Thread: Outside Tancredo camp, fear takes siesta

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Littwin: Outside Tancredo camp, fear takes siesta
September 19, 2006

The results are in: And it looks like the demagogues are losing. In fact, they're getting trashed.

This is stunningly bad news, of course, for certain talk-radio hosts.

And even worse news for Tom "I Wish I Was in the Land of Cotton" Tancredo and his would-be presidential campaign.

But it's good news for the rest of us (or at least 61 percent of the rest of us) who don't think that provoking hysteria is necessarily always the best solution to every problem.

The topic, of course, is illegal immigration. What else? And the numbers in the Rocky/CBS 4 poll are pretty startling.

According to the survey, conducted by a Republican pollster, 61 percent of Coloradans believe - like George W. Bush believes and the majority of the U.S. Senate believes - in what some call a "path to citizenship" and the talk-radio Tancredo-ites call "amnesty."

Many of you don't believe the poll. I know this because, after your generous calls, the Rocky's phone system is holding up only slightly better than the Broncos' offensive line.

I'm not a huge believer in polls myself. But this poll is not what we call an outlier. The national polls say almost exactly the same thing.

Coincidence? As we say in the old country, No creo.

In Colorado, 61 percent say illegal immigrants should be allowed to become citizens if they meet certain requirements - and 15 percent say they should be deported. A USA Today/Gallup poll from April had the numbers at 63 and 18 percent, respectively. A Washington Post/ABC poll had 63 percent for citizenship and 20 percent saying that illegal immigrants should be felons.

See a trend here? How about a movement?

The meaning here is pretty clear. Yes, people are concerned. No one doubts a poll if it says - as the Gallup poll did - that 90 percent of Americans are concerned about illegal immigration.

But they're apparently not so concerned that they fell into the Dick Lamm camp - in which illegal "aliens" are so alien that America can't absorb them as it has every other immigrant group.

And so, for those keeping score, fear strikes out, or at least is batting with an 0-2 count. This is refreshing development at a time when fear drives everything from how much torture we should tolerate to how many immigrants.

So, yes, the immigration numbers seem startling. But maybe that's because so many people - plus or minus 4.5 percent of them anyway - keep telling us we have a crisis, and we figure if Lou Dobbs says so, it must be right.

The poll says that, on balance, 46 percent believe immigration is bad for Colorado and 42 percent disagree.

Economists, meantime, are split on the effects of illegal immigration.

And though everyone agrees the present system is broken - a system in which, sure, some immigration is illegal, but with a nod and a wink - not everyone agrees on how to fix it.

But a crisis?

Here's a tip on how to measure this issue on your crisis-o-meter:

Turn off your radio, go outside and look around. (If you're in a car, I advise pulling off to the side of the road first.)

If the sky is not falling, resume reading this column - and laugh along with me (it's either laugh or cry) that Tancredo's House of Representatives can vote to make illegal immigrants into felons.

If the sky is falling, go down with Tancredo and the Minutemen and help build a wall along the Mexican border and then go to the Canadian border and build another wall and then mine the harbors and then, if you're still not satisfied, warm up the ICBMs.

It helps if you get outraged by any sighting of the Mexican flag, but not necessarily the Confederate flag, which is apparently fine.

It certainly didn't seem to concern Tancredo, who, as you must have heard, recently joined his anti-illegal-immigration buddies in South Carolina in a Confederate-flag-bedraped room while singing a stirring round of Dixie. Makes you proud, doesn't it?

Fortunately, I don't live in Tancredo's district - where, surprisingly, I've never heard anyone even whistling Dixie - but I went Monday to check up on the governor's race, in which I do get to vote.

Bill Ritter and Bob Beauprez were debating before the Colorado Contractors Association, whose members, as you might guess, have some interest in the immigration issue.

Ritter backed the Senate plan, which would make it possible for roofers to continue to work in America.

Beauprez sounded tougher, but also pro-business, even if it means having to tolerate Spanish-speaking drywall hangers. He offered a system "so it's flexible, so it's expeditious . . . like you would an inventory (of foreign workers)."

Actually, I was more interested in the reaction from Tony Milo, the organization's executive director, to the Rocky's poll numbers.

"We were pleasantly surprised," he said. "Very pleasantly surprised."

I was pleasantly surprised, too. But I'm waiting for the next surprise - when we see a poll like this and we're not surprised at all.

littwinm@RockyMountainNews.com

like you would an inventory (of foreign workers)."

This certainly is a smoke and mirror screen for slavery, at least it seems that way to me.

Wouldn't it make more sense to have more American workers doing these jobs? At least this way, an American citizen would be paying into the tax base instead of taking from it (social programs).
I wonder why these jerks don't realize that if more Americans were doing these jobs, the tax deficit we have each year just may start to decrease.

The way this sounds is that these jobs will disappear if there's no immigrant workers to do them. In other words, these companies are afraid their margins will be closer if they can't have their stupid cheap labor.

I'm not a huge believer in polls myself. But this poll is not what we call an outlier. The national polls say almost exactly the same thing.

I'm not much for polls either - as they can subject to subtle manipulation to render certain results over others...

According to the survey, conducted by a Republican pollster,

Ahhh, the anonymous source... ' a Republican pollster' - ok, which one - does this pollster have a name?

Argument flaw#1: the irrefutable 'anonymous source'.

Even better, why is the reader entrusted to be content with the summary of the poll questions posed, and not able to view the exact questions used?

In Colorado, 61 percent say illegal immigrants should be allowed to become citizens ...

Oh, so we're talking about illegal immigrants here,... ok. But wait, are we really...?

The poll says that, on balance, 46 percent believe immigration is bad for Colorado and 42 percent disagree.

Oh, so now we're talking about just plain 'immigrants', right?

So, which is it, 'illegal immigrants' or 'immigrants'?

Argument flaw #2: Incomparables - Apples vs. Oranges

But this poll is not what we call an outlier

No, you might not call it an outlier, but I do.


Re: "The national polls say almost exactly the same thing. "
Which ones?

Argument flaw#3: The irrefutable source. And...
'Almost exactly the same thing' and 'exactly the same thing' are neither identical nor interchangeable. Phrased in this context, the results either ARE the same or THEY ARE NOT - and if they are not, then how different are they?

And I could quote a handful of polls that say just the opposite of what you claim, so what? Here's a better indicator: call your local US Representative or Senator and ask them what the ratio of Pro vs. Con calls they receive is like on the subject? Maybe the polls you quote sir are not the reputable accurate sources of information you so keenly espouse, but rather, are the sources of error in the debate.

Even if this poll were accurate, (AND I DON"T BELIEVE FOR THE WORLD THAT IT IS) we have current immigration laws on our side.

I'm with you guys. They are grabbing at straws here with a bogus poll.

You can tell that this guy is not at all sure of himself or why would there be a need for insults? One with the racism (they just have no real arguments even when quoting a poll that "backs them up") and two disparaging Mr Tancredo's possible presidential run. I've alway found that those sure of themselves or in a superior position do not resort to insults. Only those who have no real backing or facts generally do.

And even worse news for Tom "I Wish I Was in the Land of Cotton" Tancredo and his would-be presidential campaign.

Don't hesitate to drop Mr Littwin a little note.
littwinm@rockymountainnews.com