Thread: TX: Getting Latinos to vote GOP becomes an uphill battle

Mercedes Olivera molivera@dallasnews.com

Getting Latinos to vote GOP becomes an uphill battle

When the comprehensive immigration reform bill died in the Senate last week, many believe the GOP's successful courtship of Latino voters also stalled.

Will President Bush be the last GOP president to garner 40 percent of the Latino vote – as he did in 2004 – for the near future?

Some political observers now predict Republicans may be able to muster only 20 percent to 30 percent of those voters in the coming presidential election. Others, however, don't see Latino voters as being any different from the rest of the U.S. electorate.

Latino issues are American issues. When U.S. voters moved to the right, so did Latinos, though never in any large numbers. Latinos consistently vote Democratic, as much as 60 percent or more.

Republicans had always stressed the "natural ties" between Republicans and Latinos – family and religious values, entrepreneurship and social traditions.

But much of that rhetoric changed during the heated national debate over immigration. And Latinos felt much of that heat directed at them.

"If there was any movement towards the Republican Party by Latinos, this [failure to pass the immigration bill] would have stopped it dead in its tracks," said Andy Hernandez, a Latino politics scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

"But the case is overstated. Immigration reform is not the only reason. The war in Iraq has had a huge impact on the Latino community. The war and immigration have had a cluster-bomb effect on the GOP."

Harold Stanley, a history professor at Southern Methodist University, agreed and said it's uncertain what the defeat of immigration reform this year will mean to the 2008 election.

"The immigration marches of spring 2006 vividly showed that political potential of the Latino community. Yet that potential has been more latent than actual," Dr. Stanley said.

"Other issues matter greatly to Latinos – education, jobs, the war in Iraq, the war on terror – and concerns with immigration alone neither displace these other issues nor paper over the divisions on these other issues."

Jason Villalba, chairman of the Dallas chapter of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, said he opposed the failed immigration bill because it was "too complicated and didn't solve the problems of immigration."

But he acknowledged it would be "an uphill battle to convince Hispanics to come out and vote for the GOP" in 2008.

"We got the largest number of Hispanic votes in 2000 and 2004, but we won't see it this time," he said. "And I don't know how to prevent this."

But he believes that concern over border security among the general electorate will trump losing Latino voters.

Mr. Hernandez said security is also a concern for many Latinos, but for a different reason.

"Many Latino legal immigrants don't want their situation threatened here in the U.S.," he said. "And they have always been practical. That's what's driving the increase in citizenship applications now."

And while many Latino leaders now stress citizenship as crucial for future political growth, it may not necessarily be felt at the ballot box next year.

Citizenship applications are up 77 percent since January, and some attribute it to the fee increase slated to take effect at the end of this month.

The average waiting time for legal residents to become citizens, if all background checks and paperwork run smoothly, is now eight months, according to the Department of Homeland Security. But the surge in citizenship applications could cause unexpected delays in the process, as was seen with the surge in passport requests.

State Rep. Rafael AnchÃ*a, D-Dallas, said the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials has made citizenship a central focus as it promotes more Hispanic political progress.

But Mr. AnchÃ*a, who is chairman of the NALEO Educational Fund, said it was part of a two-pronged strategy among Hispanics.

The group also wants to register 18-year-olds, who were jolted out of complacency last year.

"Young voters [18 to 29 years old] are increasing as a size of the electorate, and are increasingly politically motivated by issues like the war in Iraq, college affordability and the economy," he said.

But "in the case of young Latinos, the immigration issue has awakened an entire generation."

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This article is a clarion call for us to insure that everyone we know gets registered AND VOTES. There is a dearth of voters in the 18-25 year-olds. If you know one, make it your responsibility to nag them until they follow through.

Looking at mexico . They don't seem to have much to brag about as far as their voting is concerned . Now they will self destruct in America and drag everybody else down with them .

The point...if your "Latino" you have to support illegal immigration? What if your an American first? Seems to me the only people who really support illegal immigration have a personal stake or something to gain personally by allowing it that said, most supporters likely can't vote because they are illegal aliens themselves. The only way supporting law enforcement could hurt the Republicans is with an amnesty, then all the illegals might hold it against them.