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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, February 02, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday Hillary Clinton with an eight point lead in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s now Clinton 45%, Obama 37%. (see recent daily numbers).

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, it’s John McCain at 30%, Mitt Romney at 30%, and Mike Huckabee at 21%. Ron Paul is supported by 5% of Likely Republican Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers). Romney leads by sixteen percentage points among conservatives while McCain has a two-to-one advantage among moderate Primary Voters.

Today is the first day of daily tracking for the general election. McCain leads Clinton 47% to 41%. A week ago McCain had an eight point advantage. New match-ups will be added in the coming days.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Sunday at 11:00 a.m.

In the political world, all eyes are now on the Super Tuesday states selecting delegates next week. Today, Rasmussen Reports has released new data on the Democratic race in Missouri, Alabama, Tennessee. Later today, data will be released for Arizona and New York. Earlier polling showed Clinton leading in New Jersey, California and Massachusetts (see summary of Super Tuesday polls). Because the Democrats award delegates on a proportional representation basis, it may be very difficult for either candidate to earn a decisive victory next Tuesday.

On the Republican side, Missouri and Tennessee are toss-ups while McCain leads in Alabama. McCain has a solid lead in the winner-take-all state of New Jersey and holds modest leads in California, Connecticut, and Illinois (see summary of Rasmussen Reports Super Tuesday polls).

Rhodes Cook provides an analysis of what’s at stake on Super Tuesday, a day when 42% of the national convention delegates are selected.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 63.7 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a 38.4 % chance. On the Republican side, McCain is now given a 83.5 % chance of winning the nomination while Mitt Romney is at 12.4 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

A summary of Rasmussen Markets data for Super Tuesday contests is available for both Republicans and Democrats.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends. Rasmussen Reports also provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Each update includes approximately 900 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 800 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdgeâ„¢ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.