Thread: Ames Straw Poll Results

14302 votes cast
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11th--John Cox 41 votes
10th--John McCain 101 votes
9th Duncan Hunter 174 votes
8th Rudy Giuliani 183 votes
7th Fred Thompson 203 votes
6th Tommy Thompson 1039 votes
5th Ron Paul 1305 votes
4th Tom Tancredo 1961 votes
3rd Sam Brownback 2192 votes
2nd Mike Huckabee 2587 votes
1st Mitt Romney 4516 votes

That's too bad. I really thought a 2nd place finish was possible. He was only 500 away.

I'll never forget Brownback turning his vote around at the last minute. I don't understand why those Iowans voted for him.

Don't know much about Huckabee other than he approved some pretty bad pro-illegal legislation in Arkansas.

http://mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogsp ... ation.html

By David Robinson
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK - Gov. Mike Huckabee got to speak directly Wednesday with Arkansans who [don't understand] his positions on immigration.

One caller to the "Ask the Governor" radio program on the Arkansas Radio Network accused Huckabee of ignoring the law when it comes to illegal immigrants.

"Did you not take an oath to uphold the laws of this land?" asked Chris, a caller from Little Rock. "Absolutely," Huckabee replied.

"OK, then why would you turn a blind eye to illegal immigrants invading our country and coming in and basically breaking our laws?' the caller asked.

Huckabee said that he wasn't, and that he believes illegal aliens who try to vote or try to apply for welfare benefits should be arrested.

"If they're caught as illegal aliens, I don't have any problem with sending them back," Huckabee said.

But the governor did not back down on his positions in support of certain benefits for the children of illegal aliens, such as allowing prenatal care for pregnant immigrants and his proposal to offer scholarships to undocumented children who graduate from an Arkansas high school.

He also criticized Senate Bill 206 by Sen. Jim Holt, R-Springdale, that would impose new restrictions on illegal immigrants in Arkansas. He said the bill could hurt the state's ability to recruit industries based in countries outside the U.S., such as Toyota or Nestle, a Swiss company.

"If we send a message that essentially if you don't look like us, talk like us and speak like us we don't want you, it has tremendous economic repercussions," Huckabee said.

Huckabee also sought to dispel certain perceptions about the benefits that illegal immigrants are getting in Arkansas.

Huckabee repeated to several callers that illegal immigrants do not receive welfare benefits or food stamps or free health care. They do get free public education for their children, but that's required under the Arkansas Constitution, Huckabee said.

"And frankly I think we would want to make sure that their kids were getting an education because an educated society is a society that can work and do a job and do a better job and make money," Huckabee said.

As for allowing immigrants to receive free prenatal care, Huckabee said that's part of his pro-life sentiment as well as that of Amendment 65 of the state constitution, which says that Arkansas considers life to begin at conception.

"I believe that because it's a human life, then by our law and by our constitution even that unborn child is an Arkansas citizen because he or she is going to be born in this state," Huckabee said. "The prenatal care for the entire pregnancy costs less than one-third of what one day in the neonatal unit at Children's Hospital would cost if the child has complications at birth."

Glad to See ROn Paul in the Middle of the Pack.

Mike Huckabee on illegal immigration: Part 2

Monday, July 03, 2006
The Case Against Deportation

There are a lot of reasons deportation is not an option in dealing with America's illegal immigrant problem -- 12 million-plus reasons.

While deportation is the preferred choice of many conservatives, the fact is they have just not thought about the implications of this course of action. There are three major issues that would have to be addressed:

Enforcement - how would the U.S. physically round-up, process and transport millions of people? Many (perhaps most) would actively avoid being caught. And on top of that, there would be massive legal and social issues trying to sort out the tangle of blended familes consisting of illegal parents with children who are legal citizens, and the like. It would take decades, a force of immigration officers larger than the U.S. military, a legion of attorneys, doctors, nurses and bureaucrats, hundreds of thousands of vans, busses, and aircraft and all the people to provide support. And what about border issues? Has anyone considered the possibility the home countries of these people might not want them back?

Financial - all this would cost billions upon billions of dollars. How would we pay for it?

Political - Remember Elian Gonzales? During the Clinton administration, the forced deportation of just one little boy caused massive international outcry and embarrassed Americans from coast to coast. Just imagine the image you see above being repeated millions of times over. That's NOT America.

The solution to the illegal immigrant problem is not going to be easy. Mike Huckabee knows that. He also understands the enormous problems associated with dealing with a deportation scenario. It can't be done. We don't have the manpower or money. And most importantly, we don't have the will as a nation to execute a gestapo-style round-up and deportation of millions of frightened and crying men, women and children.

The best possible solution: 1) Real border security. We must stop the in-flow. And 2) A system whereby those who are already here are required to pay a penalty and become legal citizens over a period of time. Some call that "amnesty" but it isn't. Amnesty is a free pass. By requiring the payment of a fine and going through the legal process of citizenship and naturalization, amnesty is off the table.

PART 3:

Sunday, February 11, 2007
Illegal Immigration - Stephanopoulos Interview
Want to know what Mike Huckabee's position on illegal immigration is? Here's an excerpt from his interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC's This Week (Feb. 11, 2007):

Stephanopoulos: Let's talk about immigration. I was struck by something in USA Today this morning, a headline that says, "Immigration Becomes KKK Rallying Point." You've said that you believe that there is some racism behind the immigration debate today.
What did you mean by that?

Huckabee: Well, first of all, I didn't mean that everybody who has some anxiety about immigration is a racist. And that was one of those things that suddenly blew up and people said, "Oh, he accused us all of being racists." Absolutely not. There are a lot of people who are concerned. I'm concerned. I'm concerned that our borders are porous and we're allowing people to come in and out without any real check as to who they are, where they're going, why they're here, do they have a communicable disease or a criminal background? We need to know those things.

Stephanopoulos: But you've also said we're going to be judged by how we treat the illegals who are here right now.

Huckabee: We shouldn't have amnesty where we just say, "Fine, everybody's good, we're going to let it go." We should have a process where people can pay the penalties, step up and accept responsibility for not being here legally. But here's the point. The objective is not to be punitive. The objective is to make things right. Right for us. Right for them. And what I have objected to in the past is when we are punishing the children for the laws that maybe their parents have broken. I do have a problem with that.

Originally Posted by realbsball

That's too bad. I really thought a 2nd place finish was possible. He was only 500 away.

I'll never forget Brownback turning his vote around at the last minute. I don't understand why those Iowans voted for him.

Don't know much about Huckabee other than he approved some pretty bad pro-illegal legislation in Arkansas.

Well, I personally hoped Ron Paul would at least make it into the top 5.
Earlier today he was very firm when he told supporters that whatever the results, his campaign will continue and that this was just the beginning.

As far as Huckabee and Brownback, I've read that the big issues for Iowans is illegal immigration (that's why Tancredo came in 4th) and abortion - (Huckabee is a former minister.) Plus, I also read that Brownback ran a very agressive pro-life campaign. He had an automated phone system calling up Iowans about his pro-life stance vs the flip flopping of Romney on this issue. I guess his efforts paid off. Yet don't the Iowans realize that he's for illegal immigration?

I'm new at this so I don't know what this poll means in terms of long term potential success. I've read from other supporters that considering Paul had practically no name recognition at all in Iowa, his coming in 5th is pretty good. Anyone with more experience in these straw polls want to help enlighten the rest of us about what all this could mean?

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs. ... 001&lead=1

This is election is going to be about illegal immigration. I don't think it will be about the war like the Dems are saying. They are wrong.

Originally Posted by Politicalactivist

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070811/NEWS/70811009/1001&lead=1

Will post the article, some people's connections take too long or they don't want to click on links.

Romney wins, Huckabee in 2nd
THOMAS BEAUMONT AND JENNIFER JACOBS
REGISTER STAFF WRITERS

46 comments
August 11, 2007

Ames, Ia. — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney emerged on top at Iowa GOP’s straw poll Saturday in Ames.

The win boosted the former Massachusetts governor’s standing as the party’s frontrunner in Iowa, although attendance at this first show of Iowa campaign strength appeared to fall short of expectations.

Candidate Votes Pct.
1. Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2. Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo 1,960 13.7%
5. Ron Paul 1,305 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson 1,039 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani* 183 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
10. John McCain* 101 0.7%
11. John Cox 41 0.3%
*Did not attend


Romney, who heavily outspent his opponents preparing for the fundraising event, received 4,516 votes or 31.6 percent.

Roughly 30,000 to 33,000 Republicans attended the state party fundraiser on the Iowa State University campus, short of organizers’ goal of exceeding the crowd of 38,000 who attended the most recent straw poll in 1999.

A factor in the lower turnout was the absence of some of the field’s better-known candidates — former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and likely candidate Fred Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee had said his campaign’s future depended on a strong showing in Ames. He finished in second place, with 2,587 votes or 18.1 percent. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas placed third with 2,192 votes, 15.3 percent after campaigning aggressively to be the choice of the Iowa GOP’s influential social conservatives.

“Obviously this was an incredible day and victory for us,â€

Here's some perspective on the straw poll:

Ready, Ames, Fire: The Iowa Straw Poll
Â*
NPR.org, August 1, 2007 ·

There are some 160 days, give or take, until the Iowa caucuses. That's the first event on the presidential nominating calendar that often sets the tone for the rest of the campaign season.

A less-understood event comes much sooner: the Iowa Straw Poll. Held in Ames, it's a quadrennial effort by the state Republican Party to bring the GOP candidates into the state to compete in a poll that has nothing to do with delegates but a lot to do with headlines and publicity. It also says something about a candidate's organizational ability to get his or her supporters to turn out and take part in the poll. But in addition to all that, it's a fundraising gimmick by the Iowa GOP. To participate, each person must pay $35. It makes a lot of money for the Iowa Republican Party. What's to stop a well-financed campaign from "buying" votes? Nothing. And that's the rub.

Two leading candidates, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, are skipping the event. Intentionally or not, their decision steals some of the thunder from Mitt Romney's campaign. The former Massachusetts governor had been spending freely in the Hawkeye State, and many saw him as the likely straw poll winner. That hasn't deterred the other Republican candidates — Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, businessman John Cox, and Reps. Duncan Hunter (CA), Ron Paul (TX) and Tom Tancredo (CO) – from participating. The event takes place on Saturday, Aug. 11.

Also on the sidelines will be Fred Thompson, the actor and former Tennessee senator, who is not expected to officially get into the race until after Labor Day. His name will appear on the straw poll ballot, but there is no indication that his campaign – or whatever it's called – is doing anything to affect the Ames result.

So I know I just called the straw poll little more than a fundraising scheme by the party. But it is much more. It's surviving the expectations game that the political cognoscenti have set up for the candidates. Both Brownback and Huckabee are battling among one another to be the standard bearer of social conservatives – it's already become personal – and whoever fares worse on Aug. 11 could pay a price. Similarly, Tommy Thompson has made Iowa a make-or-break state for him, but a dismal showing in the straw poll might keep him from getting to the January 2008 finish line. And what if Ron Paul lives up to his supporters' expectations and finishes ahead of some of the better-known and better-financed candidates? The repercussions are endless.

If it sounds silly that this event could have major consequences, all you need to do is check the history books.

1999: Unlike earlier examples (see below), this was one case where straw poll expectations were met. Texas Gov. George W. Bush was the front-runner going into the straw poll vote, and he won it, though his margin against wealthy publisher Steve Forbes was narrower than expected. The second-place finish of Forbes, who outspent everyone else at the event, gave his candidacy momentum, as did the third-place showing of former Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole.

Conservative activist Gary Bauer finished fourth and TV commentator Pat Buchanan came in fifth. Sixth place was deemed unacceptable by the guy who finished there: former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, who had worked the straw poll longer than anyone else. He withdrew from the race two days later. Candidates who performed even worse – Alan Keyes (seventh place), former Vice President Dan Quayle (eighth) and Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (ninth) – all remained as candidates, but none proved to be viable for the nomination.

1995: Bob Dole was the clear GOP front-runner; after all, he had already won the Iowa caucuses in 1988. But in the straw poll, Dole could do no better than tie Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas. Each received 2,582 votes. While some in the Dole camp blamed the showing on complacency, Dole himself said the straw poll results had nothing to do with how his campaign was performing in Iowa. Dole did go on to win the Iowa caucuses in 1996 — by a very unimpressive margin — but he lost in New Hampshire. He won the nomination, but his weakness in Iowa foreshadowed his weakness as a general election candidate against President Clinton that year.

1987: Heading into the '88 nomination battle, Vice President George Bush was viewed as the front-runner. He had all the money and the key Iowa endorsements. Sen. Bob Dole, from neighboring Kansas, was hoping that his Midwest connections would help his cause. No one foresaw the victory of Pat Robertson, the televangelist. Robertson, who had already done surprisingly well in the early skirmishes in Michigan, won the straw poll with 1,293 votes, compared to 958 for Dole. Bush finished third, with 864 votes, followed by Rep. Jack Kemp of New York (520), ex-Delaware Gov. Pete du Pont (160), and former Secretary of State Alexander Haig (12).

Iowa Republican officials were stunned, saying that the people who showed up for Robertson were completely new to the political process. The results clearly shook the Bush camp, though it's not clear to what extent: At the February 1988 Iowa caucuses, Bush again finished third (Dole first, Robertson second). But Bush did go on to win the nomination and the presidency.

1979: Not much attention was paid to the straw poll that year. But George H.W. Bush outworked, out-hustled and outspent front-runner Ronald Reagan at the straw poll, winning with 35.7 percent over a field that also included former Texas Gov. John Connally, Sens. Howard Baker of Tennessee and Bob Dole of Kansas, and Illinois congressmen Phil Crane and John Anderson. Bush beat Reagan again the following year at the caucuses. Still, Reagan breezed to the nomination.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... d=12424159