Jersey Shore sea level could rise 1.5 feet by 2050, Rutgers scientist predicts

Dec. 6, 2013

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Shawn Graul and his son, Jeremy, brave high winds to watch the surf in Point Pleasant Beach in October. A Rutgers University scientist predicts the Jersey shore sea level could rise 1 1/2 feet by 2050. / Asbury Park Press photo/MARK R. SULLIVAN

Written by
Todd B. Bates
and Kirk Moore

The sea level is expected to rise about 1.5 feet off the Jersey Shore by 2050, and a 10-year nor’easter in 2100 would cause more flooding in Atlantic City than happened during superstorm Sandy, a Rutgers scientist predicted Thursday.

Sea-level rise is not a disaster in the near-term, “but it is a concern that must be planned for,” said Kenneth G. Miller, a Rutgers University professor and lead author of a study published this week.

“And to a certain extent, it doesn’t matter if you believe in global warming or not,” said Miller, a professor of earth and planetary sciences. “We know that sea level is rising globally and we know that New Jersey is sinking.”

Researchers at Rutgers, including Miller, Robert Kopp, Benjamin Horton and James Browning, and Tufts University studied tide gauge and geological records and made projections on sea-level rise, according to a statement. Their studywas published in Earth’s Future, a new scientific journal.
Miller, who has a vacation home in Waretown, said, “It’s extremely likely that sea-level rise in the 20th century was faster than any other century in the last 4,000 years.”

About half of the sea level rise off the Jersey Shore is caused by global effects and about half is caused by land subsidence and compaction of coastal plain sediments, he said. By 2100, about 80 percent of the rise will be caused by global climate change, he predicted.

The researchers’ best estimates are that the sea level will rise 10 inches off the Jersey Shore from 2000 to 2030, about 1.5 feet by 2050 and about 3.5 feet by 2100, according to Miller. He stressed that higher or lower increases are possible.

In coastal New Jersey, the difference between minor and major tidal flooding is 2 feet, according to the National Weather Service.

The researchers also found that the approximately 8 inches of human-induced sea-level rise since 1900 exposed an additional 38,000 people in New Jersey and 45,000 people in New York City to flooding from Sandy, according to Miller.

“The Jersey Shore is going to have a difficult time with 3 feet” of sea-level rise, he said.

Miller, who has spent a career investigating sea-level changes over millennia, recently said at a Rutgers conference on post-Sandy lessons that sea-level rise findings show New Jersey should be raising its flood elevation levels for buildings beyond what the Federal Emergency Management Agency is doing with its new flood maps.

Sea level rise is “a serious issue, particularly going forward on the view of, let’s say, decades,” he said Thursday. “Certainly, in the view of 100 years, we don’t want to get too panicked because things can change,” including emissions that cause global warming.

Todd B. Bates: 732-643-4237; tbates@
njpressmedia.com; Kirk Moore: 732-557-5728; kmoore@njpress
media.com

http://www.app.com/article/20131205/NJNEWS/312050070/