Thread: Iowa Poll: Romney Back Up By Three Among "Highly Likely

But still trails Huckabee by three among "likely voters."
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Posted: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 6:27 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Edwards, Polls
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In an InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa, Edwards leads among (977) likely voters 30-26-24 over Clinton and Obama. Edwards is also the clear second choice winner, 42-29-28 over Clinton and Obama. This is the first poll to show Edwards solely in the lead in Iowa since July.

Among highly likely caucus goers (of which there are 633), though, the three are deadlocked: Obama 27, Edwards 26, Clinton 24. Edwards again wins second choice, 42-31-27 over Clinton and Obama. The poll was conducted Dec. 16-17 and has a margin of error of 3% for the likely voters section and 4% for the highly likely voters section.

On the Republican side, among (833) likely voters, here are the numbers: Huckabee 28, Romney 25, Thompson 10, McCain 9, Paul 6, Giuliani 6. Among (41 highly likely voters, Romney leads with 28%, then Huckabee 25, Thompson 11, McCain 7, Paul 6, Giuliani 5, Tancredo 4.

A national Diageo/Hotline poll shows a narrowing between the Democrats and a tight race on the Republican side. The Dems: Clinton 35%, Obama 30, Edwards 14. The Republicans: Giuliani 21%, Huckabee 17, Romney 13, Thompson 11, McCain 10, Paul 7.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/ ... 24511.aspx

You can't tell who's going to win a horse race even 3/4 the way around the track. A lot can change in a short amount of time as we have seen happen before.

As I said in another thread, most Republicans who support Ron Paul aren't even a part of these polls because they sat out the '04 and '06 elections.