November 10th, 2009

ME Poll: Snowe Vulnerable To Conservative Challenge

A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) tested Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) against a generic conservative challenger in 2012. The result: the moderate may not survive such a fight.

2012 Primary Election Matchup
Conservative Challenger 59
Snowe 31
Not Sure 10

Snowe boasts a strong approval rating among the larger electorate, 51 percent vs. 36 percent who disapprove. But, PPP says:

"Snowe's numbers are steady with independents but down with both Democrats and Republicans compared to three weeks ago, an indication of the perilous political position she finds herself in.

Republicans are mad at her for supporting any Democratic bill, while Democrats still are not completely happy with her because of her hesitance to support a public option."

Snowe is just halfway through her term, but these numbers suggest that Tim Pawlenty was not alone when he told MSNBC last week, "We want Olympia Snowe in the big tent but she can't say she's a Republican and vote against the Republican position much of the time."

Still, any conservative challenger would need to amass considerable resources against the established Mainer.

The survey of 1,133 likely voters was conducted before last week's election, from October 31-November 1. The subsample of 415 likely GOP primary voters had a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent. ... challenge/