Thread: Primary day! Will Graf Win in Arizona?

http://politics.wizbangblog.com/2006/09 ... ry-day.php

September 12, 2006
Primary day!
In one of the bigger primary days of the year, eight states hold primaries today. Arizona, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Wisconsin vote today. [CORRECTION: as reader "fatman" points out in the comments, there are actually NINE in that list]

There will also be special elections Thursday and Friday to fill spots on two Ohio district ballots, and Washington state and Massachusetts finish off the primary season next Tuesday. Hawaii does hold the absolute "final" primary on September 23rd.


The nationally most-important races we will be watching tonight include the Rhode Island GOP Senate contest between incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chaffee and challenger Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Laffey has the conservative credentials, but the GOP establishment is backing Chaffee as the only chance to hold the seat in "dark blue" RI. Late polls have this one too close to call.


In Maryland, the Democratic Senate nomination for the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes (whose magnum opus, the Sarbanes-Oxley law, is the classic example of why all legislation should be periodically subjected to cost-benefit analysis) is up for grabs. Long-time congressman Rep. Ben Cardin faces Kweisi Mfume, former congressman and recently President of the NAACP. The polls have been all over the place on this one, so we'll just have to see the "only poll that counts" tonight. The winner will face off against presumptive GOP nominee Lt. Gov. Michael Steele.


Arizona hosts one of the key House primaries in its 8th district, as 11-term incumbent Rep. Jim Kolbe is stepping down to run for Governor. State Sen. Gabby Giffords is heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination, but the Republican side is very interesting. Outside money has been coming it to help both former state Rep. Randy Graf and state Rep. Steve Huffman. Graf is being backed by Rep. Tom Tancredo and Bay Buchanan for his tough anti-immigration stance, while national and state Republican parties are supporting the more moderate Huffman, a former aide to Kolbe, who is thought to have a better chance of holding the seat in the general election. Polls had Graf in the lead, but short of a majority, so the race may depend on the supporters for the other "also-ran" candidates.


Be sure and check here often tonight for the latest updates.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=16940

NRCC Pushes Moderate in Ariz. Primary

by John Gizzi
Posted Sep 11, 2006

The National Republican Congressional Committee has spent more than $200,000 in the last two weeks on television spots in Arizona’s 8th U.S. House District boosting the candidacy in the contested September 12 primary of Arizona State Rep. Steve Huffman, handpicked successor of retiring Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe.

Like Kolbe (lifetime American Conservative Union rating: 74%), Huffman is pro-abortion and supports the guest-worker program for illegal immigration favored by the Bush Administration and many Senate Democrats.

Almost incredibly, NRCC-crafted ads dub Huffman “the conservative choice” of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a backer of a “common-sense approach” to immigration.

Former State Rep. Randy Graf, meanwhile, is the favored candidate of most conservatives in the 8th District. Graf is solidly pro-life and a strong supporter of the tough border-security measure sponsored by House Judiciary Chairman Jim Sensenbrenner (R.-Wis.), which passed the House last year.

Two years ago, Graf stunned pundits by winning 43% of the vote against 20-year incumbent Kolbe. In an underfinanced campaign, Graf scored points with Republicans throughout the Tucson-area district (much of which is on the Mexican border) by hitting hard at Kolbe’s support for a guest-worker program for illegal immigrants.

Since he announced his retirement, Kolbe has made several not-so-subtle hints that he would not back Graf if Graf is the Republican nominee.

One source close to NRCC Chairman Tom Reynolds (N.Y.) told me under a promise of anonymity that the decision to support Huffman was made because “Graf is unelectable” against either of the two Democrats vying for nomination in the 8th. “Based on polling data the NRCC had, [Huffman] was the strongest candidate,” said this source.

The same source said a survey conducted for the NRCC by the Tarrance Group showed Huffman and Graf just about tied among likely Republican voters. Reynolds did not return my calls.

The NRCC’s support for Huffman in the primary also pitted the committee against a third prominent Republican in the race, Arizona’s Republican National Committeeman Mike Hellon, who, like Huffman, is pro-choice and favors a guest-worker program. Nonetheless, Hellon told me he would not support Huffman if Huffman won the nomination. A colleague of Hellon on the RNC, North Dakota National Committeewoman Connie Nicholas, e-mailed me from Copenhagen upon learning of the NRCC decision. “I’m outraged—and you can quote me!” she said.

When I questioned NRCC spokesman Carl Forti about the Huffman-over-Graf decision, he told me: “We don’t discuss our strategy.” Forti did confirm, however, that the NRCC has had “a lot of calls” complaining about the move, which is the first time this year the committee has taken sides in a primary for an open seat.

Breaking with precedent, the NRCC decided to support Huffman in the primary without consulting the other GOP members of Arizona’s U.S. House delegation. “In the past, the committee did not have to operate under BCRA [the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act], which requires that we operate separately from other Republicans who might be involved in the race,” said Forti. “This has to be a truly independent expenditure, as BCRA makes it a felony to coordinate any such expenditures with others outside the committee.” After the McCain-Feingold Act became law, Forti went on to explain, the NRCC set up a separate independent expenditure team—in his words, one “walled off” from the rest of the committee—to deal with such circumstances.

“We’re not worried about it,” said Graf campaign manager R.T. Gregg, a former Reagan Administration official. “Primary voters are going to be incensed about national Republicans’ trying to dictate how the district should vote. Our donations have picked up since the news of this occurred.” Gregg also said he had just gotten off the phone with an irate Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R.-Calif.), who had learned of the NRCC’s decision and volunteered to do “anything and everything to help Randy.”

The NRCC’s involvement on behalf of the least conservative candidate has to raise serious doubts among conservatives nationally. Will the national Republican Party return to its pre-Reagan days of habitually promoting moderates over conservatives?

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/T ... izona.html

Arizona primary will test GOP immigration strategy
By Amy Sherman

The House’s final immigration field hearing planned today in Washington coincides with the Arizona primary, and political analysts are watching the elections closely to see how immigration resonates with voters.

In Arizona’s open 8th congressional district, conservative GOP candidate Randy Graf and moderate Steve Huffman are squaring off to replace outgoing Rep. Jim Kolbe.

Graf press secretary R.T. Gregg said House Republicans’ immigration hearings over the August recess have helped focus attention on an important issue for the district.

“It was good that members of Congress came to this district that is most affected by illegal immigration to see first hand the effects of illegal immigration,” he said, “particularly given the lack of attention our current Congressman from this district has given this most pressing problem.”

Gregg also criticized the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for pouring money into the district to benefit Huffman. Last week alone, the NRCC spent $122,000 on an ad campaign designed to benefit Huffman.

“[Immigration] is on the minds of voters...,” he said. However, Gregg argued that “intervention by power brokers in Washington has tended to cloud the issue...[the question becomes] whether the seat is for sale.”

Huffman’s campaign did not return a call for comment by press time.

I've got my fingers crossed for Graff!

This is the current total with 63 percent of the votes counted. 9:30 pm Mountain Standard Time.

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE DIST 8 REP REP
Polling Early PROV Total
Number of Precincts 275 0 0 275
Precincts Reporting 182 0 0 182 66.2 %
Vote For 1 1 1 1
Times Counted (Reg. Voters 113873) 22118 11136 0 33254 29.2 %
Total Votes 21693 10866 0 32559
Times Blank Voted 415 224 0 639
Times Over Voted 10 46 0 56
Number Of Under Votes 0 0 0 0

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ANTENORI, FRANK 868 450 0 1318 4.05%
GRAF, RANDY 9655 3402 0 13057 40.10%
HELLON, MIKE 2291 2095 0 4386 13.47%
HUFFMAN, STEVE 8106 4571 0 12677 38.94%
JENKINS, MIKE 666 311 0 977 3.00%
Write-in Votes 107 37 0 144 0.44%

Those numbers are very close.

Any more news???

Percent of Polls 89.9% counted

Graf 21,587 43.0%
Huffman 18,785 37.4%

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... tN.html

Graf vs. Giffords for Jim Kolbe's seat

The Arizona Republic
Sept. 12, 2006 10:15 PM


Conservative Randy Graf holds a comfortable lead of more than 2,000 votes in the 8th Congressional District race in southern Arizona as of 10:15 p.m.

For hours, he's been steadily pulling away from his rival, Steve Huffman, the four-term state lawmaker who was backed by the national party.

Earlier in the night, Graf's lead was a slim 500 votes.

With 80.6 percent of the votes counted, Graf led Huffman 42.4 percent to 37.8 percent.

The Democratic race is all but decided, with former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords pummeling former television anchorwoman Patty Weiss, 54.5 percent to 31.1 percent.

Graf and Giffords will battle for the seat currently held by retiring Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe.

The Democratic and Republican nominees also will face Libertarian David Nolan in the Nov. 7 general election.

Wonderful news!!

We wish him well in November!

GO GRAF!!



Thanks for the update Brian!!

94.8% Counted

Graf 22,841 43.2%
Huffman 19,664 37.2%