Thread: The Stock Market Crash Of 2011?

The Stock Market Crash Of 2011?



August 11th, 2011
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How far does the stock market have to go down before we officially call it a crash? The Dow is now down more than 2,000 points in just the last 14 trading days. So can we now call this "The Stock Market Crash of 2011"? Today the Dow was down 519 points. Yesterday, an announcement by the Federal Reserve indicating that the Fed would keep interest rates near zero until mid-2013 helped the Dow surge more than 400 points, but all of those gains were wiped out today. It turns out that the Federal Reserve was only able to stabilize the financial markets for a single day. Fears about the European sovereign debt crisis and the crumbling U.S. economy continue to dominate the marketplace. With each passing day, things are looking more and more like 2008 all over again. So what is going to happen if "The Stock Market Crash of 2011" pushes the U.S. economy into "The Recession of 2012"?

Just like in 2008, bank stocks are being hit the hardest. That was true once again today. Bank of America was down more than 10 percent, Citigroup was down more than 10 percent, Morgan Stanley was down more than 9 percent and JPMorgan Chase was down more than 5 percent.

Bank of America stock is down almost 50 percent so far this year. Overall, the S&P financial sector is down more than 23 percent in 2011 so far.

How soon will it be before we start hearing of the need for more bailouts? After all, the "too big to fail" banks are even bigger now than they were in 2008.

All of this panic is causing the price of gold to reach unprecedented heights. Today, gold was over $1800 at one point. If the current panic continues for an extended period of time, there is no telling how high the price of gold may go.

In the United States, much of the focus has been on the fact that the U.S. government has lost its AAA credit rating, but the truth is that the European sovereign debt crisis is probably the biggest cause of the instability in world financial markets right now.

The European Central Bank has decided to start purchasing Italian and Spanish debt, and there have been rumors that French debt could be hit with a downgrade. Europe is a total financial basket case right now and unless dramatic action is taken things are going to get progressively worse.

Of course the U.S. is also certainly contributing greatly to this crisis. The federal government is on track to have a budget deficit that is over a trillion dollars for the third year in a row. The U.S national debt is a horrific nightmare, but our politicians keep putting off budget cuts.

The debt ceiling deal that was just reached basically does next to nothing to cut the budget before the next election. Unless the "Super Congress" does something dramatic, the only "budget cuts" we will see before the 2012 election will be 25 billion dollars in "savings" from spending increases that will be cancelled.

The modest spending cuts scheduled to go into effect beginning in 2013 will probably never materialize. Whenever the time comes to actually significantly cut the budget, our politicians always want to put it off for another time.

But in the end, debt is always going to have its day. Our politicians can try to kick the can down the road all they want, but eventually a day of reckoning is going to come.

In fact, if the U.S. and Europe had not piled up so much debt, we would not be facing all of the problems we are dealing with now.

Things could have been so much different.

But here we are.

The truth is that this debt crisis is just beginning. There is no magic potion that is going to make all of this debt suddenly disappear.

Most Americans have no idea how much financial pain is coming. We have been living way beyond our means for decades, and now we are going to start paying for it.

Now that long-term U.S. government debt has been downgraded, huge numbers of other securities are also going to be affected. In fact, according to a recent Bloomberg article, S&P has already been very busy slashing the ratings on hordes of municipal bonds....

Standard & Poor’s lowered the AAA ratings of thousands of municipal bonds tied to the federal government, including housing securities and debt backed by leases, following its Aug. 5 downgrade of the U.S.
That is the thing about financial markets - once the dominoes start to fall, the ripple effects can be felt for a long, long time.

So if this stock market crash gets even worse, will the Federal Reserve respond with even stronger measures?

They have already basically promised to keep interest rates near zero for the next two years. So what else can the Fed do?

Well, many now believe that there is a very good chance that we could see another round of quantitative easing.

Not that more quantitative easing is going to help much of anything. Rather than helping the economy, the last round of quantitative easing just pushed commodity prices through the roof. But the Fed is unlikely to just sit there and do nothing while financial markets struggle.

But it is not just the financial markets that are having a difficult time right now. Bad news is coming in from all over the economy. The possibility that we could soon slip into another major recession is growing by the day.

Unfortunately, our economy is so weak already that a new recession would probably hurt even more than the last recession did.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, says that if we have another recession it "won't feel like a new recession. It would likely feel like a depression."

But the American people are in no mood for more economic pain. Every recent poll shows that Americans are already fed up.

For example, a brand new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 73 percent of the American people believe that the country is "on the wrong track".

So let's certainly hope that the current stock market crash does not set off another major global recession. We certainly do not need things to get significantly worse than they are right now.

But whether it hits now or later, the truth is that a whole lot of economic pain is on the way. The U.S. and Europe have been making really, really bad decisions for decades, and we are not going to be able to escape the consequences of those decisions.

The global financial system is one huge mountain of leverage, risk and debt. A collapse is inevitable.

When you build a house of cards on a foundation of sand, you should not be surprised when it comes crashing down.

The next wave of the economic collapse is coming, and those that are wise will get prepared.

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The Federal Reserve Saves The Stock Market?



August 10th, 2011
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The Federal Reserve has saved the stock market! Well, at least for a day. That was one heck of a "dead cat bounce" that we saw on Tuesday. Normally, after the kind of dramatic decline that we saw on Monday there is some sort of a rebound, but on Tuesday the market did not begin to soar until the Federal Reserve pledged to leave interest rates near zero until mid-2013. Once the Fed made their announcement, the market went haywire. At one point the Dow was down more than 200 points, but by the end of the day it was up 430 points. It was a desperate move for the Federal Reserve to pledge not to raise interest rates for the next two years, and it has stabilized financial markets for the moment. But what is the Fed going to do to save the stock market when it starts crashing next week or next month? The underlying financial fundamentals continue to get worse and worse. Europe is a mess, Japan is a mess and the United States is a mess. The Federal Reserve can try to keep all of the balls in the air for as long as possible, but at some point the juggling act is going to end and the house of cards is going to come crashing down.

This move may calm nerves for a day or two, but there is still a tremendous amount of fear out there at the moment. Many investors are pouring money into "safe havens" right now. Huge amounts of cash are being poured into U.S. Treasuries and the price of gold is absolutely soaring. The price of gold is up about $220 in just the last 30 days alone.

So how high could the price of gold go in the coming months? Well, analysts at JP Morgan are forecasting that the price of gold could hit $2,500 by the end of this year.

Yes, that is how wild things are becoming. The Federal Reserve is painting itself into a corner. Never before has the Fed pledged to leave interest rates near zero for the next two years. The following is an excerpt from the statement that the Fed released earlier today....

To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.
Needless to say, the rest of the world is not pleased by this nonsense from the Fed. Yes, the Fed has stabilized financial markets for the moment, but a lot of ill will is being created with the rest of the globe. The following is what Bruce Krasting had to say about how the rest of the world is going to react to this latest Fed move....

Brazil, Argentina, Korea, Indonesia are going to scream bloody murder over perpetual ZIRP. Russia is likely to get downright ugly with their rhetoric. I wouldn’t be surprised if they took this opportunity to vote with their feet and just abandon the dollar as a reserve holding. China will also make noise. They will make more calls for a new international currency to replace the dollar. The Central bankers in Japan and Switzerland are puking in the trashcan over this. Bernanke is exporting US deflation to them. Shame on the Fed for pursuing Beggar my neighbor policies. They deserve all the global criticism they are about to get.
The Federal Reserve is using up all of the ammunition it has available and the game has barely even begun.

Things are going to get a lot worse. The U.S national debt continues to pile up at lightning speed. The debt ceiling deal essentially does nothing to fix our debt problems. Thousands of businesses and millions of jobs continue to leave the United States. As a nation, we are constantly becoming poorer and we are constantly getting into more debt.

Meanwhile, Europe is on the verge of a financial meltdown and Japan has a "zombie economy" at this point.

Many fear that we could be on the verge of another major global recession. The following is how a recent Der Spiegel article described the current global financial situation....

Many economists have been pointing out that last week's panic resembled the fear that swept financial markets after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Then as now, banks stopped lending each money. Then as now, banks' cash deposits at the central bank doubled within days. The European Central Bank reacted by assuring banks of unlimited liquidity in the coming months. It was an emergency measure that led to short-term relief but sparked anxious questions among bankers and stock market players. How long can the central bank keep up its market-soothing liquidity operations before it finally loses its credibility, the most important asset of a central bank? Is the financial crisis about to escalate?
In the old days, the U.S. and Europe could just borrow gigantic stacks of cash in order to solve any problems. But now things are dramatically changing.

China's official news agency recently stated that the U.S. needs to understand that things are different now....

"The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone"
Not that the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are going to suddenly give up their old habits. The U.S. government is addicted to debt and the Fed is addicted to printing money. When push comes to shove, they are going to resort to their favorite tricks.

But at some point the rest of the world is not going to play along anymore. When that moment arrives, it is going to be very interesting to see what happens.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to slowly unravel, and people in this country are getting very angry. Millions of Americans families are barely scraping by right now. Most Americans just want someone to "fix" things, but unfortunately there are no easy "fixes" to our financial problems.

As our economic problems grow even worse, frustration inside the United States is going to continue to escalate. A brand new Rasmussen survey found that only 17 percent of Americans now believe that the U.S. government has the consent of the governed.

That was a brand new all-time low.

Faith in the major institutions of our society is already dangerously low and the economy is not even that bad yet.

As horrible as things are now, the truth is that this is rip-roaring prosperity compared to what is coming.

In the months and years ahead, America is going to be greatly tested. As the recent London riots have shown, things can spiral out of control very quickly.

When the economy completely collapses will America be able to handle it?

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A 634 Point Stock Market Crash And 8 More Reasons Why You Should Be Deeply Concerned That The U.S. Government Has Lost Its AAA Credit Rating



August 9th, 2011
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Are you ready for part two of the global financial collapse? Many now fear that we may be on the verge of a repeat of 2008 after the events of the last several days. On Friday, Standard & Poor's stripped the U.S. government of its AAA credit rating for the first time in history. World financial markets had been anticipating a potential downgrade, but that still didn't stop panic from ensuing as this week began. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 634.76 points, which represented a 5.5 percent plunge. It was the largest one day point decline and the largest one day percentage decline since December 1, 2008. Overall, stocks have fallen by about 15 percent over the past two weeks. When Standard & Poor's downgraded long-term U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+, it was just one more indication that faith in the U.S. financial system is faltering. Previously, U.S. government debt had a AAA rating from S&P continuously since 1941, but now that streak is over. Nobody is quite sure what comes next. We truly are in unprecedented territory. But one thing is for sure - there is a lot of fear in the air right now.

So exactly what caused S&P to downgrade U.S. government debt?

Well, it was the debt ceiling deal that broke the camel's back.

According to S&P, the debt ceiling deal "falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics."

As I have written about previously, the debt ceiling deal was a complete and total joke, and S&P realized this.

Forget all of the huge figures that the mainstream media has been throwing at you concerning this debt ceiling deal. The only numbers that matter are for what happens before the next election.

The only way that the current debt ceiling deal will last beyond the 2012 election is if Obama is still president, the Democrats still control the Senate and the Republicans still control the House. If any of those things change, this deal ceiling deal is dead as soon as the election is over.

Even if all of those things remain the same, there is still a very good chance that we would see dramatic changes to the deal after the next election.

So in evaluating this "deal", the important thing is to look at what is going to happen prior to the 2012 election.

When we examine this "deal" that way, what does it look like?

Well, Barack Obama and the Democrats get the debt ceiling raised by over 2 trillion dollars and will not have to worry about it again until after the 2012 election.

The Republicans get 25 billion dollars in "savings" from spending increases that will be cancelled.

The "Super Congress" that is supposed to be coming up with the second phase of the plan may propose some additional "spending cuts" that would go into effect before the 2012 election, but that seems unlikely.

So in the final analysis, the Democrats won the debt ceiling battle by a landslide.

25 billion dollars is not even 1 percent of the federal budget. The U.S. national debt continues to spiral wildly out of control, and our politicians could not even cut the budget by one percent.

Somehow our politicians believed that the rest of the world would be convinced that they were serious about cutting the budget, but it turns out that global financial markets are tired of getting fooled.

It has gotten to the point where now even the big credit rating agencies are being forced to do something. Not that they really have much credibility left. Everyone still remembers all of those AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities that imploded during the last financial crisis. The reality is that the big credit rating agencies are a bad joke at this point.

Several smaller credit rating agencies have already significantly slashed the credit rating of the U.S. government. But a lot of pressure had been put on the "big three" to keep them in line.

But now things have gotten so ridiculous that S&P felt forced to make a move.

Sadly, our politicians are still trying to maintain the charade that everything is okay. Barack Obama says that financial markets "still believe our credit is AAA and the world's investors agree".

Once again, Barack Obama is dead wrong.

The truth is that the credit rating for the U.S. government should have been slashed significantly a long time ago. This move by S&P was way, way overdue.

Moody's might be the next one to issue a downgrade. At the moment, Moody's says that it will not be downgrading U.S. debt for now, but Moody's also says that it has serious doubts about the enforceability of the "budget cuts" in the debt ceiling deal.

This crisis is just beginning. It is going to play out over time, and it is going to be very messy.

The following are 8 more reasons why you should be deeply concerned that the U.S. government has lost its AAA credit rating....

#1 The U.S. dollar and U.S. government debt are at the very heart of the global financial system. This credit rating downgrade just doesn't affect the United States - it literally shakes the financial foundations of the entire world.

#2 As the stock market crashes, investors are flocking to U.S. Treasuries right now. However, once the current panic is over the U.S. could be faced with increased borrowing costs. The credit rating downgrade is a signal to investors that they should be receiving a higher rate of return for investing in U.S. government debt. If interest rates on U.S. government debt do end up going up, that is going to make it more expensive for the U.S. government to borrow money. The higher interest on the national debt goes, the more difficult it is going to become to balance the budget.

#3 We could literally see hundreds of other credit rating downgrades now that long-term U.S. government debt has been downgraded. For example, S&P has already slashed the credit ratings of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from AAA to AA+. S&P has also already begun to downgrade the credit ratings of states and municipalities. Nobody is quite sure when we are going to see the dominoes stop falling, and this is not going to be a good thing for the U.S. economy.

#4 10-year U.S. Treasuries are the basis for a whole lot of other interest rates throughout our economy. If we see the rate for 10-year U.S. Treasuries go up significantly, it will suddenly become a lot more expensive to get a car loan or a home loan.

#5 The current financial panic caused by this downgrade is hitting financial stocks really hard. The big banks led the decline back in 2008, and it looks like it might be happening again. Just check out what CNN says happened to financial stocks on Monday....

Financial stocks were among the hardest hit, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) plunging 20%, and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) dropped roughly 15%.
#6 China is freaking out. China's official news agency says that China "has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets". If China starts dumping U.S. government debt that would make things a lot worse.

#7 There are already calls for the Federal Reserve to step in and do something. If the U.S. economy drops into another recession, will we see more quantitative easing? It seems like we have reached a point where the Fed is constantly in "emergency mode".

#8 The U.S. national debt continues to get worse by the day. Just check out what economics professor Laurence J. Kotlikoff recently told NPR....

"If you add up all the promises that have been made for spending obligations, including defense expenditures, and you subtract all the taxes that we expect to collect, the difference is $211 trillion. That's the fiscal gap"
Dick Cheney once said that "deficits don't matter", but the truth is that all of the debt we have been piling up for decades is now catching up with us.

The United States is in such a huge amount of financial trouble that it is hard to put into words. The days of easy borrowing for the U.S government are starting to come to an end. We have been living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world, and it has fueled a tremendous amount of "prosperity", but now the party is ending.

A whole lot of financial pain is on the horizon. Please prepare for the hard times that are coming.

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