DEBKAfile Exclusive: Siniora’s Lebanese government breaks up, faces street disturbances after national unity talks collapse Saturday

November 12, 2006, 9:49 PM (GMT+02:00)

Five pro-Syrian Hizballah and Amal ministers walked out of Fouad Siniora’s government coalition Saturday, Nov. 11. Another two ministers, supporters of the pro-Syrian president Emil Lahoud, are on their way out. The two Shiite factions and the pro-Syrian Maronite leader Michel Aoun say their followers will take to the streets for demonstrations in Beirut and other Lebanese towns. It would only take a few shots, say DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources, to spark clashes between Syria’s adherents and opponents in Lebanon.

The crisis erupted when Siniora proposed convening the cabinet Monday, Nov. 13, to approve a bill for a special court to try suspects in the Feb. 2005 Hariri assassination. He intended to propose a panel of 5 Lebanese and 3 international judges to be appointed by the UN Secretary General.

But the plan was generally expected in Beirut to run foul of Syrian President Bashar Asad’s resistance to seeing his close relatives in the dock. In line are his young brother Gen. Maher Asad, his brother-in-law and chief of military intelligence Gen. Asaf Shawqat and other high officers. Syria instructed its supporters in Lebanon to topple the government if necessary to block legislation for this tribunal.

The failure of the unity talks in Lebanon is seen as the first sign of fallout in the Middle East after the Bush administration’s election defeat this week over its unpopular Iraqi policy. Iran, Syria and the radical Hamas leaders in Damascus are moving fast to take advantage of the Bush administration’s policy setback to sow unrest in Beirut and instability in the Middle East to raise the ante for their cooperation on Iraq. Next, they are expected to stall Western efforts to bring the warring Palestinian factions into a unity government.
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