12/16/2008

SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH STROBE TALBOTT

'The Obama Administration Will Be Very Cautious'

In a SPIEGEL interview, US foreign policy expert Strobe Talbott discusses the daunting foreign policy challenges facing Obama, the next president's desire to turn Americans into global citizens and the prospects for reinvigorated trans-Atlantic relations.


AP
Then Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Berlin on July 24: "America doesn't like being unpopular, but we will accept it if necessary. Still, we much prefer being liked."

SPIEGEL: Mr. Talbott, Barack Obama will be confronted with a world beset by problems when he takes office on Jan. 20. Which priorities should be at the top of his agenda?


Strobe Talbott: I know what will be uppermost on the agenda -- the international financial crisis. Still, there is real danger in simply extending the motto of the Clinton presidency: "It's the economy, stupid." It would be understandable for the new government to make its slogan, "It's the international economy, stupid," but I would still consider that to be risky and probably a mistake.

SPIEGEL: Does a more urgent problem exist in these times than protecting prosperity and social security?

Talbott: This is a deep crisis and if it is not solved, globalization will turn sour on us all. But there are some other urgent issues that cannot be put on the back burner: climate change, the danger of nuclear proliferation, world poverty, global health protection and the prevention of international pandemics. These issues should not be de-prioritized because of the financial crisis.

SPIEGEL: And are you confident that Obama won't lose his way in the thicket of wars and crises -- including Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, India, Georgia and Israel?

Talbott: I think Obama gets this big time. There are strong indications that he has an acute understanding of these problems. Just think of his remarkable election night speech at Grant Park in Chicago. He basically said, "We have some tough problems, do not expect them to be handled quickly, not in a year and maybe not in four years." He summed it up in three phrases: two wars, a planet in peril and an international financial crisis. I checked with people familiar with the way his mind works, and the order in which he put those was no accident.

SPIEGEL: How will Obama manage to take the country on an international journey that entails sacrifices for the American population? Effective climate protection, after all, requires smaller cars and less energy use.

Talbott: Obama is pretty good at reconciling the reconcilable. That does not mean that he can reconcile the irreconcilable, but he always finds ways to lower tensions and diminish polarization.

SPIEGEL: When it comes to culture, doesn't America -- with its large domestic market and fixation on itself -- seem like one of the least globalized countries in the Western world?


ABOUT STROBE TALBOTT
APStrobe Talbott, 62, served as assistant secretary of state in the Clinton administration and currently heads the respected Brookings Institution in Washington.

Talbott: There is no question that the population of the United States takes its sovereignty very seriously. We don't have a tradition of transnationalism like you do in Europe. I know many people on your continent who identify as European just as easily as they identify as being German, British or French. But this European culture is only 60 years old.

SPIEGEL: Will Obama attempt to shift from an American identity to a global one?

Talbott: He has already begun to do so. In his speech in Berlin's Tiergarten, he called himself a citizen of the world. This was sentiment for which Socrates was put to death. In the United States, nobody gets put to death for saying that, but as a self-characterization, it certainly has a radioactive touch.

SPIEGEL: He is not the first American to describe himself as citizen of the world.

Talbott: John F. Kennedy did it, and so did Ronald Reagan, but they both waited until they got to the White House. I think it is further evidence that Obama was out in front when he said the United States needs to think of itself as a communal citizen of the world. He will not, however, come at everyone with the grim message that we all have to change our way of life, that we need to take the metro, for instance, or buy small cars.

SPIEGEL: Because the average American can only handle positive messages?

Talbott: You can make fun of us all you want. But our people are right to ask: What are the benefits for us and for our country?

SPIEGEL: And what is the answer?

Talbott: America will get stronger if it both invents and makes use of innovative technology. America does not simply want to be green. America wants to make money off being green. It wants being green to reduce our dependency on Arab oil and to strengthen national security. Unlike the view of the Bush administration, in Obama's understanding there is no tension between energy, economic and environmental policy.

SPIEGEL: Won't the focus on global governance that you recommend for the US be undercut by the constant cost-benefit calculations of domestic policy?

Talbott: For a President Obama, a lot depends on combining domestic and foreign policies. An active climate policy would promote and renew America's leadership role, and the respect we would gain globally would reflect positively on us. America doesn't like being unpopular, but we will accept that if necessary. Still, we much prefer being liked.

Part 2: 'The Art of the Possible'

SPIEGEL: In Europe, the expectations for an Obama administration are probably even higher than in the United States. What will change for the Germans, the French and the British?

Talbott: The issue of finding the right policy for Afghanistan is going to be tough. Obama will try to persuade the Europeans that we have to fight the war in Afghanistan together. The Clinton name is also a global brand, and that will prove effective. Hillary Clinton comes off the Senate Armed Services Committee and understands the needs of NATO.

SPIEGEL: Which means that the pressure on the German government to deploy its troops in southern Afghanistan, where the Taliban insurgency is gaining ground, will increase?

Talbott: All parties are realistic and know about Germany's special historical sensitivities. They will speak respectfully with Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The Obama administration will practice politics as the art of the possible.

SPIEGEL: Another crucial issue in trans-Atlantic relations are ties with Russia. In Germany, nobody in a position of authority wants another confrontation with Russia.

Talbott: I expect that the United States and Europe will come closer together in their Russia policy. Just take the question: Should Georgia become a member of NATO?

SPIEGEL: Which President Bush supported and Chancellor Merkel spoke out against.

Talbott: I expect that the United States will return to its original position, which says that any addition of a new member state must enhance the security of the alliance as a whole. That principle would argue against the inclusion of a state such as Georgia, which is, in one sense or another, divided against itself.

SPIEGEL: Are you pleading for an end to NATO's so-called "eastward expansion"?

Talbott: No. I will always remember a conversation I once had with Chancellor Helmut Kohl. He told me that it was in Germany's interest to no longer be on the eastern edge of the West. I believe he was right. Therefore, we should not close our doors to future member states. The point now, with regard to Georgia and also to Ukraine, is to find artful words that exclude no one. That could help us in our relations with Russia to lower the temperature a little below the boiling point.

SPIEGEL: Perhaps if America didn't have plans to install a missile shield. Bush considers it absolutely necessary, and Moscow considers it unacceptable. How will an Obama Administration deal with this?

Talbott: I think Obama should be taken by his word here. He says that if this technology works, it should be deployed. He has not yet elaborated on what the criteria will be. This gives him time and latitude to study his options. He does not want to, and will not, repeat the mistakes of the Bush administration. On coming into office, it adopted the slogan "ABC" -- anything but Clinton's way, meaning everything is permitted except Clinton's policies. This attitude was wrong, and our new slogan should not be ABB -- anything but Bush's way.

SPIEGEL: It sounds like you aren't expecting any kind of about-face in US foreign policy, but rather selective changes at best.

Talbott: The new Obama administration will be very cautious. It will listen. It won't break with the past out of principle.

SPIEGEL: So Poland and the Czech Republic, which for Bush always were front line states against Putin's Russia, do not have any reason to worry about being alienated?

Talbott: It would be a great mistake if the new administration were to tell Poland and the Czech Republic, "Well, thanks for all that, but forget about your agreements with the United States. Russia doesn't like them." That will not happen.

SPIEGEL: Do you view Russia and Putin as being synonymous?

Talbott: Today's Russia is no longer the Russia of the Cold War, which means that more than one person is in a position of authority. President Dmitry Medvedev understands better than others in Moscow that Russia is a strong state in terms of its size, its military capability and its natural resources. But he also knows that the Russian economy is much too dependent on what it can dig and pump out of the ground.

SPIEGEL: Do you focus more on him than on Putin, who, is considered to be Moscow's ruler by the West?

Talbott: I focus on the effects of the new reality. I clearly remember August of 1968 when Soviet tanks rolled into Prague. Nobody then would have been allowed to say: "This will have serious consequences for the Soviet stock market." Whereas two days after Russian tanks rolled into Georgia, it was quite different. Today, Russia is part of a global system.

SPIEGEL: And the government in Moscow also accepts that?

Talbott: This summer, President Medvedev made a remarkable speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry in which he stated that Russia has always said what it doesn't like about Western policy in general and American policy in particular. But the time had come to say what they want to see and what the alternatives are. I am confident that President Obama will take him at his word. Next year's Munich Security Conference will be more fascinating than ever because for the first time all parties will meet.

SPIEGEL: And what is your forecast?

Talbott: We will soon have a very high level dialogue on a new European security architecture.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Talbott, we thank you for this interview.

Interview conducted by Mathias Müller von Blumencron and Gabor Steingart in Washington.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 10,00.html