GOP Poll: Obama Visits Backfiring In New Jersey?

October 30, 2009

A new survey from Neighborhood Research (R) shows that Republican Chris Christie has pulled ahead as voters are breaking late from the undecided column toward the challenger.

General Election Matchup
Christie 42 (+6 vs. last poll, 10/6-
Corzine 35 (unch)
Daggett 8 (-3)
Undecided 15 (-3)

The survey of 341 voters determined to be "definite" or "very likely" to show up on Election Day was conducted October 27-29.

Among just "definite" voters, Christie leads 44-35, which would show that Corzine needs still to motivate his base to turn out. Neighborhood Research's Rick Shaftan states in his polling memo that a visit by President Obama is not having the intended result.

"Christie's lead grew in each of the three days of the survey and could grow bigger if the Obama visit for Corzine, as we expect, backfires and galvanizes conservative support for Christie," he writes.

Shaftan, who ran the campaign of conservative Steve Lonegan in the GOP primary, adds that the Corzine campaign's attacks portraying Christie as an arch-conservative is also backfiring.

"All the movement has been in Christie's direction and the shift has been most pronounced with conservatives and voters in Northwestern New Jersey, the one section of the state Christie had underperformed," he adds.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politi ... kfiri.html