Thread: Census heralds political change in California

Posted at 10:14 PM on Saturday, Mar. 12, 2011
By John Ellis / And Kurtis Alexander / The Fresno Bee



California's newly released census numbers herald a change in the state's political power base, as congressional and state legislative seats shift from strongly Democratic coastal areas to the Republican-leaning interior.

The San Joaquin Valley -- a longtime Republican region that has seen rampant growth over the past decade -- stands to gain a seat in Congress and several in the California Legislature, political experts say.

But as tantalizing an opportunity as this may seem for the GOP, the party's inland strongholds aren't certain to remain safely Republican. In the San Joaquin Valley, the population growth has been almost exclusively Hispanic, a voting bloc that has yet to warm to the party. Meanwhile, the Valley's white population has shrunk in most political districts. They are leaving CALIFORNIA
Analysts say this doesn't mean the Valley will swing from the right side of the political spectrum to the left. Rather, some say, a growing Hispanic electorate could nudge the region more to the center. And the shift is likely to be gradual. But already, political insiders are strategizing.

"There is definitely a continuing need for Republicans to find a more effective way to connect with the Hispanic populations. It's something we've obviously struggled with for a long time," said Modesto Republican Dave Cogdill, a former state legislator.
The state's new political districts will be drawn later this year by an independent commission -- using the decennial census to rebalance voter representation among California's 53 congressional, 40 Senate and 80 Assembly districts.

The inland growth means more seats will be designated to places like the Valley.

Ron Nehring, chairman of the California Republican Party, is optimistic his party will hang onto seats and leverage the growth to the party's advantage.

"The overall trend is favorable for Republicans ... There will be more districts in currently Republican-held areas," he said. "[But] whether that translates into more Republican representation will be determined by how the lines are drawn."

Because Hispanics tend to be culturally conservative yet supportive of Democrats, they present opportunity for both parties, said Fred Keeley, a member of the nonpartisan government reform group California Forward and a former Democratic lawmaker from Santa Cruz.

To win Hispanics' vote, Republicans and Democrats can't cling to partisanship and will be more apt to embrace the political middle, Keeley said.

This trend, he added, will be reinforced by California's new open primary elections -- where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of their party -- which similarly encourages candidates to embrace more moderate views.

"I think Democrats will still be handily in charge of the Senate and Assembly, but there will be a bigger middle," Keeley said. "Democrats will still have progressive members from urban centers, San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose. [But] the growing areas like the San Joaquin Valley that have shifted and grown, I think, will send Democrats and Republicans that are more moderate."

The census numbers -- made public last week -- show just how much the region has changed over the past decade.

One example is the 34th Assembly District, which for a decade has proven to be reliably Republican. Tulare Republican Connie Conway now holds the seat.

The district -- which includes most of Tulare County, but also Inyo, a bit of Kern and a large part of San Bernardino counties -- added 63,803 residents, about 50% more than most. Now there are more than 75,000 additional Hispanics and close to 18,000 fewer white residents.




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Why do things only continue to get worse here?! It's so irritating to not have your voice heard. Nothing ever seems to improve for this stupid state - just gets worse and worse!