Native French Population on Pace to Become Minority by 2050 if Mass Migration Continues: Report



Joel Saget / AFP via Getty Images

by Kurt Zindulka 23 Sep 2026

The French people face the prospect of becoming a minority in their own homeland by as early as the middle of the century, should the political establishment in Paris continue to embark upon its mass migration agenda, a leading think tank has warned.

The report from the Paris-based Immigration and Demography Observatory (OID), initially published in Le Figaro, attempted to forecast the future demographics of the French nation in the coming decades under different immigration policies. The OID acknowledged that this task is a “complex exercise” and has significant “difficulties”, including the imperfect data on migration flows and fertility collected by the French government, not to mention the unpredictability of the future.

Nevertheless, the report gave three potential outcomes based on publicly available figures from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies and the French Institute for Demographic Studies, including under the “high scenario” in which immigration remains at the same level. Under this scenario, the OID estimated that France would see an influx of 500,000 migrants per year, of whom 350,000 would ultimately become permanent residents.

Should this occur, the think tank predicted that people of non-European origin — defined as people either immigrants from non-European countries, or the child or grandchild of such immigrants — would represent the majority of births after 2040, and continue to grow in number until around 2070 when they would plateau around 65 per cent of births before starting to decline slightly.

For the overall population, the report forecast that people of non-European origin would become the majority in France by the mid-2070s. Meanwhile, those without a migration background — defined as non-migrants, and those whose parents and grandparents were born in France — would become a minority by around 2050.

The think tank noted that even though this outcome was classified as its most extreme, given their self-imposed three-generation limit, the increasing level of migratory flows, the declining birth rate among women born in France, and the rising birth rate of women from sub-Saharan Africa, they believe this was a “very conservative” prediction and “likely underestimates the projected proportion of immigrants and their descendants within the population.”

Under their “intermediate scenario” in which there is a moderate decrease in migration flows into France, with an assumed 250,000 permanent entries per year, the report still estimated that non-European immigration origin people over three generations would represent the majority of births after 2050 and stabilise at around 55 per cent of births by around 2080. Meanwhile, people without a migration background would still become a minority by around 2060, and people with a non-European migration background would become the majority by the 2090s.

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The report’s most restrictive scenario predicted that if immigration was a quarter of the intermediate — or around 62,500 permanent entries per year — births among people of non-European origin would reach around 35 per cent in 2050, while the share of three-generation, non-European-origin people would stabilise at around 30 per cent in 2070.

Commenting on the report, co-founder of the Observatory of Immigration and Demography, Nicolas Pouvreau-Monti, told Le Figaro: “France’s demographic trajectory is not predetermined. The main factor that will determine it will undoubtedly be our immigration policy in the coming years.”

The OID director added that the restrictive scenario outlined in the report “has no chance of occurring ‘naturally,’ given the attractiveness of living conditions in Europe, the population growth in certain countries of origin, and the legal protection afforded by the courts of very broad migration channels, which have become “rightful” (such as asylum or family reunification).”

“Its realisation implies a drastic and proactive reduction in migration flows, which can only result from strong political choices, including a revision of the constitutional and European framework.”

The report’s predictions are similar to those made by Professor Matt Goodwin in the United Kingdom in a report last year, which predicted that the native British population would become a minority in the UK by 2063 and cut to one fifth of the population by the end of the century should mass migration continue.

Immigration is set to play a major role in the upcoming presidential elections in 2027, which will see President Emmanuel Macron, a proponent of mass migration, prevented from running due to term limits in the French constitution.

At present, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen is leading the field of prospective candidates, largely because of her proposed restrictions on immigration. Le Pen and her party have called for a national referendum to be held on immigration, which would allow the public to make their voices heard on issues such as ending birthright citizenship, ending family reunification chain migration, the mass deportations of criminals and illegals, and instituting a national preference for French citizens when handing out benefits such as social housing.

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