Sunday, August 26, 2007
Hispanic president may not be realistic in 2008
Voters, experts cite debate over illegal immigration

By ROBERT M. COOK
Staff Writer
bcook@fosters.com

John Huff/Staff photographer New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a

Article: Richardson: I have got all the same strengths as my rivals

The nation's ongoing debate over illegal immigration may make 2008 a less-than-ideal year for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to run for the presidency.

The immigration debate has focused mostly around Hispanics along the nation's southwestern border, and Richardson's Hispanic roots may not help him, some voters and political experts say.

"Unfortunately, the country probably wouldn't" elect a Hispanic candidate, Scott Smith of Dover said. "There's parts of the country where he's just not going to get the vote because of his ethnicity."

Smith said he supports U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who will face similar challenges because he, like Richardson, is of mixed racial origin. But, he added, the immigration debate may make it harder for Richardson than Obama, who is black.

Marcia Haughey of Laconia agreed voters' feelings on immigration would harm Richardson's chances.

"I think there are too many issues about borders and immigration, too much tension," she said.

David Bositis, a senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C., said he also thinks Richardson will have a tough time convincing voters he could fix immigration problems.

It may behoove Richardson to play down the fact that he's half Mexican on his mother's side where illegal immigration is a sensitive issue, Bositis said. But, he added, Richardson could also use his heritage to reach out to Hispanic voters.

But, Bositis said, if Richardson tries to do both at the same time, that could hurt his credibility.

U.S. Census data released this month shows Hispanics have been the fastest-growing segment in the U.S. population since 2000, Ken Johnson, a University of New Hampshire professor with the Carsey Institute, has said in a statement.

"Hispanics represented 12.5 percent of the U.S. population in 2000. Yet from 2000 to 2005, Hispanics contributed 49 percent of all the population growth in the country and 47 percent of all the natural increase," according to Johnson.

However, Bositis said, one-third of the Hispanics in the U.S. aren't U.S. citizens and can't vote.

Richardson on Friday was en route to Peterborough, Jaffrey and Keene. In a phone interview, he said he's proud to be Hispanic, but doesn't want voters to see him as a "Hispanic" candidate.

"What I am trying to emphasize is that is not a centerpiece of my campaign," he said. "I tell Hispanic voters, 'Don't vote for me because I'm Hispanic. Vote for me because I have the best policies.'"

Voters in states with many undocumented workers, such as California, Florida and Texas, have complained that poor illegals are overwhelming public schools, clogging emergency rooms and bankrupting welfare budgets. They and the federal Department of Homeland Security also have said inadequate border security makes it easy for would-be terrorists to sneak into the country.

All 50 states and more than 75 towns and cities either considered or enacted immigration restrictions after the U.S. Senate voted against President Bush's immigration reform plan in June.

Richardson said he's often asked about his immigration reform stance since he's half Hispanic and governs a border state.

"I try to keep it very balanced," he said.

The nation needs a dual strategy in which it should double its U.S. Border Patrol agents and keep using National Guard troops to secure the border, he said. He also said he favors using more technology to detect terrorists and "dirty bombs," which use nuclear material.

He said employers who hire illegal immigrants also should be punished. But he said he doesn't favor deportation for the estimated 12 million immigrants already in the United States. He said he would support a program in which they'd have to earn the right to stay in the U.S., but not get automatic citizenship.

If the U.S. could build a stronger relationship with Mexico, that also would help, he said.

If the Mexicans could create better jobs for their people, he said, "they would not be so eager to hand off their poor to us."

Angela Kelley, a spokeswoman for the National Immigration Forum in Washington, D.C., a pro-immigrant advocacy group, said Richardson has used a balanced approach on illegal immigration in his state. She added that Richardson, given his roots, can understand the issue from both sides, unlike the Bush administration, which favors just "throwing more boots or binoculars at the problem."

Some voters say they're ready to accept a Hispanic president.

Alicia Garneau of Lebanon, Maine, said Richardson could deal with illegal immigration as well as anyone else.

"I think that it would be good to have a Hispanic president because America has a lot of different kinds of people in it, and having a Hispanic president would just broaden the views of America," she said.

Peter Somssich of Portsmouth, the city's Democratic Committee chairman, also said Richardson's heritage shouldn't be a problem.

Richardson has a lot of foreign relations and domestic issues experience, Somssich said. Besides serving as New Mexico's governor, Richardson also has served as a United Nations ambassador and head of the U.S. Department of Energy, both during the Clinton administration.

Richardson in the latest UNHSurvey Center poll was 10 percentage points behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who had 25 percent. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton led with 33 percent.

More than 330 randomly selected New Hampshire Democratic voters were interviewed by phone between July 9 to July 17. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

"Bill Richardson is making significant inroads among highly educated voters who have trended toward Obama nationally," said Dante Scala, a UNH Political Science professor.

Richardson has gained ground in Iowa, according to a Washington Post and ABC News poll of 500 Iowan voters likely to vote in the Iowa Caucuses. The poll was conducted by telephone between July 26 to July 31 and had a 4-percentage-point margin of error.

The poll put Richardson, with 11 percent support, behind Obama and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who were tied with 26 percent. Clinton had 27 percent.

Scala said Richardson has campaigned well in New Hampshire and continues to do well as a "dark horse" candidate.

"I like that role. I like to be the underdog, and I don't want to peak too soon," Richardson said.

Scala said he doesn't believe Richardson's Hispanic ethnicity will hurt him because he believes not that many voters even realize he's Hispanic.

But, he said, Richardson will have a tough time keeping up with Clinton and Obama.

Robert M. Cook can be reached by calling 742-4455, ext. 5396 or via e-mail at bcookfosters.com.

http://www.citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar ... -1/CITIZEN