January 30, 2018
by Jeremy Segal

A new poll released Tuesday, shows a whopping 71% of President Trump’s strongest supporters staunchly oppose any border security deal that includes DACA amnesty, and could cost the president tremendous support from his base.

Ear to the Ground Listening Project, a collaboration of academics, market researchers and policy experts conducted the panel survey of 6,883 Trump supporters between January 12, 2018, and January 25, 2018. The survey reveals numerous insights about how President Trump’s strongest supporters feel right now.

The survey indicates President Trump has tremendous support and confidence from his base, but congressional Republicans are in the doghouse with a pathetic 16% approval from the president’s supporters.

Even more noteworthy, however, is President Trump may not be as bullet proof with his base as he believes. If he moves forward on an immigration deal that includes any form of amnesty it could cost him more than 48% of support from his base, according to the poll.

Key insights from the survey:

*Support for President Trump, on average, has gone UP since Election Night 2017 (from a weighted average of 3.98 on a 5-point scale to 4.06)
*84% said they are following immigration news “very closely”
*87% approve of President Trump’s handling of immigration reform
*16% of current President Trump supporters approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling immigration (and 49% disapprove)
*34% of the panel respondents claim to be independent or not Republican

Immigration Reform Specifics:

*71% said it was “extremely” or “very important” to eliminate DACA as part of immigration reform efforts
*If Congress passed immigration reform that removed DACA but incorporated a form of Amnesty, 62% would not support it, 7% would, and 32% are unsure if they would or would not
*When asked if they would support President Trump if he signs an immigration reform bill that includes a form of amnesty, only 3% said “definitely yes,” 13% said “probably yes,” 36% said “might or might not, 26% said “probably not,” and 22% said “definitely not.”
*Top 3 Immigration Topics, in order of preference, are: Border Wall (1), Chain Migration (2), E-Verify / Employment Verification (3), DACA (4), and Amnesty (5)
*Given a choice of 5 immigration-reform philosophies, the most popular was to “keep out people likely to present a danger to American citizens” (41%), then “admit people only who are compatible with our culture and way of life” (28%), and “protect Americans’ jobs” (17%)

“Trump supporters have not waned in their confidence that the President will follow-through on his campaign promises, and now we have insight into why they feel immigration is so important. A great part of their motivation is shown to be a concern over security of our nation and fitting in with the American culture, not solely self-sufficiency,” said research director Anne Sorock.