Thread: Perry's claim of drop in border crime questioned

http://www.elpasotimes.com/breakingnews/ci_4548753
Perry's claim of drop in border crime questioned (5:33 p.m.)
By Brandi Grissom / El Paso Times
El Paso Times
Article Launched:10/25/2006 05:25:09 PM MDT

AUSTIN -- Stunning borderwide drops in crime GOP Gov. Rick Perry last week attributed to state border security efforts are more likely campaign calculations than accurate statistics, according to experts and some law enforcement officials.
In news conferences and campaign television commercials week, Perry lauded state-led border security operations he said reduced crime 60 percent borderwide and kept Texans safe from terrorism.

But Perry's top homeland security official acknowledged the numbers used to calculate that average do not prove a sustained drop in crime from El Paso to Brownsville, do not include crime rates in major border cities and do not account for other factors that may have contributed to the crime decrease.

"The smart user and creator of data takes all those things into account, but the politician just uses data and ignores what's not convenient," said UTEP sociology and anthropology Professor Cheryl Howard.

Perry spokeswoman Kathy Walt stood by the governor's numbers this week.

"I don't think there's a doubt in anyone's mind that increased law enforcement presence on the border will produce a dramatic reduction in crime," she said.

To come up with the 60 percent drop in crime Perry touts, state homeland security officials averaged together declines in several counties from operations that happened at different times over a four-month period.

Texas Homeland Security Director Steve McCraw said the "surge" operations, part of Perry's border effort called Operation Rio Grande, concentrated local, state and federal law enforcement resources in rural areas known to be hotbeds of illegal activity.

There were five surge operations. The first operation, in the Del Rio area, started in June. Each operation lasted about three weeks. Operation El Paso happened in August, right after the disastrous flooding.

Twenty-seven Texas counties within 100 miles of the border participated in the intensive operations.

"This reduction could not have been possible without funding from the governor's office," said Zapata County Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez, one of 16 border sheriffs divvying up more than $10 million Perry has allotted for border security operations.

To gauge the results of their efforts, McCraw said local sheriffs compared crime data from the time of the surge operation to crime reports from the same time last year.

The sheriffs calculated drops ranging from 25 percent to more than 70 percent in all crime, ranging from vandalism to rape and murder.

"The measurement was only at the time we were conducting the operations," McCraw said.

He said there was no statistical evaluation of whether crime remained low after the operations. But, McCraw acknowledged, there was evidence that when law enforcement surged in one area, criminals surged in other areas.

"Naturally, these are entrepreneurs, they're ruthless, they're vicious, morally bankrupt entrepreneurs," McCraw said. " They're always pushing to find other ways to do it."

Perry also bragged that the operations kept Texans safe from would-be terrorists.

"The potential for terrorist organizations to infiltrate our border is a real threat that must be taken seriously," Perry said, one of seven times he used the word terrorism or terrorist during the 30-minute press event.

Rick Glancey, Texas Border Sheriffs interim executive director, said he could not discuss whether any of the sheriffs had contacted a terrorism suspect.

"There is no way, without compromising any investigation, to discuss this publicly," he said.

If, and that is a BIG IF, this is true I have to wonder if DC has told Fox to keep the numbers down till after elections. Would not surprise me in the least! After elections you can bet the doors will be thrown wide open!

We have to stop the SPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!