Why G.O.P. Senators Won't Play on Immigration Reform

By Jay Newton-Small
Washington Monday, May. 10, 2010

(photo) Protesters march through downtown Boston to demand immigration reform and denounce the controversial Arizona immigration law.
Michael Dwyer / AP

Wanted: a Republican senator willing to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats and the Administration on a bipartisan bill that's already half done on immigration reform. The Democrats have been scrambling to find such a brave soul since Republican Senator Lindsey Graham left the talks after Dems shelved a global warming bill he'd been working on. Democratic negotiators Chuck Schumer of New York, Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have even unveiled the bones of the bill that they'd hammered out with Graham in the hopes of luring another Republican on board. "What [Republicans] said before the Democrats produced the framework is that we need to see the paper," says Frank Sharry, director of America's Voice, an immigration advocacy group. "Now that they've seen the paper they seem to be finding other reasons not to sign on."

Of the 23 Senate Republicans who voted for immigration reform in 2006, five have since lost their seats, six have retired, one switched parties, four more are retiring this year. Meanwhile, Bob Bennett of Utah just saw his nomination as G.O.P. candidate upended by the state's Tea Party; and John McCain of Arizona is facing the toughest Senate race of his career. In fact, many in the immigration world believe that Graham walked away from the negotiating table in part to protect his dear friend McCain, who can ill-afford a partisan brawl on immigration. The fact that McCain co-authored and voted for the 2006 comprehensive reform bill is what got him into such hot water with Arizona Republican primary voters in the first place.

(See pictures of immigration detention in Arizona.)

So, immigration groups are left with wooing retiring Republicans senators Ohio's George Voinovich of Ohio and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire. They're also working on the two moderate Senators from Maine and Alaska's Lisa Murkowski: all three voted for the 2006 bill. Obama called Republican Senators Scott Brown, Lugar, George LeMieux (a Florida Republican who is finishing Mel Martinez's term until Sunshine State voters pick a permanent replacement), Murkowski and Gregg from Air Force One last month — but so far no one has signed on. "Although Senator Gregg is interested in fixing our broken immigration system and especially encouraging talented people to come here legally, he does not support any initiative promoting comprehensive reform until the President and this Administration get serious about controlling our borders," said Laena Fallon, explaining Gregg's continued reluctance to negotiate.

To be fair, the first eight pages of the 22-page framework is about beefing up border security and the Obama Administration has exceeded Bush Administration efforts on border control. Last year saw the highest number of people ever deported: 387,790 up from 116,782 in 2001 and 349,041 in 2008. Thus far this year some 185,887 people have been deported, a record pace that, if maintained, will nearly double the number of deportations in 2010 to 604,133. The Administration has also doubled the number of agents assigned to the Border Enforcement Security Task Forces and tripled intelligence analysts along the southwest border.

(Watch TIME's video "Illegal Immigration by Sea.")

In fact, the Obama Administration has gone so far to the right on enforcement that some immigrant rights groups, already peeved at the lack of action on comprehensive immigration reform, are calling for a boycott the 2010 elections. It is a powerful threat. Latino voters are credited with helping Obama flip red states in the 2008 elections: Florida, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. And Democratic candidates in close races in those states and in California, Texas and Arizona are hoping for similar high levels of Hispanic turn out as Dems look at potentially losing more than 30 House seats.

To underline their clout, Latino groups are launching a massive voter registration push. "We were so focused on the census up until now and the Arizona law just blind-sided us," says Maria Teresa Kumar, executive director of Voto Latino. "In June we're starting voter registration effort — that wasn't originally supposed to start until September." They're also joined by unions, faith based groups such as the Catholic Church. Businesses are also seeking clarity on the issue and an increasing number of law enforcement groups are unhappy with the patchwork of local regulations being developed in the vacuum of federal action. "The immigrant and Latino communities are looking very closely at what's going on whether you're a Democrat or Republican," says Eliseo Medina, the Service Employee's International Union's international executive VP. "What you do between now and November is going to be very determinative of how people are going to vote."

(Read "Arizona Gears Up for a Protracted Immigration Fight.")

Time is running out. President Obama on Wednesday said he'd like the Senate debate on immigration to begin this year, essentially conceding that it was unlikely to finish before the midterm elections. "The window of opportunity is beginning to close. If we don't have a bipartisan breakthrough in the next few weeks it's going to go from being a possibility to being a wait-until-next-year," Sharry says. Which means that Schumer and his colleagues will have risked unveiling a premature bill a year before actual legislative action, giving opponents a year to rip the compromise apart. Already that's happening with groups on both sides expressing outrage: immigrant groups hate the idea of worker ID cards and conservatives have pinned the label "amnesty" on provisions that give the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the country a pathway to citizenship.

But if the immediate danger is to Democrats seeking Hispanic votes this November, the longer-term danger is to Republicans if they're perceived as blocking the legislation. The Arizona law, authored and passed by a Republican-controlled legislature and a Republican governor — means that the GOP starts this cycle with a black eye with the Hispanic community. "There's a great deal of pressure in the Republican Party to address it and once and for all move it off the table so they can start repairing their relationship with the Latino community," says Clarissa Martinez de Castro, director of immigration and national campaigns at the National Council of La Raza, one of the country's largest Hispanic advocacy groups. "Not doing so sets them on a suicidal course going into a presidential election."

(See pictures of the border fence rising in the southwest.)

(See pictures of Republican memorabilia.)

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