Thread: NC: Immigrant tide may be turning

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Immigrant tide may be turning
Illegal aliens seem fewer as jobs dry up, law cracks down
Kristin Collins and Lorenzo Perez, Staff Writers
November 23, 2008

North Carolina's decade-long influx of illegal immigrants may be waning as the economy falters and law officers crack down.
Fewer migrants are crossing the nation's southern border, U.S. and Mexican officials say. And some of those who had made homes in North Carolina are returning to their home countries -- pushed by unemployment, the loss of driver's licenses or the deportation of family members.

"There is no work here," said Jose Ramirez, 40, who visited the Mexican consulate in Raleigh this week to make sure his passport was in order. He said he hasn't found a job in two months and, after four years working in construction and restaurants, most recently in Wilmington, he was planning to return to his home in Veracruz. "When I was working in restaurants, I was sometimes able to send home $800 a month," he said. "But there is no work left."

For North Carolina, there are not yet enough data to show whether the immigrant population is shrinking. Census figures that could shed more light are not yet available.

But local and national indicators strongly suggest that the rate of growth of illegal immigrants has at least slowed considerably.

In a study released this fall, the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington estimated the U.S. illegal immigrant population at 11.9 million in March 2008, down from 12.4 million in 2007. The study's authors cautioned that the dip was within the margin of error, but they said there is evidence of a sharp slowing in population growth.

Another Washington research group, the Center for Immigration Studies, found a similar decline.

The Mexican government said last week that the number of its citizens who left to live abroad this year was down more than 40 percent since 2006. The U.S. Border Patrol said it caught 18 percent fewer immigrants trying to cross the border in the fiscal year that ended in September. And money sent home by Mexicans living in the United States has dropped significantly in the past few months, Mexican officials say.

In North Carolina, sheriff's departments have helped deport more than 3,000 illegal immigrants this year. The Mexican consulate in Raleigh has seen a surge in Mexican citizens applying for passports and seeking to secure dual citizenship for U.S.-born children -- both steps that would ease a return to Mexico.

The N.C. Department of Public Instruction released figures Friday showing that the number of Hispanic students grew by less than 9,000 this year in North Carolina. For each of the past four years, Hispanic enrollment had grown by more than 13,000.

Jobs hard to find

Freddy Garcia of Raleigh recently saw his brother-in-law deported to Mexico after he was pulled over for speeding. And last week, Garcia said, the man's wife and children reluctantly followed, selling all their possessions and giving up their hopes of buying a home in North Carolina.

Garcia, 28, is supporting his wife and three young children by working two jobs, one on an asbestos removal crew and another in a restaurant. But he said he is worried about the future and is also planning a return to Mexico.

"The situation here has gotten difficult, and the jobs are harder to come by," he said. "Things are getting ugly."

Garcia said he will send his wife and children, two of whom are U.S.-born, back to Mexico within the next six months. He will follow soon after.

Miguel Munoz, a Durham lawyer, said several Hispanic clients who have lived in North Carolina for years told him they plan to go home for Christmas and won't be coming back.

He said some of his clients no longer have driver's licenses -- a change in state law makes it impossible for illegal immigrants to renew them -- and they are afraid of law enforcement programs that allow officers to check immigration status.

"Especially with the economy, they are bombarded with all kinds of things," Munoz said. "They tell me, 'I don't think it's worth it to be taken to jail.' "

Luis Rivas, pastor of a Raleigh church that serves Hispanics, said five families from his church have returned to Mexico, Venezuela and Honduras this year. Without driver's licenses, many of them could not find jobs.

Illegal immigrants are ineligible for unemployment and welfare benefits and, when they lose their income, many have few reserves to draw on. In their home countries, most at least have family homes or farms.

"People are hoping the economy revs up again, and they will try to wait as long as they can," Rivas said. "But when they can't hold out any longer, they'll leave."

Crackdowns

There are indicators that times are hard for illegal immigrants, who tend to work in industries affected by the economic downturn, such as construction, restaurants and hotels. Workplace immigration crackdowns have pushed employers such as the Smithfield Foods slaughterhouse in Bladen County to purge workers who cannot prove legal residence.

Catholic Charities of Raleigh opened a new food pantry and Hispanic family center last week, saying that the number of people asking for help with food has increased by 30 percent this year.

Some businesses that cater to Hispanics, such as grocer Compare Foods, say their business is down significantly -- though they don't know whether their customers are moving away or simply reining in spending.

The Rev. Carlos Arce, the vicar for Hispanics in the Catholic Diocese of Raleigh, recently left a parish in Robeson County, where he served employees of the Smithfield Foods slaughterhouse that federal immigration agents raided twice last year.

He said some of his parishioners, who had lived in North Carolina for more than a decade, left after the raids because they were too afraid to work.

"They prefer to go back and know that they are with their children," Arce said, "and not take the risk of going to work and not knowing if they'll come home."

Too early to say?

Others caution not to draw conclusions from spotty reports of immigrants leaving the country. They say the illegal immigrant population is always churning with departures and arrivals, and it's too soon to say whether they are leaving in droves or whether current trends will continue.

Michelle Mittelstadt, of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, said her group is studying the issue. "Certainly there are individuals returning home," she said. "Is there a major exodus? To this point, we haven't seen it."

Some advocates say that, for most immigrants, conditions in the United States are still better than those in their home countries, where they face extreme poverty, a lack of medical care and fewer educational opportunities for their children, many of whom are U.S. citizens.

"As bad as it gets here, it's not going to be worse than the internal strife of these Latin American countries," said Irene Godinez, advocacy director for the statewide group El Pueblo.

Godinez said that she knew a few immigrants who left last year because of the strict enforcement climate. But overall, she said, North Carolina's economy is stronger than much of the nation's, and many immigrants have hope that a new president will give them a chance at gaining legal residency through immigration reform.

Carlos Gonzalez, 21, arrived in Raleigh from the Mexican state of Queretaro nine months ago and said he has no plans to leave. He lives with friends and has steady work painting houses, making an income that is unimaginable in Mexico.

He avoids driving because he doesn't want "to get pulled over and get in trouble," but otherwise he says he feels secure in his newly adopted home.

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1306223.html

With unemployment hitting 7% in NC this is good news! Even if it comes from the reporter I love to hate...LOL!

The N.C. Department of Public Instruction released figures Friday showing that the number of Hispanic students grew by less than 9,000 this year in North Carolina. For each of the past four years, Hispanic enrollment had grown by more than 13,000. <<<< I see NO lessening here. In my neighborhood 9 out of 10 kids getting on the bus are Hispanic! When out playing in the afternoon I RARELY hear ANY English. I SO resent my tax dollars going to pay for THEIR education when I know Mommy and Daddy are contributing nothing!


"The situation here has gotten difficult, and the jobs are harder to come by," he said. "Things are getting ugly."<<<<< Welcome to an American's world! You have taken over many many jobs here! Roofing? You rarely see an American doing this anymore! Landscaping? Forget about it!


He said some of his clients no longer have driver's licenses -- a change in state law makes it impossible for illegal immigrants to renew them -- and they are afraid of law enforcement programs that allow officers to check immigration status. <<<<< ONE of the best things to happen here!


Others caution not to draw conclusions from spotty reports of immigrants leaving the country. They say the illegal immigrant population is always churning with departures and arrivals, and it's too soon to say whether they are leaving in droves or whether current trends will continue. <<<< This is oh so true! I have witnessed my neighbors giving up one house to move in with another member of their family. Some of the homes around here are 2 or 3 bedroom homes, but now have 4 Adults and 10 kids living there!

Only 9,000 new Hispanic students? We know most of them coming in are illegal according to the Census data.

At 'only' 9,000 new students last year that is an extra 15 schools we need! The average school size in NC is 583 students. I'm not sure what the average cost of one of these news schools is but 15-20 extra schools needed per year just due to growth in Hispanic students alone?

Imagine the price tag on that!

W

http://www.wakegov.com/cfac/report/default.htm

At its August 2006 meeting, the Citizens' Facilities Advisory Committee engaged DeJong, Inc., with Summit Consulting Services, LLC, to conduct a construction cost analysis for the Wake County Public School System and seven other districts from within North Carolina and outside North Carolina with comparable population growth and demographics.

The following school districts participated in the study:

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools, Charlotte, N.C.
Clark County Public Schools, Las Vegas, Nev.
Fairfax County Public Schools, Falls Church, Va.
Guilford County Schools, Greensboro, N.C.
Gwinnett County Public Schools, Suwanee, Ga.
Orange County Public Schools, Orlando, Fla.
Wake County Public Schools, Raleigh, N.C.
Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools, Winston-Salem, N.C.
The study reviewed new school construction costs

The CFAC studied the initial report, released in January 2007, at its February and March meetings and indicated they wanted additional information included in the report, such as cost-per-student calculations and design capacities and square footages of the schools included in the cost-comparison portion of the study.

The construction-cost study shows the Wake County Public School System’s total project cost per square foot is higher than average for its elementary and high schools, and slightly lower than average for middle schools, when compared with similar school districts nationally.

Additionally, building-only costs were higher than average in Wake County for elementary, middle and high schools. Site-development costs per square foot were also higher than average for elementary ($30.10) and high schools ($29.24), but lower than average for middle schools ($14). The middle schools included in the study shared sites with elementary schools, which reduced their site development costs.

The updated study also shows higher construction costs per student; WCPSS had the highest cost per student for elementary, and the second highest cost per student for middle and high schools. However, design capacity is an area that is changing in Wake County, according to the study. Capacity in WCPSS schools built between 2000 and 2006 was below average in the number of students per school for elementary, middle and high schools. However, based on the latest planning assumptions, WCPSS aims to build schools that have approximately the same capacity as the other districts in the study:

WCPSS Future Schools

Slightly below the average capacity for elementary schools (72 fewer students)
Slightly above the average capacity for middle schools (34 more students)
Slightly above the average capacity for high schools (7 more students)
The updated report, in PDF format, is available here: Cost Analysis Report (.pdf)

There is a PDF appendix to the report, totaling approximately 350 pages. Due to the size of the file, we are unable to post the appendix to the CFAC Web page at this time. Requests for the appendix, on CD, can be made by calling 919-856-5480.

graph at link

Two very important points to recognize:

"People are hoping the economy revs up again, and they will try to wait as long as they can," Rivas said. "But when they can't hold out any longer, they'll leave."

Godinez said that she knew a few immigrants who left last year because of the strict enforcement climate. But overall, she said, North Carolina's economy is stronger than much of the nation's, and many immigrants have hope that a new president will give them a chance at gaining legal residency through immigration reform.

In response to nomas statement:

I have witnessed my neighbors giving up one house to move in with another member of their family. Some of the homes around here are 2 or 3 bedroom homes, but now have 4 Adults and 10 kids living there!

That problem can be effectively attacked if you live within the jurisdiction of a municipality. Most cities, towns, and incorporated villages (and even some counties perhaps) have explicit housing and sanitation codes which prohibit such practices in single family dwellings. Some ordinances were originally executed to prohibit the insurgence of so-called "flop houses" as early as the turn of the last century.

Apply pressure directly to the governing body under which these infractions appear to fall and do so in a very public way in order to make it a matter of public record. City Council meetings and Board of Commissioners meeting are a good approach, and take a copy of the ordinace with you for reference. Be sure to follow-up in writing and if you are ignored speak to the local papers and civic organizations.

Remember, such activitiy is a detriment to the entire community and destroys local property values. It is also unsanitary and fails compliance with public health ordinances. Those two points alone should encourage others to rally to your cause. If necessary, present the governing body with statistics from other areas that have been negatively impacted by such activity. A few before and after photos from some of your ALIPAC friends neighborhoods would be very helpful!