| Item |
Level 1 |
Level 2 |
Level 3 |
| Duration |
Short – maybe up to a week or two |
Medium – perhaps up to a year |
Longterm |
| Likelihood of Occuring |
Varies regionally, but between likely and definite every 5 – 10 years |
Take your best guess. A disruptive solar storm = 12% chance every 10 years. Other risks = you decide. |
More likely than you’d wish for. What are the chances of Bird Flu evolving and a global pandemic wiping out a huge slice of the world’s population? Might Iran or N Korea detonate an EMP over the US? etc. |
| Return to Normalcy |
Assured |
Very likely |
Not for a long time, maybe generations |
| Regional Scope |
Probably local and limited |
Extensive, possibly national |
Definitely national, maybe continental, possibly impacting much/all the world |
| External Assistance |
Yes, expected |
Maybe some, but not much and such resource as there is will be massively over-extended and unable to cope |
Probably none for extended periods of time |
| Survivability if Unprepared |
Yes with some inconvenience and discomfort |
Marginal to low |
Very low |
| Social Disruption |
Possibly some limited opportunistic rioting and looting, brought under control within a week or so |
Major, probably new forms of small community government and policing programs will spring up to create pockets of order among much lawlessness |
Complete. Organized gangs will dominate |
| Relocation |
Can survive in your normal abode |
Due to breakdown of city services, need to relocate |
Essential |
| Food strategy |
Not a constraint |
You’ll survive by eating through your stockpiles of food in the hope by the time you’ve eaten it all, order will be restored |
Your stockpiles of food will give you time to create your own ongoing food sources and to become self sufficient |
| Energy |
Some candles, flashlights, warm blankets, open fires, and a generator |
You’ll reduce your energy needs and rely on a generator and stockpiled fuel, perhaps using some in-place renewable energy sources too. |
Stockpiled fuel will be used carefully as you transition to energy independence and renewable sources |
| Defense |
Stay at home. Biggest threat will probably be rude/pushy neighbors. Hopefully no lethal threats or responses needed. |
Moderately uncoordinated groups of starving people or opportunistic raiders, will probably be able to be repelled by presentation of weapons and maybe occasional skirmishes. They are looking for easy targets. |
Organized groups will battle among themselves for regional supremacy, and will ‘fight to the finish’ to take over the assets and resources of others. Expect stolen military weapons as well as civilian rifles/shotguns/pistols to be used. |
| Transportation |
Stay at home |
Necessary to get to your retreat. Little need to travel outside your retreat boundaries. |
Necessary to get to your retreat. Occasional travel to trade with other groups, roads degraded, few mechanized vehicles. Pushbikes and horse drawn carts become the norm. Travel is dangerous due to risks from marauders. |
| Communication |
Hopefully some normal forms of comms remain operative – radio, tv, land line, cell phone, internet. |
Traditional comms largely degraded or disrupted. Short-range two-way radios to keep in touch with other members of your group. Shortwave radio receiver for general news. |
Traditional comms all gone. Long range two-way radio for comms within your group, and to interact with other groups and to understand the world situation and what the future may bring. |
| Group Size |
Small. You can survive just fine, even if alone. |
Medium. Your group/community will essentially be the people who share the retreat with you, providing social interaction, extra skills and additional manpower for some tasks. |
Large. You need access to as broad a range of skills as possible, and in a nearby region due to dangers and difficulties of traveling. |
| Cost of Preparing |
Low – less than $10,000; probably less than $1,000. |
High – More than $100,000; potentially as much as $1 million (but possibly shared among a group of people). |
Maximum : Everything you can afford and more besides. Definitely requires group participation to make high-cost items affordable. |
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