Thread: Population Estimates of Undocumented Immigrants in the US

I. Graph of Unauthorized Resident Alien Population Compared to the Total U.S. Population





II. Chart of Unauthorized Resident Alien Population Compared to the Total U.S. Population




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Year Unauthorized Resident Alien Population
(with link to source) Total U.S. Population
(according to U.S. Census) % of Unauthorized to Total

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1969 540,000 202,676,946 0.3%

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1974 1,116,000 213,853,928 0.5%

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1980 3,000,000 227,224,681 1.3%

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1983 2,093,000 233,791,994 0.9%

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1992 3,400,000 255,029,699 1.3%

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1996 5,000,000 265,228,572 1.9%

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2000 8,460,000
10,241,669 282,193,477 3.0%
3.6%

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2001 7,800,000 285,107,923 2.7%

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2004 9,300,000 293,656,842 3.2%

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2005 10,500,000
11,100,000
20,000,000 296,410,404 3.5%
3.7%
6.7%

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2006 11,550,000
11,750,000 300,000,000 3.9%
3.9%



III. Graph of Unauthorized Resident Alien Population Estimates (in Millions)
[Note: Sources may vary by year, and study results may vary within the same year.]





IV. Chart of Unauthorized Resident Alien Population Estimates with Full-Text Reports


#
Estimated Number of Unauthorized Aliens
(Year)
Quote, Date, and Source
(with links to source biography and full text of report)


1
11,550,000
(2006)

"In summary, there were an estimated 11.6 million [Rounded from 11,550,000 by the Department of Homeland Security] unauthorized immigrants living in the United States as of January 2006."

August, 2007, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

"Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2006" (PDF) 557 KB


2
11,750,000*
(2006)

"Based on analysis of other data sources that offer indications of the pace of growth in the foreign-born population, the Center developed an estimate of 11.5 to 12 million for the unauthorized population as of March 2006."



March 7, 2006, The Pew Research Center

"The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey" (PDF) 916 KB


* Average between 11.5 and 12 million

3
10,500,000
(2005)



"There were an estimated 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States in January 2005..."



August, 2006, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

"Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2005" (PDF) 221 KB

4
11,100,000
(2005)

"Analysis of the March 2005 Current Population Survey shows that there were 11.1 million unauthorized migrants in the United States a year ago.."



March 7, 2006, The Pew Research Center

"The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey" (PDF) 916 KB



5
20,000,000
(2005)

"The number of illegal immigrants in the United States may be as high as 20 million people, more than double the official 9 million people estimated by the Census Bureau."



Jan. 3, 2005, Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc.

"The Underground Labor Force Is Rising To The Surface" (PDF) 215 KB

6
9,300,000
(2004)

"Our best estimate, based on the March 2002 Current Population Survey and other data sources, is that there are 9.3 million undocumented immigrants in the country. They represent 26 percent of the total foreign-born population."



January 12, 2004, Urban Institute

"Undocumented Immigrants: Facts and Figures" (PDF) 84 KB

7
7,800,000
(2001)

"In the case of the total unauthorized population, we estimate that the size of this group in mid-2001 varies from a low of about 5.9 million to a high of about 9.9 million, with a mid-range estimate of about 7.8 million. In the case of the Mexican unauthorized population, we estimate that the size of this group varies from a low of about 3.4 million to a high of about 5.8 million, with a mid-range estimate of about 4.5 million. In the case of the non-Mexican Central American unauthorized population, we estimate that the size of this group varies from a low of about 1.2 million to a high of about 1.9 million, with a mid-range estimate of about 1.5 million."


January 24, 2002, The Pew Research Center

"Estimates of Numbers of Unauthorized Migrants Residing In the United States" (PDF) 138 KB

8
8,460,000
(2000)

"DHS [Department of Homeland Security] estimates that the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States increased 24 percent from 8.5 million on January 1, 2000 to 10.5 million on January 1, 2005."

August, 2006, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

"Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2005" (PDF) 221 KB

9
10,241,669
(2000)

"According to our calculations, the estimated residual foreign-born population counted in the 2000 census was 8,705,419. Assuming a 15-percent undercount rate yields a population of 10,241,669 in 2000."

June, 2002, U.S. Census Bureau

"Population Division Working Paper # 61, Evaluating Components of International Migration: The Residual Foreign Born," (PDF) 140 KB

10
5,000,000
(1996)

3,400,000
(1992)

"In its last set of estimates, INS [Immigration and Naturalization Service] estimated that the population was 5.0 million in October 1996... In 1994, the INS developed the first detailed national estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States. Those estimates indicated that the unauthorized resident population was 3.4 million as of October 1992..."


January 12, 2004, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service

"Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: 1990 to 2000" (PDF) 473 KB

11
2,093,000
(1983)

"...the 'April 1983 [U.S. Census Bureau] Current Population Survey' included over two million (2,093,000) undocumented aliens aged fourteen years and over... Just over 30 percent of the two million entered the United States during 1980-1983 and nearly one-half came to the country during the 1970s."


Winter, 1987, U.S. Census Bureau

"Change in the Undocumented Alien Population in the United States, 1979-1983" (PDF) 720 KB

12
3,000,000**
(1980)

1,116,000***
(1974)

540,000****
(1969)

"...estimates of the number counted in the census [1980] provide a firm empirical basis for setting a lower bound on the total in the country as of 1980. The estimates presented in this paper, along with the results of other studies (Panel on Immigration Statistics, 1985), suggest that the undocumented Mexican population in 1980 was in the 1-2 million range, with the total number from all countries falling in the range of 2-4 million. [...] Of the undocumented present and counted in 1980, 941,000 entered during 1975-1980; 576,000 entered during 1970-1974; and 540,000 entered before 1970 [and after passage of the Immigration Act of 1965]. [...] Finally, the estimates for 1980 show a high proportion of recent arrivals, and very few who entered the United States prior to 1960."


August, 1987, Robert Warren ; Jeffrey S. Passel

"A Count of the Uncountable: Estimates of Undocumented Aliens Counted in the 1980 United States Census" (PDF) 540 KB


** Average between 2 and 4 million
*** Sum of 540,000 (1969) and 576,000 (1970 - 1974)
**** "before 1970" and after 1965 was interpreted by ProCon.org to mean as of 1969


[Editor's Note: On March 27, 2007, we called the U.S. Census Bureau to get pre-1970 statistics, and were told that the "Census survey does not ask for legal status information," and that the existing estimates are based on "residual studies" which were not available until the 1970s. We also called the Department of Homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics and were told that "data prior to 1970 are scarce," and "early estimates are not reliable." We did find a statement from the U.S. General Accounting Office explaining why pre-1970 information is so hard to find:

"The illegal alien population is constantly in flux. Individuals enter and exit this population daily by making covert border crossings, by taking unauthorized employment, by failing to leave when their visas expire, by dying, and as a result of INS [Immigration and Naturalizations Service] decisions. Policymakers need to know the size of the population at particular moments and the volume of immigration over periods of time. Although illegal immigration has been a concern since the introduction of immigration curbs in 1875, deliberate attempts to estimate the population size reliably were not made until the 1970's."


September, 1982,U.S. General Accounting Office

"Report to the Chairman of the Subcommittee on Immigration and Refugee Policy of the Committee on the Judiciary United States Senate: Problems and Options in Estimating the Size of the Illegal Alien Population" (PDF) 3,057 KB ]


Last updated on: 4/14/2009 6:02 AM PST


http://immigration.procon.org/viewresou ... eID=000844

Where do they really get the information about how many illegals are in our country? I find it highly suspect, since we don't include the illegals as a separate population in our census. And they are counted as they come into our country and/or as they leave. And illegals steal documentation to use welfare and social services. How do schools count them? Are there names on our books?

I think the number of illegals is much higher than what is presented.

Originally Posted by ELE

Where do they really get the information about how many illegals are in our country? I find it highly suspect, since we don't include the illegals as a separate population in our census. And they are counted as they come into our country and/or as they leave. And illegals steal documentation to use welfare and social services. How do schools count them? Are there names on our books?

Schools have no way of counting them nor are they allowed one School district will have 10 kids at a time using the same SS# but different name or have the same SS# show up over the years over and over under different names. They have a system in the schools in high illegal populated areas to deal with this so the child can go to school and get free lunch and other services, they make it work

I am so sick of all the talking heads bouncing on the "estimated 12 million illegal" number for a couple years now. Truth is no one knows enough to estimate, and it is a statistic continually in flux with thousands pouring across the border every day. We catch a few, throw them back across the border, but who knows how often they turn around and come back? No one is even sure how many have given up due to the economy and gone back or how many refuse to go because of all the 45 bambinos they would leave behind and instead they beg for jobs outside Home Depot and live off social assistance while renting someone's garage (illegally, of course).

I think the Bear Stearns estimate is closer yet still low.

Schools have no way of counting them nor are they allowed one School district will have 10 kids at a time using the same SS# but different name or have the same SS# show up over the years over and over under different names. They have a system in the schools in high illegal populated areas to deal with this so the child can go to school and get free lunch and other services, they make it work.

Kimnorth, if this is true, this needs to be spread all over the place. Maybe your local TV station or newspaper can do some digging.[/quote]

Originally Posted by vortex

Schools have no way of counting them nor are they allowed one School district will have 10 kids at a time using the same SS# but different name or have the same SS# show up over the years over and over under different names. They have a system in the schools in high illegal populated areas to deal with this so the child can go to school and get free lunch and other services, they make it work.

Kimnorth, if this is true, this needs to be spread all over the place. Maybe your local TV station or newspaper can do some digging.

[/quote]

Everyone knows! You think the news is going to want to take the backlash over printing or reporting on this? No way!

This artical talks a little about our school don't ask don't tell.

It's the same in California

http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/29...

Sheriffs: Are you in school legally?
By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 04.28.2009
PHOENIX — Some border county sheriffs want Arizona schools to start asking students whether they're in this country legally.
Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik originated the idea and said millions of dollars in Arizona taxes go to teach English to children who have no legal right to be here. He also said there's a link involving illegal immigration, social problems and gangs.
Only thing is, a 1982 U.S. Supreme Court decision appears to make it illegal for school officials to ask. In a 5-4 decision, the justices overturned a Texas law that authorized school districts to refuse to enroll anyone who couldn't prove legal residence.
But Dupnik said it may be time for Arizona to have a test case to put the issue back before the high court — to see if the current justices agree.
Dupnik has the backing of Yuma County Sheriff Ralph Ogden and Joe Arpaio, his Maricopa County counterpart. And Gov. Jan Brewer said she sees no reason why youngsters shouldn't be asked to prove they are U.S. citizens or legal residents.
"When I grew up, when I went to school, when I moved from Nevada to California, I had to bring my birth certificate to prove I was a citizen," she said.
But Attorney General Terry Goddard said he doesn't think schools have the expertise to determine legal status. And state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne said he believes the federal government should just do a better job of protecting the border.
"But as long as kids are here, they should be in school," he said. "You don't want them on the street corner."
Dupnik, however, has an answer for that: Have schools report their findings to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
"They would identify the people that are here illegally by the thousands and send them back, kids and parents," he said.
The issue has financial implications: The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that 60,000 to 65,000 of the 1.2 million youngsters in Arizona schools are not in this country legally.
The Department of Education figures basic state aid for students is about $6,000 a year, not counting what the state pays for school construction. That puts the price tag near $390 million — minus, of course, any taxes from illegal residents that go toward education funding.
But that doesn't count the extra $360 per student Arizona now gives to schools to help English-language learners. Assuming two-thirds of these students fit that category, that adds $15 million to the tab.
In 1982, however, the Supreme Court voided a 1975 Texas law that denied state aid to districts for children not "legally admitted" into the United States. That law also allowed districts to deny admission to those students.
Attorneys for Texas argued that the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which entitles every person to equal protection of law, doesn't apply to those not in the country legally.
"We reject this argument," Justice William Brennan wrote for the majority. "Whatever his status under the immigration laws, an alien is surely a 'person' in any ordinary sense of the term." And Brennan said education is the only way people can advance themselves.
Tucson-area education leaders were hardly supportive of the sheriffs' idea.
"Our function is not immigration, but to provide a quality education to kids who live in our district or who come in under open enrollment," said Nicholas Clement, superintendent of the Flowing Wells Unified School District.
He said it could invite new problems for schools, envisioning the need to hire additional staffers, order additional training and make difficult decisions on what kinds of documentation would be acceptable.

Until our government states "Enforcement of law" who knows how many more will come here knowing they are going to get amnesty. Both presidential canidates stated "A pathway to citizenship to those here" It seems to me this is a invitation to hurry to USA." Just think of MSM and Congress with President Obama would state "We enforcing the law and you will be liable for SS# used while in the USA." IF they had to prove they only worked at certain job but SS# showed more, than and only than they would feel what USA Citizens go through. Turn about is fair play. They would self deport in the shawdows.

Maybe Congress can pass a new sin tax on money transfered out of USA; maybe 10%. Let them help pay for their cost