Thread: Rasmussen: New Hampshire: McCain 32% Romney 31%

Election 2008: New Hampshire Republican Primary
New Hampshire: McCain 32% Romney 31%
Monday, January 07, 2008

John McCain is facing an unusual two-front challenge as he seeks to hang on to a narrow lead in New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary. He is competing with Mitt Romney for votes in the Republican Primary. At the same time, he is competing with Barack Obama for Independent voters who can choose to vote in either the Republican or the Democratic Primary on Tuesday.

At the moment, he is losing ground to Obama which is causing him problems with Romney. On Friday, the Rasmussen Reports survey found that Independent voters were likely to make up 32% of the Republican Primary electorate. That dropped to 27% of Sunday. As a result, McCain’s lead over Romney has dipped to a statistically insignificant one-point advantage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain earning 32% of the vote while Mitt Romney attracts 31%.

The survey was conducted on Saturday and Sunday. All interviews were conducted before Sunday night’s debate. Romney leads by five percentage points among Republicans while McCain leads by thirteen among Independents likely to take part.

The current poll shows Mike Huckabee with 11% of the vote, Rudy Giuliani close behind at 10%, and Ron Paul at 8%. Fred Thompson earns 3%, some other candidate attracts 2%, and 4% are not sure.

The race remains too close to call partly because of questions about how many Independents will participate, but also because a significant percentage of voters could change their mind. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Romney supporters are “certainâ€

A Win in New Hampshire Would Make McCain the Clear Frontrunner
Monday, January 07, 2008

After months of using words like muddled and unclear to describe the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, the results from Iowa and impending New Hampshire Primary may finally provide some clarity.

If John McCain wins in New Hampshire, he will be the GOP frontrunner in a race with just two other serious contenders—Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. Those three candidates are currently leading the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Giuliani would be the stronger challenger but still the underdog. Huckabee would be well positioned to pick up many delegates, especially in the Southern states. But, his path to the nomination would be challenging.

As for Mitt Romney, if he loses New Hampshire, he might try to continue and certainly has the personal financial resources to do so. But, if a former Massachusetts Governor can’t win in his neighboring state, he can’t win the nomination.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that McCain will win in the Granite State. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows McCain and Romney are in a very tight race. Romney is getting help from an unusual source—Barack Obama and his strong showing in the state’s Democratic Primary. Obama is is drawing Independent voters who might otherwise participate in the Republican Primary. Independent voters are far more likely to support McCain than Romney.

If Mitt Romney wins the first-in-the-nation Primary, his campaign will be able to continue and the GOP race will continue without a clear frontrunner. A decisive victory by Romney would give him a solid boost heading into Michigan for the January 15 Primary. A more narrow Romney victory would probably be the best news of all for Giuliani.

For Fred Thompson it doesn’t make much difference who wins in New Hampshire. He appears set to take his campaign to South Carolina and give it one last try in what should be friendly territory for him.

Whatever the results in New Hampshire, the impact will be measured first by the Rasmussen Markets. Within 45 minutes of the Iowa caucus, the markets had already signaled that John McCain was one of the big winners. By Sunday morning McCain was seen as the most likely Republican nominee with a slight advantage over Giuliani. Current market data shows McCain with a 84.3% chance of winning the nomination and Giuliani with a 0.1% chance.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day. Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.

In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.

For the seven days ending January 6, 2007 show that Mike Huckabee and John McCain each earn 19% of the vote while Mitt Romney earns 17%, Rudy Giuliani attracts 14% and Fred Thompson is at 12%. Ron Paul’s support for the week is at 5%, Duncan Hunter earns 2% and 13% are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_cont ... al_primary

If John McCain wins in New Hampshire, he will be the GOP frontrunner in a race with just two other serious contenders—Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee.

WHAT A NIGHTMARE! I WILL BE PRAYING REALLY HARD FOR THIS NOT TO HAPPEN!