the votes. "Does the Pullen faction control the slates coming out of the districts or don't they?" the aide asked. "It's politics at the most basic level."

http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/story.cfm?id=9895

These GOPers that have obviously been bought off by someone are ridiculous to claim that the way to gain more Hispanic votes is to out Democrat the Democrats!

What about the majority of Hispanic voters that show in polls and actual votes in places like Florida and Arizona that they stand for enforcement instead of Amnesty.

The only reason the GOP would want to promise more goodies and amnesty for some Hispanics would be if they are counting on 12 million predominantly Hispanic illegal aliens becoming future voters.

W

Flake is wrong on this issue as usual.

I hope the pro-amnesty Republicans like Flake realize that if they amnesty 12 million + illegal aliens, this will be electoral suicide. These newer generally lower-skilled voters will predominantly and naturally move to the Democrats who would promise them all sorts of govt freebies.

Rather than playing the identity politics game of trying to increase their % of the Hispanic vote, or increase their % of the white vote (which even a slight increase would more than negate any increase of the Hispanic vote), Republicans would be best served by offering universal ideas and a conservative message (including border security and no amnesty) that appeals to ALL Americans.

Of course, this is just the political perspective. I won't get into the many reasons why another mass amnesty would be terrible public policy.

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Well they had better remember that the illegals aliens these people are speaking of are poor and uneducated, they can pander if they want but they will be doing it at their own peril......any one with half a brain knows these illegals if given citizenship are going to vote Democratic.

We are speaking of people who are looking for the free handouts or should I say the redistribution of wealth, from our hands to theirs, through more free programs, universal health care and higher taxes.

Wake up Republicans you can not win with that one, unless you plan on going so far to the left you are no longer Republican at all.

At the gathering in Myrtle Beach, a meeting during which top Republicans blew off steam with frank post-mortems of the 2008 elections, Pullen was far from the only party chairman or committee member to express dissatisfaction with any moderation of the party's stances. It's a debate being repeated in states around the country, and it's likely to play at least some role in January's election of a new Republican National Committee chairman.

Interesting. If you have the chance, call your state party's HQ and demand that they do NOT support amnesty in any way, shape, or form. As the McCain campaign showed, pledging amnesty doesn't work and only harms the GOP -- not to mention American workers.

any one with half a brain knows these illegals if given citizenship are going to vote Democratic.

Yup. Anyway, it is not worth it. I think illegal immigration is a bigger threat to this country than the financial crisis, Iranian nuclear development, Islamic Jihadists, China or Russia. I believe this because illegal immigration undermines and kills our social services safety net. Unfettered, it will bleed welfare, food stamps, and medicaid into bankruptcy. When these social support systems fail, what will the US Citizens who rely on them do? Say, "Gee. That's OK.". We've already seen how our politicians react to this type of crisis: "BAILOUT!". Only, there won't be any resources left to bail out with. We will have civil unrest that makes the 50's Civil Rights Movement and the 60's Anti-War movement look like church picnics. This country will collapse, without a shot being fired. By a foreign government, that is.

The way to get more Hispanic Americans to see the light on the illegal invasion, (many already do) is to point out how illegal immigration will kill opportunities for their children, and saddle them with more debt, and higher taxes.

If the GOP thinks that going even softer than it has, on the illegal invasion is the way to go, the base of their party will stay home in 2010, and 2012. If, on the other hand, it takes an unequivocal stand for secure borders, and against the illegal invasion, and invites more brown and black Americans, who are pro-enforcement, to speak to the issue, they will rejuvinate, and grow their base.

The Republican Party can not even fix itself but they're going to fix the U S? No way is that going to happen. Go back and read the article again. What does it say? It's all about getting votes, getting elected and gaining power. There is not much else there. There is not a word about how the Republicans are going to get these invaders out of our country. It's all about getting hispanics to run for office as Republicans and so on. In other words just change the faces and that'll work. BTW that happens to be racist in my book. Racism is not going to help the Republicans win elections. The only thing that is going to work is when the Republicans have a real plan to fix the problem that doesn't involve giving legal status because that's amnesty. Otherwise forget it. You can not win elections by compromising your country out of existence. And that's what these guys are talking about.

Whit Ayes e-mail: whit@ayresmchenry.com

If you want to tell him about the "Hispanic vote".

Originally Posted by Justthatguy

The Republican Party can not even fix itself but they're going to fix the U S? No way is that going to happen. Go back and read the article again. What does it say? It's all about getting votes, getting elected and gaining power. There is not much else there. There is not a word about how the Republicans are going to get these invaders out of our country. It's all about getting hispanics to run for office as Republicans and so on. In other words just change the faces and that'll work. BTW that happens to be racist in my book. Racism is not going to help the Republicans win elections. The only thing that is going to work is when the Republicans have a real plan to fix the problem that doesn't involve giving legal status because that's amnesty. Otherwise forget it. You can not win elections by compromising your country out of existence. And that's what these guys are talking about.

I think you're right, as far as the people quoted in the article go. The GOP is staring down an illegal immigration divide within it's own party. The operative word being illegal, and 2010 will show which way the GOP goes on that issue, among others. I do think the GOP needs to live up to it's platform, and enforce our immigration laws. I don't think getting like-minded Hispanics and blacks more in the public eye, is racist.