Immigrant Debate Shakes Up 2008 GOP Race

July 12, 2007
Billy House -- Tampa Tribune
Rudy Giuliani, here campaigning in N.H., says he has been consistent with his immigration message.
WASHINGTON -- Candidates along the 2008 road to the White House are finding it not so easy to do what the U.S. Senate has done -- put off debate on immigration.

"It is the number one or two question being asked at campaign events," said Elliott Bundy, a spokesman for Republican Rudolph Giuliani, the former New York mayor.

Analysts predict that questions about their immigration views will dog presidential hopefuls throughout the 2008 campaign alongside other top issues such as the war and health care, fueled in part because Congress has failed to act.

The topic already has produced a mix of nuanced and shifting candidate positions, rhetoric and results, particularly among top GOP aspirants.

The reason: Harder-line positions that may help candidates win over core Republican activists and the GOP nomination can later spell doom in a general election, where Hispanics are increasingly key, said Lee Miringoff, of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.

"The biggest impact so far has been in the Republican primary" race, where Arizona Sen. John McCain has "really tanked on this issue," said Larry Harris, a public opinion expert with Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

McCain, amid criticism from his early top GOP rivals Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, has been unwavering in his advocacy of the comprehensive immigration bill he sponsored with Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy and others.

That measure, also co-written by Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida, would have provided noncriminal illegal immigrants a way to gain citizenship if they paid fines and took other steps.

Many within the GOP's active conservative base -- amplified by talk radio commentators -- derided the bill as "amnesty" for the nation's estimated 12 million undocumented residents.

The Democratic-controlled Senate, lacking enough bipartisan support even with the backing of President Bush, last month dropped its effort to move ahead with the legislation.

McCain's close association with that bill, combined with his out-front support for an unpopular war, have caused the Arizonan's poll numbers among Republicans to collapse, his fund-raising to suffer, and forced a top-down restructuring of his campaign, Harris said.

Giuliani Says Stance Consistent

Meanwhile, Giuliani and Romney, who make a point of reminding Republican voters of McCain's role with the immigration bill, haven't necessarily been consistent or clear on their stance.

During a GOP presidential debate last month at St. Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., Giuliani called the immigration legislation co-sponsored by McCain "a typical Washington mess."

Giuliani also has said: "If we do the kinds of things that some of the [other GOP candidates] are talking about, this country's going to be in greater danger; it is going to be more insecure..."

A decade ago, as New York City's mayor before the Sept. 11 attacks, Giuliani often defended illegal immigrants -- and even fought federal laws requiring city employees to turn in illegal immigrants who seek benefits.

Today, Giuliani promises on his campaign Web site: "I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation."

Yet, in a nod to his mayoral positions, Giuliani also has called for allowing "people who are working in this country" to "come forward, sign up for the tamper-proof ID card, get in the database and start paying their way." He also has explained that illegal immigrants should face penalties and be put at the back of the line for citizenship.

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