Focus shifts to November, independents as primaries end

By John Fritze, USA TODAY

MANCHESTER, N.H. — She has voted for Democrats most of her life, but Michele Despathy is considering a big change for this fall's midterm elections: supporting a conservative Republican in the state's competitive Senate race.

The 49-year-old independent voter isn't enthralled with New Hampshire's four GOP Senate candidates, but said she's leaning toward Republican Kelly Ayotte because she's even more fed up with Democrats this year — and that includes President Obama.

"He's taking us in the wrong direction," Despathy said of Obama. "And now the Republicans are seeing their chance."

Primaries wind down this week and major intraparty contests are set for today in New Hampshire, Delaware, Wisconsin and four other states. Attention is rapidly shifting to the Nov. 2 general election and to independent voters such as Despathy who will decide dozens of competitive races nationwide.

With control of Congress and 37 governorships at stake, Republicans are hoping to capitalize on discontent expressed not just by members of the "Tea Party" movement, but also centrist voters. A Gallup Poll shows 49% of independents plan to support a GOP candidate for Congress, compared with a third who say they will back a Democrat.

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Independents will play a pivotal role in competitive Senate races in Florida, Colorado and Ohio this year, but they are particularly important in New Hampshire, where four in 10 voters are not enrolled in a party. The state's remaining voters are evenly split between the Democratic and Republican parties.

Many of those independents have backed Democrats in recent elections, including in 2008, when Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, a former governor, beat Republican incumbent John Sununu for Senate. But this year, experts say, the independent vote is once again up for grabs.

"It's all about the independents," said Linda Fowler, a government professor at Dartmouth College. "In the general election, they'll be absolutely decisive."

The state, which Census data show has the fastest-growing population in New England, backed George W. Bush in 2000, Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008.

Ayotte, a former state attorney general, is locked in a four-way battle for the Republican nomination. A Sept. 12 Public Policy Polling survey showed her with a 7-percentage-point lead in the primary but indicated that Tea Party favorite Ovide Lamontagne was gaining ground. Republicans Jim Bender and Bill Binnie lag behind.

"We're just fed up," said 50-year-old Vince Caruana of Bedford, who was wearing a Reagan T-shirt and who explained that he is planning to support Lamontagne partly because of what he called Washington's failed efforts to jump-start the economy.

Similar Republican schisms are playing out across the country in primaries today. Delaware, New York and Maryland all feature races for Senate or governor in which a better-known Republican is being challenged by a candidate on the right who claims to be the "true conservative."

Whoever emerges from the heated elections in each state will have less than 50 days to switch gears to court a broader electorate that includes independents. In New Hampshire, the primary winner will face Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in November in a race the non-partisan Cook Political Report considers a tossup.

As Ayotte shook hands at a crowded town dump just outside of Manchester over the weekend, she said her campaign did not plan to fundamentally change its message if she's the nominee.

"The fiscal state of the country right now is an issue that Republicans, independents and Democrats care about," said Ayotte, who was endorsed in the primary by former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. "Spending too much money in Washington is what this election's about."

Hodes, whose district covers the western half of the state, including Concord, said GOP actions in Washington this year will hurt the Republican nominee. He cited this summer's debate over extending unemployment benefits, which was opposed by all but two Senate Republicans because the legislation was not paid for.

"Independents understand the importance of investing in the long term in the right way," Hodes said after a stop in Milford. "They understand the challenges we face are complex and that the simple rhetoric and fear the right is trying to use are a mirage."

For Cindy Hamel, a 53-year-old self-described Republican who said she voted for Obama in 2008, the back-and-forth has been disorienting as she tries to figure out who to support this November. She said she generally supports Obama's policies but that doesn't mean she's willing to send any more Democrats to Congress.

"He's doing a good job," Hamel said of Obama, "but we need some Republicans in there to balance things off."

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