Thread: The latest Dem concern: Boycott Arizona Raul Grijalva

The latest Dem concern: Raul Grijalva

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Raul Grijalva's aides have made it clear that they believe they have a real contest on their hands. | AP Photo

By JONATHAN ALLEN & SCOTT WONG | 10/9/10 7:10 PM EDT

Add Rep. Raul Grijalva to the growing list of Democratic worries this election season.

Party operatives say there's increasing concern that the Arizona Democrat's reelection bid could turn into a "sleeper" race for Republicans after Grijalva — responding to enactment of a tough new immigration law — called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment.

Four Democratic sources from different parts of the country said that there is new attention to a race that was long considered in the bag.

And a recent poll, obtained by POLITICO, found that Grijalva and Republican challenger Ruth McClung, a real-life rocket scientist, were in a dead heat, even though Washington prognosticators have declared the deep-blue seat safely Democratic. http://www.politico.com/static/PPM136_1 ... _poll.html

As they work to buttress their majority against a coming Republican storm, Democrats can ill afford to spend time or resources defending incumbents in seats where they should have a clear advantage. But the Grijalva seat potentially being in play is a sign of the increasingly expanding Republican playing field for the midterm elections.

One Democratic source familiar with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said there are "whispers" about the Grijalva-McClung matchup "being a sleeper race."

The source went on to note that at a recent CHC meeting focused on whether to give money to vulnerable Reps. John Salazar (D-Colo.), Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas) and others, Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) made a strong push for CHC to donate to Grijalva's campaign.

CHC's Building Our Leadership's Diversity PAC "doesn't normally give unless a candidate really needs it," the source said. "[Grijalva] made a major misstep in calling for a boycott of his own state. He should win, though. But anything is possible this year, especially in Arizona where the Republicans and anti-incumbents are apparently very fired up."

BOLD PAC doled out $5,000 to Grijalva on Sept. 29, just before the close of the third quarter. As of his last accounting in early August, Grijalva had less than $80,000 in his treasury. McClung had less than $20,000 at last check.

A recent poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies found that among likely voters Grijalva is leading McClung 40 percent to 38 percent, well within the margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. Thirteen percent of those surveyed were undecided, while 9 percent backed other candidates.

Those results may or may not be an accurate reflection of the state of the campaign. Colorado-based Magellan serves mostly Republican clients and the poll of 686 likely voters on Sept. 29 was an automated telephone poll, generally considered less reliable than those conducted by live callers.

Magellan CEO David Flaherty said his firm was hired by a "private client" and did not conduct the poll for any of the candidates' campaigns.

Southwestern Arizona's sprawling House District 7, more than half of whose residents are Hispanic, stretches along 300 miles of the Arizona-Mexico border. It takes in Yuma, parts of Tucson and some Phoenix suburbs.

There are nearly twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans in the district. In 2008, Grijalva, co-chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, routed GOP challenger Joseph Sweeney 63 percent to 33 percent.

But Grijalva's aides have made clear to members of the Progressive Caucus that they believe they have a real contest on their hands, even as they express confidence they will prevail.

In the past month, conservative pundits have been chattering in blogs and on TV that McClung has closed the gap. http://sonoranalliance.com/2010/09/19/r ... n-az-cd-7/

“I still believe Grijalva will pull this out and remain an Arizona congressman, but the very fact that he is having to work very hard and his folks are concerned demonstrates the Republican tidal wave that is sweeping not only nation but the state of Arizona this election season,â€

"We need jobs. We don't need a hurtful boycott of our state as my opponent demands," McClung, a Tucson resident, said in a recent ad. "He boycotted us — his own state, his own people."

And there is the rub! He doesn't consider Americans "his own people, his loyalty lies with illegal invaders. Time and again he has defended them, time and again he's pushed for shamnesty. AZ. vote this jerk OUT! He deserves to be in the unemployment line, actually he deserves to be in Messico...

To date, Grijalva hasn't yet run one TV ad here in Tucson, at least on English language TV. McClung is running ads.

Thery were in two "debate forums" tonight. Grijjalva called SB 1070 "an obamination." I knew he was spitting bullets mad when the law was signed.