Thread: Egan-Jones Downgrades Germany From A+ To A, Outlook Negative - Mo Downgrade'n

Egan-Jones Downgrades Germany From A+ To A, Outlook Negative


Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/17/2013 15:41 -0400

The more you try to shut them up, the more they have to say...

Just out from Egan-Jones

4/17/2013: Federal Republic Of Germany: EJR lowered A+ to A (Neg.) (S&P: AAA) (3413Z GR)

Although Germany's credit metrics are respectable, the country has exposure to its banks and the weaker EU members. Deutche Bank has adjusted shareholders' equity to asset near 2% and might need EUR 100B of support. Via the ECB's Target 2, Germany is owed EUR700B of which perhaps 50% is collectible and then there is the banks' southern EMU exposures. Germany's debt to GDP was 80.6% as of 2011. However, increasing Germany's debt by EUR500B raises the adjusted debt to GDP to 100%. The deficit to GDP of .8% is reasonably strong. Unemployment is 6.9% but will probably rise as global economies continue to show weakness. The positive (EUR16.8B) balance of trade (per GFSO) and the positive EUR5.59B current account (per the OECD) help. Inflation has been moderate at 1.4% (per GFSO).

Chancellor Merkel continues to resist calls for EU bonds (shared liabs.) and money printing and is pushing for fiscal controls and the seniority of bailout funding. Germany is likely to be outvoted by other ECB members and therefore will have greater prospective exposure. Watch for the EFSF and the ESM morphing into banks (thereby depressing eventual recoveries) and a rise in the number of euros. Watch progress on the EU banking union. We used the IMF's data for Germany's debt which is greater than Eurostat's data. Downgrading.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...tlook-negative

European Stocks Plunge Most In Six Months

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/17/2013 11:46 -0400


Europe's 'Dow', the EuroStoxx 50, has suffered the biggest 4-day rout in 10 months as the broad Bloomberg 500 index plunged by the most in five months today amid terrible consumer, car registration, and economic collapse on the continent. DAX is at 4-month slows. Despite the bloodbath in European stocks, the ever-efficient European bond market (free to trade and totally un-manipulated) is now around unchanged on the week (while stocks are down 3-4%). European financials are leading the drop but it is broad-based. EURUSD also rolled back over nearing its biggest drop in 9 months. Swiss 2Y at 3 month lows. Bunds bid. European VIX surged to 5 week highs over 23%.

Worst 4-day run in 10 months in stocks...




but Sovereigns don't care


Charts: Bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ost-six-months