Summit unlikely to extend the scope of NAFTA

Political opposition so ingrained that little progress expected to be made during meeting of Canadian, U.S. and Mexican leaders

From Friday's Globe and Mail
ALAN FREEMAN
August 17, 2007 at 3:38 AM EDT

OTTAWA — The leaders of Canada, the United States and Mexico may be ideological brothers but that doesn't mean they have much chance of extending the scope of the North American free-trade agreement at their summit next week.

While Canadian officials attempted to persuade journalists yesterday that "yes, there will be concrete achievements" from the 24-hour meeting at Quebec's Château Montebello on Monday and Tuesday between Prime Minister Stephen Harper, U.S. President George W. Bush and Mexican President Felipe Calderon, generalities multiplied and specifics were still lacking.

The three leaders are all political conservatives with a strong belief in free markets and a desire for more continental integration. But political opposition to the idea in their respective countries is so ingrained that they are unlikely to get very far beyond agreeing to stronger rules on non-controversial issues like toy safety, preparation for an avian-flu pandemic and the emissions from experimental nuclear reactors.

"I'm going to be very honest," said Jean-François Prud'homme, a Quebec-born political scientist who teaches at the Colegio de Mexico in Mexico City. "I don't think there will be very much coming out of it.

"It's my impression that it's not a good time for the idea of North America, for many domestic reasons. It's not a very popular idea."

"Any kind of deepening of NAFTA for the U.S. is a non-starter for an administration that has virtually no political capital left," said Michael Shifter, vice-president of policy at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank. "Bush is so wounded, it's hard to believe there is going to be a lot of initiative left."

The trilateral annual summits, held under the lofty title of the Security and Prosperity Partnership, date back to 2005. The first summit took place in Waco, Tex., with the intent of expanding on NAFTA, which began life in 1994 purely as a trade agreement. But with public opposition in all three countries to the loss of sovereignty that integration would bring, the leaders have been taking baby steps towards their goal.

Instead of moving ahead with a customs union or more labour mobility - policies that would require approval by their respective legislatures - the leaders have opted for a more cautious approach, leaning instead on meetings of bureaucrats and harmonization of regulations.

"There's no attempt at this time for deeper integration," was the word from one Canadian official yesterday.

Mr. Bush's efforts to get immigration reform passed in the U.S. Congress and regularize the status of more than 10 million illegal immigrants in the country - most of them Mexicans - have proved a complete failure as members of his Republican Party massively rejected the bill.

Mr. Calderon has laid the blame on the U.S. Congress, yet the issue still puts a chill on his relations with Mr. Bush. And to broaden his base of domestic support, Mr. Calderon has skillfully re-energized his relations with the left-leaning leaders of Brazil, Argentina and Nicaragua in recent months. He has spent time mending fences with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a relationship that had been badly damaged under the mandate of Mr. Calderon's predecessor, Vicente Fox.

There's talk of a massive aid package from Washington to Mexico to finance improved policing and a crackdown on the drug cartels smuggling cocaine into the United States. But it's unlikely the package will be ready in time for next week's meeting.

The bilateral talks between Mr. Harper and Mr. Bush are expected to touch on the perennial issues of Canada-U.S. relations: passport rules on the border, the NATO mission in Afghanistan, climate change and the situation in the Middle East.

Mr. Calderon - who arrives with his family in Ottawa tomorrow and spends the weekend with the Harpers at the Prime Minister's official country residence at Harrington Lake - will leave his official bilateral meeting with Mr. Harper until Wednesday morning, before he heads back to Mexico City.

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