'Speaker Pelosi' seems real possibility
By Josh Richman
MEDIANEWS

Not long ago, "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi" sounded to many like little more than the rosy rhetoric of partisan Pollyannas.

But Republican House leaders' scramble to control Rep. Mark Foley's sexual messaging fiasco has stoked already-burning fires of discontent over both congressional corruption -- two GOP congressmen have resigned in the past year, with the first now in prison -- and the party's support of the Bush administration's Iraq war effort.

A 15-seat Democratic gain in the House no longer seems such a long shot.

"It would be stunning if this (Foley) scandal were not reducing social conservative turnout in November, which can only hurt one party -- the Republicans," said professor Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, a political scandal expert and a renowned election handicapper.

If Democrats retake the House, Pelosi, D-San Francisco, most likely will become its first female and first Californian speaker, just behind the vice president in the presidential line of succession -- the most powerful elected woman in American history.

Some conservatives have used the specter of "Speaker Pelosi" as an ultra-liberal bogeywoman to scare their base into voting. But as a mother of five with no apparent moral blemishes on her public record, "maybe she's the one to clean up the mess," Sabato said. "Who would you trust the (congressional) pages to?"

Meanwhile, other California House Democrats could become committee chairs if their party retakes the House. Those include the Bay Area's George Miller and Tom Lantos. And while the state's 20 Republicans now make up about 9 percent of their party's majority, its 33 Democrats -- or more, if embattled Republicans Richard Pombo and/or John Doolittle fall -- would be at least 15 percent of that party's majority, giving the state a stronger voting bloc.

Yet the Golden State might not sit much prettier than it does now.

The state long has griped it does not get enough federal money for homeland security, Medicare spending, HIV/AIDS treatment, education, border protection, illegal immigrant felons' incarceration and other costs. That is unlikely to change anytime soon, said professor Bruce Cain, director of the University of California, Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies.

"There's not a lot of wiggle room for California, and the reason is that many of the federal grants for California are set by formula," he said.

Many of those formulas are re-examined only every six years, and many others only upon overwhelming demand.

"There's not a hell of a lot you could do to fix the fact that we get back only 70 percent of what we send out to the feds," he said.

And Speaker Pelosi would have other priorities, Cain said, such as balancing Democrats' desire to rein in President Bush's power and policies with their need to position the party moderately for 2008's congressional and White House races.

"Her focus is going to be on trying to find a way to bring a very disparate party together, given everyone in the more conservative areas of the country thinks Nancy is a raving liberal loony," he said. "She won't keep her speakership very long if she keeps California at the top of her list of things to do."

Tim Ransdell, executive director of the California Institute for Federal Policy Research, said committee chairs could be a wash for the state.

California Republicans now chair six committees: Jerry Lewis, of Redlands, on Appropriations; Duncan Hunter, of El Cajon, on Armed Services; Howard "Buck" McKeon, of Santa Clarita, on Education and the Workforce; Pombo, of Tracy, on Resources; David Dreier, of Glendora, on Rules; and Bill Thomas, of Bakersfield, on Ways and Means.

Thomas is not seeking re-election, and Dreier already has had one waiver of GOP rules limiting a chair to six years.

Five California Democrats now are ranking members and could become chairs: Miller, of Martinez, on Education and the Workforce; Tom Lantos, of San Mateo, on International Relations; Henry Waxman, of Los Angeles, on Government Reform; Jane Harman, of El Segundo, on the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; and Juanita Millender-McDonald, of Torrance, on House Administration.

The Select Intelligence Committee churns its membership periodically, and Harman -- a member since 1996 -- might or might not remain. But Veterans Affairs Committee ranking member Lane Evans, D-Ill., didn't seek re-election, and Rep. Bob Filner, D-Chula Vista, is the next Democrat in line.

Ransdell also noted Ways and Means, Appropriations and Rules are perhaps the most influential committees -- controlling how the House raises and spends money and considers bills -- and probably won't be up for California Democrats' control.

But California need not fear, Sabato said: "When you come from a state that has by far the largest House delegation, you really don't have to worry all that much -- if you're going to have the speaker, it makes up for a loss of committee chairs."

Some Democratic national priorities could benefit California -- especially its high-poverty areas, large youth population and huge stake in immigration policy -- even if helping the state "is not something that's actively pursued in an overt fashion, as a stated goal unto itself," Ransdell said.

The Democrats' "New Direction for America" involves phasing troops out of Iraq; adopting the 9/11 Commission's homeland security recommendations; raising the minimum wage; making college tuition tax-deductible, cutting student loan interest rates and expanding Pell Grants; reducing foreign-oil dependence by pursuing alternative energy while ending tax giveaways to oil companies; letting the government negotiate lower Medicare prescription prices; promoting stem-cell research; and preventing Social Security's privatization while protecting workers' pensions from corporate corruption.

They also want to roll back President Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy and use that money to pay down the deficit.

How effective Pelosi would be in implementing all this remains to be seen, Sabato said.

"We're headed for a period of gridlock and everybody knows it -- you can't judge her on that basis," he said, adding that she has held her party together admirably as Minority Leader but "it's easier when you're out of power."

Once Democratic committee chairs settle back into power, it'll be harder to keep them from going their own ways, he said.
Contact Josh Richman at jrichman@angnewspapers.com.

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