Forbes

Democrats’ Midterm Nightmare: Polls Suggest Party Could Face Historic Loss

Alison Durkee, Forbes Staff - Yesterday 9:59 AM


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Topline

Democrats could experience a “greater-than-average” loss in the midterm elections this November, new Gallup polling suggests, finding that voters’ satisfaction with the country and federal government are largely at record lows compared with other midterm years.
Key Facts

The Gallup poll, conducted May 2-22 among 1,007 U.S. adults, found only 41% approve of President Joe Biden’s job performance, 18% approve of Congress’ performance and 16% are “satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.”

Only 14% have a positive view of economic conditions right now and 46% rate the economy negatively, meaning Americans have a 32-point net negative view of the economy.

All of those metrics are at least 10 points below the average for midterm years, based on Gallup’s polling going back to 1974.

Americans have a 51% approval rating for the president on average during midterm election years, a 30% congressional approval rating, 35% satisfaction with the state of the U.S. and a nine-point net positive rating of the economy.

Other than presidential approval rating—where Biden’s 41% approval is tied with former President Donald Trump’s in 2018 and higher than President George W. Bush’s 38% in 2006—every metric recorded this year marks a historic low.

Gallup suggests the low ratings mean Democrats will likely lose seats in the election this year—as a president’s party typically does during the midterms—and their losses would likely be even larger than usual if these low ratings hold.

Big Number

23. That’s the average number of House seats a president’s party loses during the midterms, Gallup found based on data going back to 1974. Parties suffer even bigger losses when Americans aren’t satisfied with how things are going, though: Republicans lost 40 seats in 2018 when Americans had a 21% positive view of Congress and 41% approval of Trump, for instance, and Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 during Barack Obama’s presidency. Though Obama was slightly more popular than Biden (45% approval), Americans similarly had a 21% approval of Congress, 22% satisfaction with the U.S. and 31-point net-negative view of the economy that year.
What To Watch For

How Democrats will fare in the midterms. Republicans only need to flip five House seats to gain control of the chamber, and one seat in the Senate, where the parties are now evenly split. Based on current trends, Gallup projects the midterms will potentially be a “wave election” for the GOP and give them a “comfortable governing majority.”
What We Don’t Know

How things could change before November for Democrats. The Supreme Court is poised to likely overturn Roe v. Wade and let states ban abortion in the coming weeks, for instance, which recent polling has suggested may help galvanize Democrats and get more to the polls. Gun control could also come into play in the wake of a string of mass shootings, Gallup notes, as polling shows most Americans favor stricter gun measures and thus could be motivated to vote against Republicans who oppose them.
Key Background

Gallup’s polling comes as Biden has seen record-low approval ratings in recent months, with a FiveThirtyEight analysis finding 39.7% approve of him on average—the lowest share at any point during his presidency. The president has not had an average approval rating over 50% since August 2021. Other polls have similarly found Republicans are likely to have a clear advantage in the midterms, with a FiveThirtyEight poll analysis finding 45% of Americans prefer to vote for a Republican candidate in November versus a Democrat (42.6% would support the Democrat). A Morning Consult/Politico poll from May found Republicans were still more enthusiastic about voting in the midterms than Democrats (61% versus 54%), even after Politico leaked a draft opinion suggesting the Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade.


Democrats’ Midterm Nightmare: Polls Suggest Party Could Face Historic Loss (msn.com)