Thread: NCT LOCAL STORY : IMMIGRATION DEBATE NEEDS BETTER DATA

Immigration debate needs better data

By: North County Times Opinion staff -

The following editorial has been edited since a shorter version was published in print Friday morning.

Our view: Inflated hit-and-run numbers don't help us make informed decisions

Escondido Police Chief Jim Maher said some very important things in City Hall on Wednesday night, but one significant statement was lost in the shuffle. Sure, the headlines focused on his description of the department's evolving policy toward enforcing federal immigration laws. Without question, Maher's deft search for a middle ground in the increasingly volatile immigration crossfire was the news of the day.

But overlooked was Maher's admission that his department had contributed to the confusion over what has become an incendiary crime statistic: the number of hit-and-runs in Escondido, and how many are caused by illegal immigrants. This deserves a bit more attention.


On Wednesday, Maher put the number of hit-and-runs in Escondido at about 650 per year. On Thursday, the Escondido Police Department's Crime Analysis Unit provided harder numbers, each just below a four-year average: 641 hit-and-run accidents reported in 2006, including 107 that caused injuries and the Dec. 11 hit-and-run slaying of Gaspar Diego Gonzalez on Valley Parkway. Escondido's police deserve great credit for quickly arresting a suspect in the latter case.

Certainly, 641 hit-and-runs in one year is too many for any city. Anyone who has ever left the house in the morning only to find a crumpled fender, or worse, knows that. Anyone who has ever been struck, or watched a loved one hurt or killed, and then watched the craven culprit speed away, can attest that even one hit-and-run incident threatens our collective security.

But for months, Escondido's police department has been spreading apparently false information about the incidence of hit-and-runs. And we have failed to correct them, until now.

The press releases the city has issued after conducting driver's license checkpoints have begun with these eye-catching sentences: "There are approximately 900 Hit and Run traffic accidents reported each year to the Escondido Police Department. Investigation shows that the majority of those are caused by unlicensed drivers."

The first sentence is, based on the department's own statistics, a significant overstatement ---- approximately a 38 percent inflation. We're still waiting to hear where the second assertion came from.

The 900 number has circulated widely online and on our letters page. It has been swept up by those who blame all of Escondido's woes on illegal immigrants, a seemingly hard fact illustrating the growing menace to Escondido's safety and order. But this hard fact is quickly dissolved with the slightest scrutiny.

A lot of people have been trying to figure out what's causing a statewide rise in hit-and-runs. Unlicensed drivers ---- drivers who have never had licenses, including California's vast population of illegal immigrants ---- constitute a significant part of that number, though just how much is a subject of debate.

What's certain is that lacking legal citizenship is not the only reason a driver will flee the scene of an accident. Other factors include the increasingly strict penalties for drunken driving, which even Mothers Against Drunk Driving fears inadvertently adds incentive for drivers to flee; and the high cost of auto insurance, which keeps more drivers on the road illegally and causes others to shirk their responsibility and hit the gas after an accident.

This is not to excuse anyone who flees. We must bring them to justice. But to take the number of hit-and-run accidents ---- especially the more accurate number of 650 per year in Escondido ---- as a proxy for the threat posed by illegal immigrants on our roads is worse than hyperbole. It's propaganda.

For our part, we apologize for not getting it right; our reporting hasn't been up to snuff in this critical area.

Why is this so critical? Because the cauldron that the debate over illegal immigration has become boils over with inflated numbers and wild overstatements. Look no further than Escondido Councilman Sam Abed, who has lately led the charge to enlist the city's police force in federal immigration-law enforcement. Abed is fond of saying that one-fourth of Escondido's residents are illegal immigrants, though he acknowledges that his is a rough extrapolation of U.S. Census data estimating the population in neighboring Vista that is ineligible to vote. Abed's estimate is hotly contested by other folks who make their living in demography.

Before we can talk sensibly about the impact of illegal immigration on our lives ---- and long before we divert millions of dollars in tax-funded resources toward ill-advised solutions ---- we need good data. Insist upon it ---- from us, from the Escondido Police Department, and from the folks who would convince you that illegal immigration is/isn't to blame for our problems

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/03 ... ogcomments

Comments On This Story

El Guero wrote on March 09, 2007 4:47 AM:"'For our part, we apologize for not getting it right; our reporting hasn't been up to snuff in this critical area.' Quite an admission from a sanctimonious group of scribblers. Could it be the start of a 12-step program to overcome your immigration denial?"

C. Jones wrote on March 09, 2007 8:24 AM:"As a 56 year old American who has been reading newspapers as long as I could read, I must commend the North County Times for one of the best editorials I have ever read. Not only is it well written; more importantly, it deals with a timely issue with the best of journalistic standards and ethics. I agree, we (Americans) must learn to consider issues with objective reality, rather than with lies and statistical hocus-pocus which has infected the highest levels of government practice here in the early years of the 21st century. THANK YOU for this editorial. "

Randy wrote on March 09, 2007 9:00 AM:"Why doesn't the media band together, hire a reliable pollster/statistician, and provide reliable data for this hot-button issue?"

Ed Weirdness wrote on March 09, 2007 9:09 AM:"Certainly have the correct data is important, but to delay or deny the urgency of the illegal immigration issue over facts that "cannot be legally obtained" is madness! One cannot ask anyone regarding their "legal status", therefor assumptions must be made. Just because those assumptions don't coincide with your particular preference or agenda, shouldn't, in the vacuum of contradictory "facts" and not equally speculative "assumptions" discount their value. It's impossible to prove a negative without evidence. We can however use census data (how much the population has increased, less the number of known births, less the number of known legal immigrants) to arrive at a potential illegal alien demographic that can serve. The fact that births to American citizens has not achieved replacement value, should (in view of growing congestion, diminishing resources, increased taxation, diminishing resources and green space and a host of other social ills attributable to uncontrolled population growth), be an indication of the size and impact of unconstrained immigration policies. Simply saying that illegal immigration doesn't present a problem, doesn't make it so!"

David wrote on March 09, 2007 10:52 AM:"This is so right. I assume so many criminers are enjoying this "reid over illegals" because all the crimes criminers did are assumed that "illegals" did it. All the police men are working all day arresting innocent illegals who only broke a law that 12~ 20 millions did so real murderers and rapers could hide from their crimes. At the same time, Americans enjoy news like "illegal arrested" when their daughter is being shot by some Americans. NICE"

J wrote on March 09, 2007 10:58 AM:"When Americans enjoy news like "illegals are arrested" they don't realize that real murderers, rapers and con-artists are enjoying their freedom. Criminers have no worries because all the crimes done by Americans are supposed to be done by "illegals." When some illegal father is arrested, his family suffer. At the same time, the jail room that illegal father is in is supposed to be a place for a murderer who is watching TV now at his home because there is no police or jail rooms left because police is busy arresting illegal families and jail is full. and normal Americans will wonder one day, "why is it more dangerous outside even all illegals are in jails?""

Protecting my Pocketbook wrote on March 09, 2007 11:22 AM:"It isn't only the hit and run accidents that cost tax and insurance paying drivers. It is the fact that there are a substantial number of drivers on the road who somehow do it without insurance. I suppose owning both my cars outright, I could be one of them. But, that would be acting in defiance of the law. That defiance is prevalent among illegals who may not hit the gas when they are in an accident, but hit the road instead, back to Mexico. That leaves the insured driver to make a claim against their own insurance and pay the price with higher premiums. Yes, the 650 of hit and runs in Mexcondido is unacceptable, but so is the number of uninsured drivers overall! As usual, the NCT takes the position to say in a sneaky way, "the problem with illegal aliens isn't as bad as you think"."

It's simple wrote on March 09, 2007 11:24 AM:"So don't complicate it. The police department (and yes Sam Abed) have provided figures that they have inflated to help defend their actions. Since this particular subject (number of hit and run accidents) was so critical and yet so easy to accurately determine, one must conclude a certain amount of malice is in play. And the NCT as the watch dog in this case was probably a little slow in catching it. The most likely explaination? The individual people involved (police, council members, city staff and NCT reporters) got a little to comfortable and little too cozy with each other. Now what? NCT: Do your job!!! Be professional. Ask hard questions and demand answers. Hold people like the police, Abed, Gallo, Daniels, Waldron and Pfieler accountable for what they say. Abed's numbers have been pulled from thin air for months; is it any surprise the police do the same thing? Apology accepted. Thanks for finally getting it right. "

Imagine This wrote on March 09, 2007 11:31 AM:"We are already diverting millions of tax funded resources toward ill-advised solutions to the problems caused by illegal immigration. As an illustration, paying for the hospitalization of illegals who are in accidents while our own citizens who have no insurance face bankruptcy. Or increased insurance fees to policy holders covering the costs of those who drive without insurance. The tax resources are already being spent on the behalf of the illegal aliens, now how about spending some of those resources to protect those of us taxpayers!"

To J or T.J wrote wrote on March 09, 2007 11:43 AM:"ahhh, 'his family suffer'!!really, you cannot be serious. Yes we have crime, American crime .We always have and always will. No that illegal should not be in our jail room,(FYI, oh I mean For Your Information it should be jail cell) he sould be in yours, south of the border. When you have millions ,yes millions of people slinking around under the radar it is a serious problem. I would like to ask you, If you believe illegal immigration is good. Then, to what end? when Is it enough? When are there too many? Do you want to wait until where you ran to, looks exactly like where you ran from? When this becomes Mexico where will you run then? Where will you go?"

Wesley Franklin wrote on March 09, 2007 12:22 PM:"Food For Thought Iraq's Learning Spanish Before Crossing to America from Mexico http://www.house.gov/mccaul/ " A LINE IN THE SAND:""

AMAZING wrote on March 09, 2007 1:01 PM:"No one here gets the point of this column. The police have been lying. Abed has been lying. Instead of leadeship we get hysteria and misinformation. "

To Amazing wrote on March 09, 2007 2:05 PM:"Most of us city folk are bright enough to know that we are lied to everytime we turn around. we should never take their word as gospel.With that being said, My eyes do not lie to me. My daughters first thru fourth grade classes taught half in spanish, was not a lie. The hit and runs I have personally seen were not a lie. The walfare lines I see at the county offices are not a lie.Last may first was a slap in the face, and thats no lie!!You dont get the point! Stop the INVASION"

No sweat wrote on March 09, 2007 3:41 PM:"Hey NC Times opinion writers, don't sweat saying anything negative about the "immigrant advocates". Most of them don't worry with reading books and newspapers and even when they do they interpret what is written in a way that will only serve their own means to an end."

juancarlos wrote on March 09, 2007 4:16 PM:"The point of the editorial isn't important. What is important is that it avoids the real issue. Our borders are not secure. If we had secure borders this "issue" wouldn't even exist. And -- no -- it isn't about immigration. It's about ILLEGAL immigration. Control of its borders is the right and responsibility of every nation on the face of this earth. Our leaders are not doing their duty."

American woman wrote on March 09, 2007 5:12 PM:"I wish you all could see the sweet little violin I was playing as I read this NCT editorial! Next thing you know, the NCT will be announcing a weekly "take-an-illegal-alien-home-to-dinner event! Any attempt to minimize, in any way, the absurd tsunami waves of illegal immigrants (not to mention illicit drugs) flowing into this sovereign nation every single day, is a dispicable act! Is anyone else as tired of this type of rhetoric by print media as I am? This has got to stop! Above, the contributing "staff" insults itself by stating that their reporting hasn't been up to snuff...D'ya THINK??? Now. Here's the deal...let's just see if the "staff" gets it right from now on. What we should be seeing in the future, when the NCT addresses the illegal alien invasion on America, is the TRUTH. The well-investigated, statistically correct TRUTH. My guess is, we will not be reading much about the issue for awhile. Here's a tidbit for those who REALLY GIVE A DARN: A friend called me this morning from AZ. He is a civilian border watcher, and was reporting a vicious upswing in the numbers of illegal aliens "visiting" the U.S. by other than legal means during the last several days! We will not hear about it from the media. But you can take this to the bank (be careful WHICH bank)...The numbers of illegal aliens STILL pouring over our wide-open borders is doubling and tripling by the hour! This travesty will continue until the final nail is driven into the coffin of the United States of America, and she is ever-after known as the middle section of the North American Union. Wake up, America."

American woman wrote on March 09, 2007 5:14 PM:"David: Please! Have someone type your comment for you in English. I have no idea what you just said here!"

American woman wrote on March 09, 2007 5:17 PM:"David...Don't ask J for help!!! "

Skip wrote on March 09, 2007 8:12 PM:"Most Americans equate illegal aliens with a higher incidence of crime. Some academic researchers have attempted to prove that is a misimpression. But, in fact, data show that the American public understands the facts better than the academics. Adult illegal aliens represented 2.94 percent of the total adult population of the country in 2003.1 By comparison, the illegal alien prison population represented a bit more than 4.54 percent of the overall prison population. Therefore, deportable criminal aliens were more than half again as likely to be incarcerated as their share of the population. "

Reardon wrote on March 09, 2007 10:19 PM:"Does this editorial mean that the NCT is calling for accurate information on the number of illegal alien children in schools? The number of illegal aliens using free medical care? The number of illegal aliens living in Escondido? North County? California? We all need better information, but I don't see the NCTimes doing anything to give it to us, or even calling upon the requisite agencies to collect the information so the NCTimes can give it to us!"

Add Your Comments or Letter to the Editor

Ex Vista, Baja California resident wrote on March 09, 2007 3:02 PM:"It's sad the state of affairs going on in So. California. I'm glad we finally got out of Vista and moved to Idaho. We used to live in a nice community in Vista. When we put our house up for sale a year ago, all my neighbors of 15+ years asked us to only sell to a nice family. I didn't think much of it at the time. What they were really saying was don't sell to "illegals". As the house sat vacant for 11 months, the only people interested were large migrant families. No so called nice families even considered it. I called my agent down there to check in an asked. Here feeling was that with all the racial divinions and hispanic uproar, the buyers my neighbors had hoped for were looking outside of Vista. When we finally sold, and happy we did, I did not know the buyers but it was a LLP partnership. My old neighbors told me that a Mexican backed partnership had bought the house and were renting it back to four illegal families. Now I see how they get around the laws to obtain property. I commend Bilbray on trying to reign in the problem but someone will always have a way around it. I'll continue to watch the fight down there via internet from my 40 acre spred. It's time to take America back!"

Most Commented-On
Stories This Week

Activists gear up for immigration reform debate (95)
Escondido gang members given notice (94)
Border patrol may work alongside Escondido police (85)
Escondido police chief against immigration officers at checkpoints (84)
Solana Beach building measure victorious after tally (76)
Letters to the Editor - 3/7/2007 (64)
Bilbray co-sponsors bill aimed at banking rights of illegal immigrants (62)
Letters to the Editor - 3/9/2007 (62)
Letters to the Editor - 3/6/2007 (5
Letters to the Editor - 3/5/2007 (55)

http://www.nctimes.com/opinion/

Comments On This Story

Mod Edit

Add Your Comments or Letter to the Editor

Before we can talk sensibly about the impact of illegal immigration on our lives ---- and long before we divert millions of dollars in tax-funded resources toward ill-advised solutions ---- we need good data. Insist upon it ---- from us,....

Yes, we certainly need our government to properly track numbers and keep statistics on as many aspects of illegal immigration as possible, including the legal status of those committing crimes and of those trying to obtain taxpayer funded benefits.

Additionally, we need media, like this newspaper and its reporters, to be honest in their reporting, to present BOTH sides of the illegal immigration issue, not just sob stories on illegal immigrants being caught in raids, etc. The media has been frightfully ignorant and absent on the true costs of illegal immigration in the US, and thus have been party to misleading the American public.