Thread: Immigration Impacts Australia Vote

AUGUST 19, 2010, 4:56 A.M. ET.

Immigration Impacts Australia Vote

By RACHEL PANNETT

CANBERRA—Immigration policy has emerged as a key theme in the closely fought Australian election campaign, particularly in big cities like Sydney, where new migrants often first settle and where pollsters say the vote will be won or lost.

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The major parties vying in Saturday's election have both moved to the right on immigration in recent times, amid a public backlash against a perceived uptick in illegal immigration.

Critics say political point-scoring over a small number of asylum speakers is clouding more pressing and complex issues, such as how infrastructure and resources can be managed to account for Australia's labor needs and a growing work force. Each boat arrival has spurred populist rhetoric and been used as a platform by some politicians to push for curbs on migration more generally.

Business groups worry that amid that rhetoric the long-term interest of the country is being neglected: Population growth is necessary in any strong economy.

"Population growth, and immigration as part of it, are an important and positive part of our nation's history," said Business Council of Australia Chief Executive Katie Lahey. "There's a temptation around election time to pitch to perceived short-term self interest rather than the long-term national interest."

Ms. Lahey argues population growth will offset the effects of Australia's aging population and ensure future governments have the tax revenue to fund health care, education, infrastructure and environmental measures.

Curbs on skilled migration are of particular concern in resource-rich states like Western Australia, where demand for labor is being buoyed by China's appetite for natural resources. The jobless rate in the province is just 4%, against a national figure of 5.3%.

Australia's Treasury has forecast the population will grow to around 36 million by 2050, from around 22 million now. By then, about 8.1 million Australians, or nearly a quarter of the population, will be aged over 65 years, with the ratio of working-aged people to every aged pensioner falling from five now to just 2.7.

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd endorsed the idea of a "Big Australia" but successor Julia Gillard argues population growth must be sustainable.

Tony Abbott, who leads the main opposition Liberal-National coalition of center-right parties, is promising to reduce the annual migration rate to 170,000 by the end of his first term if he wins power, from around 300,000 last year. Skilled migrants made up over a third of that 300,000 tally.

Labor already has put in place policies to cap migration, including shifting to a much narrower list of professions on its "skilled occupation list"--a policy criticized by some business groups.

It isn't just an increase in new migrants that has caused concern in some quarters.

Australia is experiencing urban drift. Official population data show a surge of people moving to capital cities: Sydney added almost 24,000 people in the past five years.

Commonwealth Securities Chief Economist Craig James says the fault isn't with population growth but the "failure of state and local governments" to ensure land supply and remove impediments to investors and developers.

But the upward pressure on house prices worries some mortgage-belt voters. And while refugees account for only a fraction of Australia's annual migrant intake, a recent surge in boat people--some 86 refugee boats have reached Australian waters so far this year--has seen them bear the brunt of the anti-migrant rhetoric.

Both major parties favor offshore processing of refugees, but differ on where this should be. Critics, including the small Greens party, describe such policy as a "race to the bottom" that doesn't consider Australia's future need for workers.

Write to Rachel Pannett at rachel.pannett@dowjones.com

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

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