Illegals key issue in GOP primary
Friday, January 18, 2008
By James O'Toole, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- While former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Tennessee Sen. Fred D. Thompson have their differences, a common element in their South Carolina stump speeches is a jocular expression of gratitude for an audience that doesn't think they talk funny.

But other accents are at the root of an incendiary issue in South Carolina politics and an enduring undercurrent in the Republican presidential primary.

"Immigration is a tremendous issue here in the state, especially in smaller communities in the more conservative parts of the state," said University of South Carolina-Aiken history professor Elaine Lacy, an expert on southern immigrations patterns. "The average person sees this as a threat, a real threat to change the culture."

In his State of the State address Wednesday night, Gov. Mark Sanford cited immigration reform as a chief priority for the next session of the state Legislature.

"A real immigration standard matters in the larger theme of quality of life," he told state lawmakers. "The federal government will ultimately determine what happens here, but given their inaction, we need to pass [a] reform bill requiring more businesses to document the citizenship status of their workers. It is not a cure-all, but it is a meaningful step forward, and I'd ask we also do this in the next 30 days."

Proponents of the measure, call it a common-sense reform.

"I think the bottom line for most South Carolinians is that illegal immigration is -- by definition -- illegal, and people want to address that," said state Sen. John Courson, a supporter of the measure, and also a backer of Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Already, four South Carolina counties have enacted local laws designed to crack down on illegal immigrants. The perception in this state, as in many parts of the nation, is that the issue they address is widespread.

Nationally, most experts put the illegal-immigrant population in the very rough neighborhood of 12 million. In South Carolina, however, there is no firm count of illegal immigrants. In a state of 4 million, 2006 census numbers estimated the overall Latino population, legal and undocumented, at roughly 150,000, with the greatest concentration of Hispanic residents in the state's western part and southeast corner, along the coast from Charleston to Hilton Head.

Reflecting its changing market, Charleston now has two low-power Spanish-language television stations. Mexican and other Latino immigrants are common in construction and agricultural employment across the state.

The divisions on the issue were exemplified by the positions of the state's two U.S. senators in the Senate debate last year over the failed immigration bill. Republican Sen. Jim DeMint is an outspoken foe of the bill and of efforts to offer a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Mr. DeMint, a supporter of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, denounced the measure as "amnesty," as he appeared Wednesday with Mr. Romney in Columbia.

His colleague, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, was a supporter of the failed measure and also of Mr. McCain. Mr. McCain, who is battling for votes in tomorrow's GOP primary, was a key co-sponsor. Mr. Graham acknowledges that their advocacy for the bill has hurt him personally among his constituents as well as his favored presidential choice in his home state.

Mr. McCain says he has learned the lesson of the public rejection of the plan. He now favors tightening border security as a first step to immigration reform, but he has not rejected the possibility of some compromise that would still map out a path to citizenship for current illegal immigrants.

Mr. McCain's presidential campaign nearly crashed and burned last summer, the victim of improvident internal spending but also of the impact of the immigration debate. His resurgence -- even in a state acutely concerned about immigration -- is a measure not only of how his rhetoric on the issue has changed, but also of how other issues, notably the economy, are competing with immigration in voters' minds.

"If you look at the different candidates' positions, they're pretty similar, except for John McCain," said Bill Moore, a College of Charleston political science professor.

David Woodard, who directs a Clemson University poll that found Mr. McCain ahead of his Republican rivals in South Carolina, said the Arizona senator could ride out the immigration storm because voters are concerned about other issues -- notably, the economy and national security. "The fallout of that fight is still here today," he said. "Without it, McCain would be doing even better."

John Zogby, whose polling organization's most recent South Carolina survey showed Mr. McCain with a narrow lead, said immigration remains an intense issue because "voters will actually [decide their] vote on it. ... But, at least as of the moment, it doesn't appear to be the dominating issue."

Mr. McCain reflected that reality yesterday, as he unveiled a plan to stimulate the economy in the face of recession fears. His new emphasis on that issue comes after a Michigan primary in which his second-place showing behind Mr. Romney was attributed in part to voter perceptions that the former governor was speaking more directly to voters' economic anxieties.

The immigration issue isn't likely to go away anytime soon, however. Mr. Huckabee's campaign day Wednesday was highlighted by an appearance in Greenville, in which he signed a hardline pledge forswearing any path toward citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Mr. Thompson, who has criticized both Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee on the immigration issue, repeatedly tells audiences, "A nation that cannot defend its borders will not remain a sovereign nation."

While surveys, including Mr. Zogby's own, continue to show a tight race for the lead in South Carolina between Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee, the pollster thinks the Arizona senator may have survived the immigration cloud.

"It looks as though a combination of things are helping McCain," Mr. Zogby said. "One is that the anti-illegal immigration position is spread out among the other candidates. Second, Republicans seem to be looking beyond stands on immigration. The fact is that McCain gets very high marks for experience, leadership and for his biography."

Yet Mr. Zogby noted, "If McCain goes down in South Carolina, I would say that immigration would be one of the reasons."
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