Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Is Consumer Confidence a Contrarian Indicator?

On Tuesday economists were surprised when the Consumer Confidence Index Plunged To 46. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... u.flR6PChM

The Conference Board’s confidence index slumped to 46, below the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, from 56.5 in January, a report from the New York- based private research group showed today.

Economists forecast the confidence index would decrease to 55 from a previously reported 55.9 January reading, according to the median of 68 projections in the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 50.9 to 59.

The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions decreased to 19.4, the lowest since February 1983, from 25.2.

Across the Atlantic, conditions are deteriorating as well. The New York Times has that story in Europe's Recovery Shows Signs of Stalling. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/busin ... ss&emc=rss

“Recovery in our largest export market — the euro area — appears to have stalled,