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  1. #1
    Senior Member Brian503a's Avatar
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    Population and Our Changing World

    http://www.voanews.com/english/About/20 ... series.cfm

    Population and Our Changing World

    Global Population in Transition: The world's population did not reach one billion until the year 1830. Today there are 6.5 billion people sharing our planet, but U.N. population experts are revising some of their doomsday scenarios of the past because of an unexpected drop in the fertility rates of many developing countries.

    The populations of all industrialized countries except the U.S. are beginning to shrink, with notable drops expected over the next 30 years in Japan, Europe, and, especially, Russia. China's population is expected to stabilize by 2030, and India's by 2050. But in most of Africa (with the exception of southern Africa, because of the toll of HIV/AIDS) and parts of the Middle East, the demographic increase is expected to continue at high rates.

    It is precisely in those areas where both birth and death rates are high that population pressures and their consequences such as rapid urban growth and competition for cropland and water resources can have important implications for domestic stability and even international security. Demographers say that the risk of conflict diminishes when countries are able to make the transition from a population typified by short lives and large families to one with long lives and small families. About one-third of the world's nations have not yet made that transition, but in East Asian nations such as South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Malaysia, declines in fertility preceded successful democratic and free-market reforms. A similar transition is also underway in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    VOA's series, which includes both radio and television stories, looks at the following population-related issues, and will be available on our website:

    OVERVIEW OF CURRENT POPULATION TRENDS – Just as the threat of unmanageable population pressures used to be compared to the danger of nuclear war years ago, fears now center around the opposite trend, demographic decline, which is popularly believed to go hand-in-hand with economic decline. The United Nations (U.N.) predicts that population will be lower by 2050 than it is today in 50 of the world's countries. Most, but not all, are industrialized nations. Russia's population is expected to fall 22% in the next 45 years, and Ukraine's by an even higher rate. Japan's has already begun to shrink, and Italy and Germany are due to follow. Meanwhile, the population is expected to triple in many of the world's poorest countries. Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will account for much of the increase, potentially inhibiting economic and social progress and contributing to political instability. The U.N. says there are three main worldwide trends: the elderly now outnumber young people; urban dwellers will soon outnumber inhabitants of rural areas; and there is already a decline in the number of babies per woman.

    THE GROWTH OF MEGACITIES – Almost all of the world's population growth will take place over the next three decades in Third World cities. By 2030, say experts, more than 60% of the world's population will be living in cities. In 10 years, there may be 25 cities of more than 10 million people each. Though cities account for at least half of most nations' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and are generally thought to enhance employment and educational opportunities and access to health care, cities in developing countries usually lack the budgets, infrastructure, and amenities needed to provide their inhabitants with the basics for a decent life. These fast-growing cities mostly lack such things as clean water and waste removal, and urban spread removes surrounding agricultural lands from productivity.

    THE YOUTH BULGE – The U.N. says there are more than 100 countries where people aged 15 through 29 account for more than 40% of the population. Most are in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Many of these young people face dismal job prospects. In the absence of a secure livelihood, discontented youth may resort to violence or turn to insurgent organizations or political gangs as a source of social mobility and self-esteem. Unless the youthful populations decline and employment prospects improve, these countries will likely continue to pose a challenge to regional development and international security.

    POPULATION/CHINA /FARMLAND AND INDUSTRIALIZATION – China’s fast-growing economy and its rapidly expanding cities are depriving farmers of cropland faster than migrants from rural areas can find jobs in cities. There have recently been violent conflicts, especially in southern Guangdong province, over the expropriation of farmland for industrialization. China has at least 100 million migrant workers, who roam from city to city looking for work. When they can't find jobs, they return to their farm plots but often find it impossible to make a living there. When such farmers are forced to migrate, do they destabilize Chinese society?

    POPULATION/CHINA/ONE CHILD POLICY – China’s population is expected to stabilize by 2030 at 1.5 billion. Much of the credit for that is due to its draconian "one child" policy instituted in the 1970s. But while that policy helped to ease pressures on scarce resources and reduce once-widespread poverty, it is now aggravating demographic imbalances that could undermine these gains. In the next decade, the proportion of China's over-65 population will begin to grow while the working-age population will begin to shrink. That will impose huge financial burdens on a country struggling to meet its pension commitments to the elderly. Also, the Chinese cultural bias in favor of male babies has already created a surplus of men who have no hope of finding mates. Social scientists say unattached young men commit more violence than those who are married. Some Chinese experts believe the one-child policy should be replaced with a two-child policy to cope with the costs of a rapidly aging population. But other experts say that the desire for larger families has been blunted among urban Chinese because of the growing cost of health care, education, and housing that were once virtually free.

    POPULATION/RUSSIA – No country faces as severe a population decline as Russia - from 144 million people now to 101 million people by mid-century, according to predictions by population scholars. Disease, environmental hazards, and a decline in healthy newborns are to blame. Russian officials say 50% to 60% of Russian children suffer from a chronic illness. Deaths in Russia outnumber births, and most of those who die are between the ages of 20-49, the most productive segment of the population. Such a population decline has a devastating impact on the workforce, military recruitment, and family formation. Russia, along with Ukraine, also has the fastest growing rate of new HIV/AIDS cases in the world.

    POPULATION/AFRICA – Sub-Saharan Africa is the one area of the world where population continues to increase rapidly, despite high mortality rates (mostly due to HIV/AIDS). By 2050, many experts project, there will be 1.8 billion Africans - 20% of the world's population (today's 855 million Africans constitute 13.5% of the world's population). Despite the accompanying rise in the number of malnourished children, mothers will continue to have children because, in very poor countries, extra children are the only assurance most parents have that they will not starve in old age. U.N. experts say family planning is essential in lowering fertility rates, but must be accompanied by efforts to improve health services and the status of women.

    POPULATION/AFRICA/AIDS – Life expectancy may be rising nearly everywhere else, but not in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV/AIDS-related deaths are reducing the population and increasing the effect of an already large and persistent youth bulge. The premature deaths of teachers, technicians, and professionals threaten to leave behind millions of under-educated and under-supervised youths, many of whom were orphaned by AIDS. They also deprive countries of the most productive members of society. In just 10 years, the most afflicted countries (all of them in southern Africa) will have populations 19% lower than if the epidemic had not existed, and forecasters say most, including South Africa, will have lower populations in 2050 than they do today.

    POPULATION/EUROPE – Europe is aging faster than any other area of the world except Japan. Fertility is down to 1.5 children per woman in the 25-nation European Union (E.U.). In Italy, the median age will reach 50 as early as 2025. And as the number of workers falls, the numbers dependent on them will rise. European budgets will be strained as spending increases not only on pensions but also on health and long-term care. But it will be politically difficult to get taxpayers to foot those rising bills. One solution is for Europe to allow increased immigration of younger workers, but immigration on the scale needed to stop dependency ratios from rising may be politically impossible. The U.N. says Germany would need to take in more than 3 million workers a year for the foreseeable future. But in Germany there is resistance to such suggestions. European governments are already concerned about fast-growing Muslim minorities. Raising the retirement age is also unpopular in Europe. So as the continent ages, it could experience lower productivity and, consequently, a decline in its standard of living.

    POPULATION/U.S. – The U.S. is the only industrialized democracy or rich country experiencing population growth. In the past 10 years, the U.S. population has grown from 263 million to 300 million. As The Economist puts it, "if a willingness to reproduce is a measure of a rich country's confidence in the future, then America is supremely self-confident." But U.S. population growth also derives from the country's openness to immigration. The U.S. ability to absorb newcomers is the envy of other countries. Whereas Europe and Japan are aging, the U.S. population is getting younger, thanks in part to the faster reproduction rate among immigrants than among native-born Americans. In such immigrant-heavy cities as Los Angeles and Houston, Latinos account for half of all children younger than 14. When they begin to have families in a decade or two, the Latino share of the U.S. population will soar. This will assure the country of a large labor force and may mean that U.S. ties of family and culture will shift away from Europe to Latin America and other sources of immigration such as East and South Asia. But the U.S., like Europe, also faces fiscal problems in providing pensions and health care as its baby boomers retire. Some estimates suggest that by 2050, U.S. government debt could be as high as 100% of national income.

    POPULATION/ENVIRONMENT/NATURAL RESOURCES – The growth of the Chinese and Indian economies and the need to satisfy their thirst for finite natural resources like oil has led to a worldwide scramble to develop such resources and, inevitably, to higher prices for raw materials. Can developing countries with rapidly growing populations but without these resources afford to pay for them? How will they attract investment to develop alternatives? And as the land available for agriculture diminishes due to natural disasters or such factors as desertification, how can these countries avoid accelerating the growth of urban slums and their destabilizing influences?

    POPULATION/MIGRATION – In a world of conflict, natural disasters, and limited opportunities, the numbers of people fleeing their own countries to seek a better life elsewhere is growing. But these refugees, asylum-seekers, and other migrants often evoke fear and provoke anti-immigrant tensions in host countries. Most such migrants seek only to make a living or assimilate into their new culture, but in some cases they have aided or joined insurgencies. How do nations effectively absorb immigrants and integrate them into society?
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  2. #2
    Senior Member moosetracks's Avatar
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    I'm not an expert, but I hate the U.N. They need to be disbanded!
    Do not vote for Party this year, vote for America and American workers!

  3. #3
    Senior Member jp_48504's Avatar
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    you are not alone.
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  4. #4
    Senior Member
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    Never have figured out what it's for to begin with.
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  5. #5
    Senior Member jp_48504's Avatar
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    http://www.un.org/aboutun/history.htm
    The name "United Nations", coined by United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt, was first used in the "Declaration by United Nations" of 1 January 1942, during the Second World War, when representatives of 26 nations pledged their Governments to continue fighting together against the Axis Powers.

    States first established international organizations to cooperate on specific matters. The International Telecommunication Union was founded in 1865 as the International Telegraph Union, and the Universal Postal Union was established in 1874. Both are now United Nations specialized agencies.

    In 1899, the International Peace Conference was held in The Hague to elaborate instruments for settling crises peacefully, preventing wars and codifying rules of warfare. It adopted the Convention for the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes and established the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which began work in 1902.

    The forerunner of the United Nations was the League of Nations, an organization conceived in similar circumstances during the first World War, and established in 1919 under the Treaty of Versailles "to promote international cooperation and to achieve peace and security." The International Labour Organization was also created under the Treaty of Versailles as an affiliated agency of the League. The League of Nations ceased its activities after failing to prevent the Second World War.

    In 1945, representatives of 50 countries met in San Francisco at the United Nations Conference on International Organization to draw up the United Nations Charter. Those delegates deliberated on the basis of proposals worked out by the representatives of China, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and the United States at Dumbarton Oaks, United States in August-October 1944. The Charter was signed on 26 June 1945 by the representatives of the 50 countries. Poland, which was not represented at the Conference, signed it later and became one of the original 51 Member States.

    The United Nations officially came into existence on 24 October 1945, when the Charter had been ratified by China, France, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, the United States and by a majority of other signatories. United Nations Day is celebrated on 24 October each year.
    Contact them to ask questions at:
    inquiries@un.org
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  6. #6
    Senior Member butterbean's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moosetracks
    I'm not an expert, but I hate the U.N. They need to be disbanded!
    I agree with you moosetracks. It is just another corrupt organization that basically doesnt do anything but blame the U.S. for all the world's woes.
    RIP Butterbean! We miss you and hope you are well in heaven.-- Your ALIPAC friends

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  7. #7
    Senior Member vmonkey56's Avatar
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    The world reached it first billion in 1800's, since the beginning of TIME

    The World can not feed 10 billion people, folks

    Before 10 billion people the southern area below the equator will flood north of the equator. (Over population on United States)

    Water Shortage will start.

    Grain for bread becomes fungi and limited.

    Americans Wake Up
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