Five economic clues to 2010 election

By EAMON JAVERS | 6/5/10 8:38 PM EDT

Yet again, it’s the economy, stupid. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36544.html

Political observers of every stripe agree it will be the deciding factor in November’s midterm elections. And between now and Election Day, there will be key milestones to measure just where the economy is heading — and perhaps more importantly, where voters think it is heading.

Here are five indicators that campaign strategists will be watching for:

1. August jobs report

The government’s monthly jobs reports have become the single most important proxy to measure the economic health of the nation and the political health of the Obama administration, with a significant portion of political Washington glued to computer screens at 8:30 a.m. on the first Friday of each month, waiting for the results.

Friday’s number, for example showed that the U.S. economy generated 431,000 jobs, a number that fell short of analysts’ expectations and cast doubt on whether the country is steadily digging itself out of a deep unemployment. Voters will also keep an eye on the unemployment rate, which ticked down to 9.7 percent in May, and they will be looking for signs of progress.

But the August jobs report — which comes out September 3rd — will likely set the tone for the fall political campaigns. A strong, upward trending number will mean the Obama administration and congressional Democrats can hit the campaign trail bragging that their policies are working. An anemic report, and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and other Congressional Republicans can — credibly — continue to complain, “Where are the jobs, Mr. President?â€